The theme of the day is the death of Russian journalists who "made a film about the Wagner group" in the CAR.
Instead of answers, as we have become accustomed to, they ask solid questions: what did they do in the CAR, what did the "Wagner group" do (which they do not) and what kind of film they shot?
Well, it's time to raise the actual agenda for the black continent.
While an increasing number of political and religious ulcers are combing in the Middle East, the infection of "jihadism" is carefully planted on the vast territory of Africa.
It seems that we are facing a new (more precisely, "new") battlefield with so-called international terrorism.
Beginning with 2009, each year responsible persons from several countries at the very epicenter of events report a complete victory over armed bandits and each time it proves premature.
Ruthless statistics are as follows: with 2010 for 2017, the number of civilian casualties from terrorists in Africa was 10000. Growth on 300% from the beginning of the period. Among the affected already 12 territories.
Small gangs can not be counted, but the most notable are three: Al-Shabab in Somalia, Jama-a-Nusra Al-Islam Val-Muslimin in Mali and, of course, Boko Haram.
The largest and most successful group, Boko Haram, is operating in Nigeria. By the way, the most economically developed and densely populated country of the continent.
If for some reason it can not hold back the terrorists, then Nigeria will be followed by all neighboring countries, currently in its shadow.
How are things going now?
I will begin with an abstract comment on the terrorist form of modern times.
In 2015, the "nihilists" released tributes and renamed themselves "Knowledge-Sin" to the Islamic State of the West African Province (ISWAP).
And in 2016, the year began to multiply by budding and open franchises across the continent.
While regional representations are still very small, their influence will only grow.
True, the Islamic state is not talking ... like everything else.
This is the most terrible fact of the potentially possible: they have no content.
"Boko Haram" already by self-designation - denial of negation. Ideological scraps = Pol Pot - government. Those. oxymoron.
Then why all?
They do not build any caliphate, they do not carry any idea, and even the justification of their actions in public, performed by the main skeet, looks not so hot as: "Allah turned to me and ordered the kidnapping of children, I obeyed and fulfilled."
If "Allah" is replaced by "nature" or "hallucination," then the meaning will not change, because the guys are clearly not acting according to the Koran. Yes, and read it, in general, haraam. This is also a relic of some kind of education.
When there is something to catch on the eye - it's already good.
For example, to EGIL in one of the parallel universes the theological dispute was applicable. Imams were really sent to them to talk for life. The conversations did not end with anything, but the interface of communication was opened. It was possible to pull the time or save a certain number of hostages.
When a person believes in something or at least translates this faith as their marketing strategy, in theory they can be manipulated.
Boko Haram or ISWAP does not have such a drawback.
As it is easy to see, we here return to the origins. "Africans" (conditionally, because it is known about them much less than about YGIL) represent a complete mold of our beloved German society of patients at another stage of development.
They have nothing sacred, and talk with them about nothing: from April 2011 to 2017 ISWAP used as live bombs 434 women and 134 children.
The main profitable business, in addition to situational racketeering: the slave trade.
"How can I not love them after that, eh?"
Therefore, meaningful communication even at the level of the Morzian is blocked by three ditches of barbed wire.
But they should have some kind of goal.
Crazy people do not behave this way.
One of the most memorable episodes from the life of ISWAP of late: a detachment of 200 fighters made a march-throw at 350 kilometers, kidnapped 110 schoolgirls in Dapchi and organizedly moved back into the jungle.
They went unnoticed 5 checkpoints and successfully avoided a clash with the regular army of Nigeria and its anti-terrorist allies that followed them on their heels.
They do not have any transport, the phones catch only satellite ones in these places, and they catch them including using drones, aerial photography and a huge number of people.
Just right to shoot "Rambo-7" or what is it on the account?
Those. in the staff there are regular military men, and with a high probability not from Africa or the Middle East, and there are informers in state bodies at a decent level.
Such, you see, is "anarchism".
Next time, let's talk a little about the disposition that has developed in the country in connection with such a threat.
How do they cope with the whole influx of international terrorism on the ground?
The question is not idle, for, as already noted, this is an exemplary African state model. If we spill cream here, then what to do with milk? :-)
It is also necessary to keep in mind the dependence of the entire top of the Nigerian socium from the UK to an even greater degree than it does in India and Pakistan. The mores are quite simple and there are no tangles around the postcolonial fronts: 3% of the richest Nigerians are trivial island citizens.
On the other hand, management there at critical points in history should be at the level of direct instructions, with manuals and instructors.
Well, what do we see on the surface of the "foam of days"?
For the expired since the first shares of 10 years, the fighters of "Boko Haram" -ISWAP have grown on the order and ideologically and, most importantly, technically.
About ideology, I marked the general brushstrokes last time, but about the technique I'll say a couple of things.
Africans are the background for the paramilitary operations of real terrorists. Those rare witnesses of their attacks transmit from the fields a real picture:
- homemade bombs, collected from plastic bottles and scrap metal from 2009-2010. replaced by an army of explosives of European type with Middle Eastern markings;
- the shares of chaotic performances turned into thoughtful military operations with the greatest possible number of civilian casualties. Explosions occur by the clock, there are no witnesses even in the most crowded places;
- Nigerians, as such, even in the crowd - a minimum. Threshold value for the legitimacy of actions on the territory of the country. The roles of the second plan for the Libyans and Malians, i.e. known nonconformists. But, who plays the first violin, as in the case with the IS, is a tremendous issue. The form of clothing provides not only a balaclava and sunglasses, but also black gloves (it occurs in the tropical marshes of the delta of the Shari River, where, by running a la naturelle, one can easily lose consciousness from the stuffiness);
- it is believed that all the firearms they have from captured IS military depots. The statement is convenient, but controversial. According to European military instructors hired on the occasion of the country's government, anarchists simply do not have the physical ability to carry such a quantity of cargoes through existing communication channels. Of course, if you do it with the forces of illegal groups :-)
Little is known about the actions of the Nigerian army against terrorists. Flashed information that in patrolling the area of their potential deployment, half of all available forces are used - about 70000 people.
There are victims, but talking about them is taboo. Someone writes about 300 killed and 1500 wounded for the last year. I met a figure near 1000. Unclear.
The forest on the border of Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon, where it is believed to have found the sanctuary of ISWAP, becomes an African "Chechnya": it is difficult to conduct military operations there, it is impossible to clear the terrain completely in the foreseeable time, and to withdraw means to expose a significant territory.
Decided to do interestingly:
- All those who could be evacuated from the border areas, this is, by the way, at least 2.4 million people. The practice of scorched land is practiced for immigrants;
- those who could not be evacuated from the second line of defense in 300-400 km. from the epicenter of action - armed as a militia. A friable mass of the people's militia has turned out.
In either case, displaced or armed citizens can, according to the command of the army of Nigeria, feed the ISWAP ranks. After all, in the territory of refugee camps and in "Chechnya" civilization is no longer there - no one studies, heals and does not work in principle.
The UN mission in Africa issued statistics (controversial, but interesting): 71% of all those who joined the terrorists commit this in response to the actions of the authorities.
There is a civilizational breakdown - the infrastructure is not capable of digesting so many versatile activities.
As a result, "assistants" came to the region: the united counterterrorism forces under the command of France, the British instructors to help the local army, the combined security forces of the five neighboring countries and, for dessert, the US special forces + the inevitable battle drones.
There is no visible effect of their presence, and it was even a partial reduction of troops in the future 2-x years.
But, as we can see, their number only grows in response to the retreat of the Government of Nigeria.
It turns out that by their presence they legitimize an already shaky situation.
In any case, while only local people were suffering, nobody noticed this in principle. As soon as the first corpses from the first world appeared, active movement started according to the well-known scenario.
It came to the painful frontier in October 2017: the four American servicemen were ambushed by ISWAP in Niger. The biggest US loss in Africa for many years.
Another fighter died in June, and now everyone started talking about it.
The situation quickly gets to the problems of the Middle East scale of the last 4 years.
The question is not when it will end, but in when the Bickfords blow the preparatory work before the explosion of Nigeria and the neighboring states.