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Mark 26 on your calendar in 2019 in May. On this day, Europe may not become

Mark 26 on your calendar in 2019 in May. On this day, Europe may not become

August 12 2018 LJ cover – Отметьте у себя в календаре 26 мая 2019 года. В этот день Европы может не стать
Tags: EU, Politics, Elections, Analytics, Europe

The political panorama of the Old World has radically changed after the coming of the supporters of independence from the EU, and Italy has become the locomotive of this front. Now she is trying to win the institutions of Brussels at the nearest pre-election meeting.

The League League, which Matteo Salvini began to talk about, or the League of Nations, or whatever it is called, if it ever sees it, has already become the nightmare of Brussels and most of the chancellery of the Old World. In the minds of the key date, 26 of 2019, when the four-day marathon will finally complete the voting in the course of the European elections, firmly settled.

Ten and a half months in the flaming era of unfrozen policy is a grand period. However, the inertia of favor seems to inflate the sails of the approval of the supporters of independence, as one can judge from the polls. They are stimulated by the general awareness at the moment of a growth that can not be stopped, supported mainly by the migration crisis. For the European Union, and this in itself is a paradox, these will be the most political elections of all time, and at the same time they can signify, if not its end, at least sharp changes and changes.

Italy is the engine of the anti-system revolution. "League" and "Five Star Movement", which shared the baton at the top of the power, go side by side, receiving much more 50%, and it will be necessary to check whether they will be able to keep this pace during a difficult test in the government. In Germany, Merkel's difficulties are connected with the internal affairs of the party, with an external threat from the ally in the government, the Social Democrats who lost three points (18,3) and collided, secondarily, with the energetic rise of the party "Alternative for Germany" (13,6), the movement , formed quite recently and implicated in xenophobia and extreme right-wing views.

If we continue the conversation about the representatives of the heaviest weight category, then in France there is a countertrend, where Marine Le Pen lost the race for the Champs-Elysee, slid down to 15%, while the party of President Emmanuel Macron with possible allied centrists from Modem (Bayrou, Bayrou) reached 27%. But pay attention: the government, frightened by a series of terrorist acts and seeking to gain a number of right-wing votes, carries out the dangerous policy of the "National Assembly" (Rassemblement national) in the issue of migrants, like the new "National Front". And voters in the supranational vote can again give preference to the original.

Robust positions at the helm of Hungary is Viktor Orbán, who has an absolute majority and is a model for Salvini. Moreover, he watches the growth of the "Jobbik" party on the right front (16%), and in general the whole Visegrad group is driving a wave of possible genetic change in the composition of the Brussels parliament, which because of Brexit, will remain without the party "Ukip" Nigel Faraj (Nigel Farage), one of the first who started internal combustion engines of people who spoke "against all".

Austria Kurz chancellor (Kurz), threatening to close Brennero (and the EU presidency), Holland Wilders and the North Europeans, increasingly torn between "True Finns" and "Swedish Democrats" (the name usurped by those who call themselves "sincere patriots "), Complement the attack against Europe. At the same time, it is still necessary to determine the attitude of the Mediterranean states (with the exception of Italy), most stricken by the wave of refugees and the financial crisis. In Spain, the socialists rule, after the scandal that shook the popular parties, in Portugal the left keeps in unusually good shape, and in Greece, despite the declining approval level, Citrus still manages to stay afloat.

If any predictions are still premature, and there are too many unknowns that need to be taken into account, to date, the trend line is traced extremely clearly. Popular parties must first of all confirm their strength, albeit through a reduction in seats in parliament, which will be about 100 seats. At the same time, it will be necessary to understand whether the socialists will be able to retain the second place, given the populist offensive (and 41%, which Matteo Renzi received four years ago, indicate that that era is gone). The key word is "change". To them, most Europeans aspire (56%, and the Italians share is higher, it is 67%), and they would like to see these changes implemented by movements opposing the establishment. This follows from a poll conducted by "Kantar Public" for "Eurobarometer", among 27601 residents of 28 countries-members of the European Union. Hence, however, not always logical opinions follow, for example, 70% of the respondents believe that if you are always "against", it does not bring positive results. And more than two-thirds positively assess the belonging of their state to the European Union (in our country, historically adjusted pro-European, this indicator decreased to 39%). As for the reasons for concern, then to the surprise, the first place is occupied by the fight against terrorism (49%), outrunning youth unemployment (48%), the third place in immigration (45%), the fourth - the economic crisis (42%). This rating in Italy looks completely different, and the absence of serious Islamist terrorist attacks played a significant role here, the problems are lined up as follows: immigration - 66%, unemployment - 60%, economy and growth - 57%, terrorism - 54%.

Polls are like photos: they fix the present day, which, incidentally, is a bit out of focus. While the election urns of the next spring are a film, a moving action. The plot provides unexpected twists and turns, intrigues, contradictions, it is necessary to outline the narrative arc of the characters. The main paradox is that the authors of the slogan "masters at home" would like to see the so hated by them Brussels solved the issue of refugees. And it is better if they are placed in other people's houses. It is here that a conflict of interests arises between the possible allies of the League of Leagues, the potential wedge in the habitual watershed between the right and the left. Matteo Salvini and Premier Giuseppe Conte mathematically played the percentage of satisfaction in the issue of the agreement on migrants at the last European council: 70%? 80%?

So they want to hide the actual reality of the failure of their muscle-building policy, carried out primarily by their potential allies. The Visegrad group, mainly, smoothed out the ostentatious division of the understanding of the problem by accepting the allocation of quotas only on a voluntary basis, without any coercion and thus throwing the ball on the field of those states where the refugees first come. Of course, the yellow and blue government can respond with the eternal closure of ports, abandoning a significant share of the progress achieved in the West on the road to civil freedom. This will also strike a blow to the idea of ​​Europe, which was formed mainly in the last 70 years. This additional blow, and it is painful to say, will have to those who have already suffered not only from groups of "opponents", but also from those who call themselves on paper the creators of the unity of the Old World.

Franco-German locomotive, which should take us in the direction opposite to the locomotive Salvini, coughs and weaves. He did not take advantage of the macroscopic errors of the past and repeats them with serious consequences. At the beginning of the Greek crisis, another key test, Chancellor Angela Merkel waited half a year to accept the assistance program for the sake of retaining power in her country, because there was an election in North Rhine-Westphalia, and she feared the anger of the German electorate.

Result: the salvation of Athens turned into a problem, and in the end it will cost four times as much. Similarly, now, in order to calm the insurgency of its interior minister, Horst Seehofer, she rushes along the extreme right path, opposing migrants, and overturns the position thanks to which she was three years ago a knight defending European values. In France, on the legendary land of human rights protection, President Macron, having defeated Marin Le Pen, borrowed, however, from her some ideas, it is enough to recall that he spoke of Ventimiglia and Bardonecchia, which are partly the legacy of Batabaclan and Nice.

But in this way he pursues the identity between immigration and terrorism. We are not present on "feasts" and "cruises" on the yachts of desperate Salvini, the Minister of the Interior, who leads a permanent election campaign with the help of tweets. But, of course, we follow the populists in themes that feed the perception of fear (cautiously, perception: the number of arrivals has sharply decreased, the invasion is a scarecrow that was shaken astutely). In this respect, antisystemic movements won, because they managed to impose their agenda on the whole political picture. July photography is the triumph of national egoism. It remains a little over ten months to change the plot.

La Repubblica, Italy
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