The population of America draws maps of future military operations, estimates the chances of "balkanization" of the country, stores ammunition and looks for safe places where it will be possible to survive the "second civilian". Until recently, the topic of its possible start was under an unofficial ban, now the leading media writes about it. What exactly are they afraid of - and why they began to fear it only now?
According to a poll conducted in May by the research organization Rasmussen Reports, 31% of Americans consider it possible to launch a civil war in the United States within the next five years. In March, a similar survey was conducted among historians and other experts. One third of them expect the war to begin in the near future.
Surprise here is not only the figures - quite high for such a seemingly prosperous country, like the US. It's surprising that for the first time in many years the theme of an armed internal conflict penetrated the mass media - before that it was an absolute taboo. Modeling possible confrontations within American society was the lot of people who were called "conspiracy theorists", "paleoconservatives", "survivors", "extremists" and the like, emphasizing their inadequacy.
The fact is that the Civil War 1861-1865 years became a constituent event of American history. The horror before its possible repetition was determined in the US policy by almost all. Including those things that from the side seem ridiculous. For example, absurd political correctness is a reaction to the stormy 1960, when the country was on the verge of a real racial war. And perverted leftist ideas are an antidote to the ideas of real socialism, which can provoke a class war in the country.
"The Civil War is the giant sleeping dragon of American history, at any moment ready to wake up and burn us to the ground," writes one of the leading American historians David Blythe.
At the beginning of the twentieth century, the intellectual elite of the United States believed that the coming civil confrontation would be a class one. In his prophetic novel The Iron Heel of the Oligarchy, Jack London already in 1908 predicted corporate totalitarianism in the US, a war with Germany and a popular uprising against the oligarchy.
This trend persisted throughout the Great Depression. The heroes of the innovative novels Dos Passos participated in the labor movement and prepared the socialist revolution. John Reed enthusiastically described the October revolution in Russia in "Ten Days That Shook the World". And Epton Sinclair in 1935 depicted the picture of the armed uprising of Americans against the fascist regime of Washington in his novel with the ironic title "It's impossible for us".
In the 1960-s the imagination of the masses was dominated by racial warfare. The thousands-strong protest actions of black Americans, the fight against segregation and the terrorist activities of the "Black Panthers" seemed to put the country in front of a real threat of a black and white confrontation.
"Reaganomics" with its cheap loans and an extensive system of social benefits was designed, among other things, to improve the position of the colored lower classes and prevent a racial war. Large-scale riots 1994 year in Los Angeles have proved that the hatred of a black minority against the white majority has not gone away. But by that time any discussions on a possible civil war - racial or class - had already been rolled over. The liberal mass media virtually blocked any talk about the "sleeping dragon".
Nevertheless, the deep fear of the second civilian has not gone away - it was just pushed to the side of the information mainstream. Every year new anti-utopias came out on this topic, forming a whole genre. There were also quite serious studies. For example, in 1997, the military analyst Thomas Chittam, who served in Vietnam, Rhodesia and Yugoslavia, tried to imagine how America could split under the impact of the economic crisis.
In his book The Second Civilian: The Coming Collapse of America, Chittam actually projected the Yugoslav conflict onto the map of the United States and the zone of compact residence of colored minorities. From his model it followed that in the case of racial war, black Americans would seize the entire southeast of the USA and arrange a capital in New Orleans. The Mexicans will implement their reconquista, take control of California and the entire south-west and build socialism there. And the white population will be pushed to the north and into the center of the country, where it will fight with black enclaves.
In 1997, no one paid attention to this research, there was not a single review in the press. Assuming the very possibility of a new civil war in America, the author automatically deleted himself from the "handshake" writers' community. The very idea that Negroes will fight against white and Mexicans, looked outrageously politically incorrect. However, today on the page of Chittam in the "Amazon" readers are surprised by the accuracy of his predictions: "A terrible book, and we will soon see how it will become a reality."
The theme of the second civil war was legalized in the press only after the election of Donald Trump - the Democrats were so disappointed with the outcome of the elections that they violated their own taboos. The first biting metaphor was launched by the liberal public's mouthpiece - the New Yorker magazine. After the clashes in Charlottesville and the scandals with the demolition of monuments to the Confederates, the leftist press stated that the treacherous "alto-right" were plotting civilian slaughter. They, they say, are armed and very dangerous, they should be immediately disarmed and lustrated.
The right-wingers objected that the right to arms was sacred, and the war was provoked just by the anti-fascist and leftist anarchist militant groups that traveled throughout America in order to score and intimidate the pro-Tramp majority.
But the "second civilian" did not last long as a mere metaphor. The Americans began actively discussing its real possibility - first at forums and radio shows, and then in the media. Invited military analysts, considered the risk of the Balkanization of America, drew maps of the red and blue states, quite seriously figured out who would be better provided with food and ammunition during the coming war - the central states that are beyond Trump or the coasts voted for Hillary Clinton.
A Canadian journalist of Egyptian origin Omar El Akkad wrote the novel "The Second Civil War in America", which instantly entered the New York Times best-seller list and received excellent reviews. El Akkad was a military correspondent, covered the "Arab spring" and the confrontation in Syria. In his book, he tried to imagine how the technology of color revolutions, so successfully used by the US around the world, can work on the territory of the States themselves. In his opinion, there are no special obstacles to this.
In general, the controversies in today's America are not about whether there will be a civil war, but only about what it will be like. The left insists that the watershed will be purely political: the red states, voting for Trump, will turn against the blue - the stronghold of the clinton clan.
Conservatives expect a more significant split. Economic inequality in the country is growing, the middle class is rapidly getting poorer, the wealth of the rich is growing exponentially. Almost a hundred years ago, Theodore Dreiser, one of the most critical critics of social injustice in the United States, rapped out: "Socialism has never taken root in America, because the poor man here considers himself not an exploited proletarian, but a millionaire temporarily in a cramped position." It seems that now this maximum ceases to work.
Economic problems have also aggravated racial conflicts. The fury of the black population has clearly shown itself in the riots in Ferguson, the murders of white policemen and the demolition of monuments to the heroes of the American South. For unemployed color youth armed confrontation may be the only chance of earning. As Chittam writes,
refusing to invest in young Americans, "the government - ironically - forms the very army that cuts his throats."
An important factor in the civil confrontation promises to become criminal gangs formed on ethnic grounds. In 1994, they looted during riots in Los Angeles. In 2005, almost all of New Orleans, destroyed by the hurricane Katrina, was taken under control. In the event of a real war, they will control entire regions of the country.
Historian David Blythe notes the striking similarity of the situation in today's US with the situation in the country on the eve of the first civilian. The same constantly flaring up riots and unrest. The same attacks on the police and public authorities. A very similar migrant crisis (in the 1850-e country was filled by refugees from the starving Ireland) and inexplicable brutal murders (in recent years, the States have been beating their own records on the number of mass shootings).
Finally, the era brings together an atmosphere of intolerance, radicalism, paranoid search for enemies. In March, writer and political scientist Noni Darwish published an extremely profound article on the Gatestone Institute website, drawing parallels between the hysterical nihilism of the American left and the moral terror of Sharia fanatics. Darvish immigrated to the US from Egypt, so he understands the topic well. She notes that both Muslim and leftist radicals in every way try to shame, humiliate, boycott any "heretic". In fear of this persecution people are ready to agree with them in everything and repent for any sin attributed to them.
This heightened atmosphere of universal hatred has accompanied Americans since the founding fathers. In this atmosphere, trials took place over witches in the 17th century and the processes of Senator McCarthy's time. In the novel "Scarlet Letter" Nathaniel Hawthorne perfectly described the mechanism of such public persecution. Subsequently, this topic was picked up by Stephen King - the inhabitants of the little towns they invented are ready to literally tear each other apart.
The catalyst for this universal hatred - like that of Islamist fanatics - is often the fear of sexuality. So the advanced feminists, who organized the campaign against harrament, also contributed to the creation of an atmosphere of intolerance that precedes the civil war.
Civil war 1861-1865 years carried away, according to various estimates, from 600 to 700 thousand lives. This is more than 2% of the then population of America. If you project these calculations to date, during the second civilian, at least six million Americans will die.