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The Italian bomb under the EU is ready to explode

The Italian bomb under the EU is ready to explode

30 May 2018 LJ cover – Итальянская бомба под Евросоюзом готова взорваться
Tags: EU, Italy, Europe, Economics, Analytics, Eurozone

The European crisis is coming back and soon you will see again how all the media will be discussing the collapse of the EU or not, well, whether the eurozone will fall apart or not. This is an important moment for Russia, because the geography can not be canceled, and the European Union is at least our big neighbor, and this is also the most important market for Russian energy carriers, and the EU is sometimes a source of problems, and of course - the EU is the place, where our neighbors on the globe are so desperate. What is important for us is what will happen to Europe also because now Europe is at a crossroads and it must choose between subordination to Washington and struggle for its own freedom. And another reason to closely monitor the situation in Europe is that we live in a globalized world in which the economies of all countries are very much interconnected and if in Europe an economic panic or a real crisis begins, with bankruptcies, defaults or hyperinflation, the entire planet will be literally kolbasit, and it's good for sure nobody will be.

So, why am I talking about the return of the European crisis. Do you remember how a few years ago, the European Union together with the IMF jointly saved Greece, whose bankruptcy could lead to the fact that many European banks that lent to the Greeks hundreds of billion euros would go bankrupt? Remember, as in Greece they discussed the possibility of withdrawing from the euro area, there was a referendum on the IMF ultimatum, and eventually the Greeks were pressed to the nail, so much so that some Greek politicians compare this situation to the German occupation. Well, now it's still worse, because the issue of the bankruptcy of Greece is gradually appearing on the agenda, and the question of leaving the whole of Italy from the euro area - and Italy is the third largest economy of the European Union, and it's far from the fact that the EU itself, not to mention a single European currency, can survive such a catastrophe.

The Italian crisis began after the parliamentary elections brought to power a coalition of Eurosceptic parties. At first, everyone thought that there would be no crisis, because right-wing and left-wing Eurosceptics, as always, quarreled among themselves and they would not be able to form a government. Two Eurosceptic parties "League of the North" and "Movement of 5 Stars" really swore for two months, but then they were able to agree and create a common program of actions, which among other things provides for the immediate lifting of sanctions from Russia, as well as very tough negotiations with Brussels, and at these talks it was supposed to put the question squarely: either Brussels allows Italy to spend more money on itself, that is, to increase the budget deficit, or Italy burns bridges and leaves the Eurozone.

This, of course, caused horror in Germany and France, European officials were shocked by this approach, well, they took advantage of the latest available lever of influence on Italy - they convinced the Italian president to refuse approval of the new government. It seems to be a victory of the European Union over democratically elected Italian politicians, but instead of winning a crisis has turned out. The fact is that Italy is actually a parliamentary republic and the president performs mostly ceremonial functions, and even more: Italian President Sergio Mattarella actually issued a mandate to form a government to the same Eurosceptics, but then simply withdrew it because of that , that the government was the Minister of Finance, which did not like European officials.

By the way, here we are pinned over Ukraine with its fake lack of independence, in which US Vice President Biden dismisses independent prosecutors, but in this example it is clear that even in such a serious country as Italy, with independence, to say the least, not everyone is order.

In general, Eurosceptics are going to either arrange an impeachment for the president, or go to early elections, which they will most likely gain with an even greater margin, because Italians are not Ukrainians, they do not like when their freedom is limited.

CNN writes that now early elections can turn into a referendum on Italy's withdrawal from the eurozone, and this, not to mention the fact that the parties affected by the president's actions may try to hold a direct referendum on this matter, especially since they had such a point in general program.

In general, the next few months will be very important not only because Italy's exit from the eurozone can destroy it, but also because the exit from the euro zone is likely to be accompanied by a massive default on Italian debts for hundreds of billions of euros, and this is already a recipe for the crisis, which can easily spread not only to Europe, but also to the whole world.

Against this background, many may not notice at all that the new Italian government, if Eurosceptics still can bring it to power, will simply veto another extension of the sanctions against Russia. It will be amusing if Italy, and not Germany or France, becomes the country that will kill European sanctions, of course, no one expected such a surprise. We have a very interesting summer.

Ruslan Ostashko
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