So, the NATO summit is over. In principle, this summit went exactly as we predicted. Nothing that could shock, did not happen. The owner showed the place to his servants. Simply put, Trump frightened Europe. I was frightened that until the end of the meeting with Putin, Europe would sizzle in the corner and do what Trump said.
What for? The answer is also obvious. The American president showed Putin his trump cards in the upcoming game. More precisely, showed one trump card. The complete controllability of the NATO bloc and its complete disregard for the opinions of the rest like the Allies. The remaining trump cards were only marked with a dotted line.
To be honest, I do not understand the wide-ranging discussions of what happened. Someone else did not understand what it was? Taking advantage of the fact that our readers, for the most part, are somehow connected with the army and defense in general, we can call this an ordinary attack. By the type of aviation against the umba-yumba tribe.
I flew, I made noise, even shot somewhere a couple of times. And he flew in, knowing that the stone ax before his helicopter did not exactly good-bye. And darts will not do any harm. All in American style.
What were the main conversations about? Not about relations with Russia, not about Ukraine, or about Syria. In general, the main message of Trump has not changed. "Dengi, give the money," as Osya and Kisa demanded for their dance in the famous satirical work.
Here and now, Europe should give 2% of GDP for NATO needs. And then 4%! So what? Will the Germans or the French rush to fulfill this demand? Well, do not laugh. The governments of these countries have a lot of obligations to their own people. Obligations that must be met.
What is the alternative for Merkel or Macron? In principle, for all leaders of European states? To fulfill Trump's demands is to lose the next election and disappear from the political scene. Do not fulfill the requirements - get another tantrum from the United States.
But the main thing is not in percentage of GDP. The main thing is that 20% of the NATO budget, which is laid for the purchase of American weapons. It is obvious. Trump needs to create a stable and fairly large arms market in Europe. This will solve economic problems primarily in the United States. New jobs, expansion of defense industry enterprises, funds for the development of new weapons systems.
And the second question is from the same field. The US policy towards some "fighters for freedom", "rebels". "partisans" has not changed. Americans will support these movements. With what? Where to get the weapon?
Warehouses that remained in Europe since the times of the Soviet Union, largely emptied. But there is a weapon, which is in the armament of the European armies. Europe buys American weapons and spends almost nothing to recycle the old Soviet weapons. It simply transmits it to the US. And then this weapon emerges already with various "fighters".
The next question from the "dotted" trump cards was the question of the "Northern Stream 2". A lot of conversations, a lot of comments ... A sense?
Americans at all will not be able to satisfy the European gas market, even at 50%. Construction of gas carriers and terminals for LNG is also costly. Those that are built, in the case of even the maximum volume of gas supplies from the US, are fully capable of reprocessing all this.
Tales about caring for our smaller brothers from the neighboring state with Russia, let us also leave aside. Every donkey wears his ears. Trump, respectively, American, and not Ukrainian. And Germans are more interested in German ears.
The evasive responses of the American president have clearly shown that he understands the inevitability of the SP-2. Europeans, perhaps, would like to keep the Ukrainian gas transportation system in an unchanged form, but it's scary. Everyone remembers 2009 year. Remember and understand that you can expect anything from Kiev today.
That is why this construction is connected not so much with the benefit of reducing the number of transit countries, but with the very notorious energy security. In general, it seems to me that the United States does not currently apply for gas markets throughout Europe. Enough Eastern European countries.
Ukraine today for the United States has become, as I wrote earlier, quite a big headache. Everything was tired of this regime. And there is no special benefit from Kiev for either Europe or the US. Russia has not become bogged down in the confrontation with this non-state. Russia is actively behaving in the foreign policy arena.
It is indicative how the American president beautifully left the direct question on the Crimea. It turns out that the decision in the US and Europe has already been made. And again from the well-forgotten old. The de facto Crimea is Russian, and de jure will be an unrecognized territory. It happened before! Exactly so in the USSR were the Baltic republics.
So, what proposals will be made at the meeting in Helsinki? I think the main issue will be Iran. The US can not allow this state to further strengthen. Strong Iran will become a really serious problem for all participants of the Middle East game.
The United States, Turkey, Israel and even us, although to a lesser degree, are interested in this. Iran's appearance of atomic weapons will put an end not only to US domination in the region, but also to the ambitions of Israel and Turkey. Yes, and the situation in Syria will complicate.
In short, Trump will come out with a proposal to prevent the revival of Iran in the creation of nuclear weapons. This is possible only through mediation and guarantees from Russia. And then it is rather arbitrary.
The actions of the US President undermined the Iranians' faith in international commitments. And the East is a delicate matter. Now, the political elite of Iran understands perfectly well that conversations with conversations, and a truncheon behind the door should stand. The DPRK demonstrated this perfectly.
The second burning moment is the relations between Russia and China. The US openly challenged the PRC and, in many ways, unexpectedly for Washington, the Chinese accepted this challenge. Today, according to various estimates, the confrontation between the US and China is estimated at $ 70-100 billion losses for both countries.
At the same time, China will reorient its financial and trade flows to Russia and the EU. And the Americans, along with the war with China, are leading one more. Just with the EU. And again the European business looks at the Russian market with interest. There are goods, then they need to be realized somewhere ...
Discarding all the husks, we obtain the second Trump problem. Try to spoil relations between Beijing and Moscow.
What will Putin answer? Alas, both problems of Washington are not particularly interesting for us. Moreover, the American leader does not have faith not only in Moscow, but in any capital of the world. "My word is stronger than peas, I gave it myself, I took it back myself."
Yes, and clumsily prepared "rear". All these 30-30-30-30. Squadrons, battalions, ships ... The new command posts of NATO in Germany and the US ... The threat of NATO joining Georgia ... Yes, and "directly tomorrow" ...
Should we be scared? No, we will laugh. And we will answer. I wonder where these battalions will be located? Where will flocks of fighters and attack planes? And where are those airfields on which all this "will sit down"?
But the fact that Trump's peace-loving rhetoric is supported by an increase in military spending, we see. And we see a change in the concept of the use of nuclear weapons.
In general, speaking of the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, one must follow the old Eastern wisdom. The dog barks, the wind blows, and the caravan goes!
Trump really considers himself a world leader, even a genius. And in this capacity, again according to his own statement at the press conference, he tries to talk with the leaders of other countries. From the practice of his presidency it is perfectly clear that all ambitions quickly pass after the first click on the nose. Kim Jong-un showed this to the whole world.
In general, we are waiting for interesting events. On American television, his own president was called a seagull. Fell, shit, flew away. It seems to me, probably, the perception between us and the Americans is somewhat different, Trump reminds another bird.
Some readers have been attacked by broilers. A kind of fighter with strong spurs. Yes first kick ...