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Russian diplomacy returned Assad to the south of Syria

Russian diplomacy returned Assad to the south of Syria

July 4 2018 LJ cover – Российская дипломатия вернула Асаду юг Сирии
Tags: Syria, Middle East, Army, War in the Middle East, Militants, Analyst, Diplomacy

Thanks to the negotiators of the Center for the reconciliation of the warring parties, immediately 27 settlements in the provinces of Kuneitra, Suwayda and Deraa went over to Damascus. Now the Syrian troops are rapidly advancing towards the Jordanian border, almost without resistance. This motivates Western liberals to slander the successes of Russian diplomacy.

Now we can say that the province of Suweida has come under the control of the government army almost completely, although small pockets of resistance persist in the west, as well as in the Deraa area. At the same time, there is almost no doubt that control over the border with Jordan will be finally restored in the very near future, with the exception of the At-Tanf area, which still has an American military base that blocks the destruction of "irreconcilable" militants that accumulate under the her "umbrella."

The last significant and still uncontrolled Damascus zone in the south of Syria will now remain the focus of resistance Igil * on the Golan Heights. Jihadists distribute leaflets, in which they urge "to fight to the last", but the number of those who want to do it is getting smaller every day.

The speediness of the operation for the liberation of Suweida and Deraa is directly related to successful negotiations for surrender with the grouping, Shabab as-Sunna or, in Russian, Sunnah Youth (Sunna is an oral tradition of the life and sayings of the Prophet Muhammad and the righteous caliphs, and also their scientific interpretation, in fact, the second main component of Islam after the Koran, a very conditional "analogue" of the New Testament). This grouping is exclusively local, with headquarters in the town of Busra ash-Sham. And not so much the jihadist (although it was adjacent to the notorious "Djebhat an Nusra" and the so-called Southern Front), exactly how young and semi-bandit, consisting mainly of "clear-cut boys in the neighborhood". For several years, they managed to hold power on a large part of Suwayda.

In addition to tortures and murders of captured officers and parliamentarians, Shabab as-Sunna is known for constant squabbles within its leadership, including a couple of "military coups" with the killing of parents and relatives of overthrown "amirs." Now the grouping is headed by a certain Colonel Nasim Abu Ezz, but according to other sources, most of the "youth" recognize leader Ahmad al-Oud, who settled in Busre Al-Sham with loyal parts. Actually, this dual power is a direct result of one of the August 2016 coups.

After fairly short talks with representatives of the Russian Center for Conciliation of the Parties, Ahmad al-Oud agreed not only to surrender Busur ash-Sham, but also to transfer equipment and heavy weapons to the control of the Russian military police. In response, his militants were promised inclusion in the list of the 5 mechanized "volunteer" corps of the SAA as a local militia. And 5 Corps is part of the "new" army, it is armed and trained already by Russian advisers.

Actually, this was the meaning of the peace agreement for the Shabab as-Sunnah fighters. To leave the native city and leave for Idlib - to another climatic zone with a different dialect of the Arabic language - they did not smile, especially since there are simply no ideological and religious attitudes that would allow them to adapt to this "preserve" among the freezed Islamists. They just wanted to survive and did not want to leave - and they were given such an opportunity.

Earlier, the group "Jaysh al-Islam" in East Gut chose a "ticket to Idlib", where they were quickly and finally cleared by local groups with the open support of the Turks. So look now, what is really more profitable.

The decision of Shabab as-Sunnah not only to lay down its arms, but in fact to cross over to the side of Damascus caused sharp criticism from those groups that continue lingering resistance in the west of the province of Deraa. It is easy to understand and easy: after handing over Busr Al-Sham, Ahmad al-Oud's militants not only opened the way for the government troops to the Jordanian border, but also deprived those who continue to resist in the west of Deraa and near the border with Israel. Resist, however, it turns out so-so.

Along with loud diplomatic victories, there are a number of local failures. So, over the past day, government troops of Syria lost on the march two tanks that were podbitny from roadside bushes from US ATGM TOW. Here it is interesting that: in due time "Shabab as-Sunna" was in the list of recipients of American anti-tank missiles. It is difficult to even guess what guided the CIA, passing these guys such weapons. True, the tanks were tucked under Tafas, that is, in the opposite part of Busar ash-Sham part of the province, where the territory, held by the "irreconcilable", begins. And tanks, of course, sorry.

In general, the local population welcomes government and Russian troops, but part of the militants together with their families reached out to At-Tanf and Deraa (Jordan closed its border prudently). Filtration using mukhabarat is now inevitable, but not critical. In the rear of the government troops, there were also several raids by "irreconcilables", but they are also associated with disassembly inside local groups, and not with resistance to Damascus.

Many began to compare what is happening in southern Syria to Chechnya at the end of the second campaign, when small local groups - more gangster than ideological groups - negotiated with the advancing Russian troops to go over to Moscow in exchange for a temporary amnesty, and if no serious crimes were observed for them , received the desired. This comparison is lame on both legs, but in general the old, already well-tried "pressure-negotiations" tactics are still working well.

Moreover, the government troops almost ceased to go into frontal attacks on the enemy's positions, limiting themselves to a preliminary demonstration of strength. The international group supporting the remnants of the anti-Asad opposition calls such tactics "barbaric", which raises the question: where were you the last five years? It is alleged, in particular, that on Tafas and Smilim, separated by one hundred kilometers along the front line from the south to the east, after the attack on the tank column, about a thousand RCDM missiles fell, and Russian aviation "lyutuet." But at the same time there is no data on losses among the civilian population at all, and if someone does not want to surrender to the most favorable conditions, this is their problem.

Eugene Kroutikov
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