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Turkish gambit

Turkish gambit

July 31 2018
Tags: Analytics, Economics, Turkey, Politics, BRICS

In any sufficiently stable system, which exists a lot of time, there are unique subsystems that are exactly under it sharpened. A classic example is different kinds of unique organisms that were built in the course of evolution into extremely narrow ecological niches and can exist only as long as these niches exist. Evolution is no longer for them - the threshold that divides the real world and the place in which they are is too great.

As an example, we can cite some microorganisms living in current active volcanoes, hot streams. Yes, they have no competition, since no one can live at this temperature, but if the volcano suddenly goes out, then there is no chance of surviving. Since the evolutionary path to a transition to normal energy supply requires a very long time - and the temperature of the stream will fall almost instantly. In this way, by the way, dinosaurs died out: they were too dependent on a warm climate. But mammals, for which the climate was not so important, quite evolved.

In the economy, the situation is similar in general. If the economy of a country is sufficiently diversified, then, of course, the standard of living of the population there may not be as high as in some other countries (in part because the support for diversification usually requires additional resources), but if anything, (the monumental in scale), then countries with an excessively specialized economy will collapse (and the stronger the cataclysm, the more countries will collapse), but the presence of diversification gives a resource that can not simply be reconstructed to new conditions,

A typical example of specialized countries is the Baltic countries and, say, Bulgaria, which were completely oriented to demand from the USSR. And, accordingly, as soon as this source disappeared, they collapsed, and to the state of total economic catastrophe. Who remembers today that in the 70-ies the industry of Bulgaria was more than Greece and Turkey combined? Who remembers the industrial city of Riga? And what should these countries do in the current situation - it is completely unclear whether they can be helped at all without allocating a special resource for this.

But there are also larger countries that have become hostages to the existing Bretton Woods system built on the dollar. And among them there are quite large, for example, there is a serious question of how China will feel as the world demand falls. And the US too much sat down on the drug needle of the dollar issue. However, today is not about them. Today about Turkey.

Turkey is very qualitatively integrated into the "Western" system of division of labor (which after the year 1991 became the world), having received rather large external markets, primarily in the European Union. External - it is important, to maintain a high standard of living of the population and a developed economy on the basis of domestic markets, Turkey can not, the population is not enough. But Turkey will not be able to keep foreign markets in the event of economic cataclysms and this became clear after it was frankly "thrown out" with regard to accession to the EU. Here are the countries of Eastern Europe - yes, their own in the board. And Turkey - no-no!

And it might even not have reached the collapse of the EU (although it has already come to pass), as simply tightening the rules for the export of Turkish products puts the country's economy in front of extremely serious problems. It categorically needs foreign markets. And, since there are serious national elites in Turkey, let them fight among themselves and tough enough, they put this question quite seriously.

There were many ideas: from the restoration of the Ottoman Empire to the reincarnation of the "Turkic world", or, if you like, the Turkic kaganate. And here it turned out a lot of new and interesting. In the part of the Kaganate, the problems started immediately: different Turkic countries and territories were inscribed in their economic structures and it quickly became clear that it was necessary to give up local advantages for the sake of "Turkic friendship" at once, but the advantage would be "someday". Such a moment local elites may not survive (like our bacteria on the volcano), and therefore they did not support this idea.

Against the Ottoman Empire were immediately two forces. The first one is political Islam, which well remembered its status in the Ottoman Empire (the ministry is the ministry). But the second ... At the time when Turkey began to wake up this project, it was not very clear, but it became clear after the breksite. Britain needs a currency zone and it is quite aimed at the Arab world (I wrote about this not so long ago). And if we talk about the aggregate resource, then in Britain, after all, it will still be higher than that of Turkey. In general, it did not grow together.

That is, it turns out that it is not possible to create markets on its own basis, the old (EU) is bursting at all the seams, what remains? And the Eurasian Union remains. But to enter it immediately means to create a situation similar to that of the Turkic countries in relation to the "Turkic world": a loss from the loss of the EU markets at once, and a potential win somewhere in the distance. But you can not stand it any longer: rules in the alternative to the West system, which is already developing, already somehow, at least, are written, moreover, judging by the meeting "on the Elbe", that is, I wanted to say, in Helsinki, this the process is even, in general, recognized, it is urgent to be built in there to be among the founders. Which receive some additional bonuses simply on the fact of the existence.

And Turkey, which is characteristic, came up with a move! It is quite normal and reasonable: to join the BRICS! Yes, this is not the Eurasian Union, but not NATO. It can not be scolded for it (China, India, Brazil! - decent countries, even from the US point of view), a demonstrative step has been taken, one can try to deal with potential bonuses. Well, the next step, as you know, is the entrance to the Eurasian Union, but with some additional bonuses (both as the largest economy after Russia and as the first country that was not part of the USSR). Here, however, there are some competitors (who said Japan?), But they are still lagging behind ...

All of the above, of course, only reasoning. But, given that their base part I described yet 15 years ago, one can suspect that there is some kind of rational thought in them. Moreover, at that time neither BRICS nor BRIC existed, but only logic. Which remained.

Mikhail Khazin

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