New American sanctions, announced in Washington, caused in Russia a greater degree of perplexity than irritation. During the four years of the geopolitical conflict with the United States, we are no longer only accustomed to American pressure, but we are also building our global policy proceeding from the probability of maximum aggravation of relations with the failed hegemon. But why now, and even under a completely contrived pretext?
The US State Department announced the forthcoming introduction of new sanctions against Russia - they will be published on 22 August and are caused by the Skrypals case. In addition to confirming a number of existing restrictions on the export of arms to Russia, a ban on the supply of electronic devices and dual-use components to Russia will be introduced. And more importantly, Russia has been given an ultimatum, in case of non-fulfillment of which, in the next three months, new sanctions will follow.
Washington demands providing convincing guarantees of Russia's non-use of chemical and biological weapons in the future - in particular, "allowing field inspections by UN observers or other internationally recognized independent observers", which will have to be convinced of the sincerity of the Russian authorities. If this does not happen, new sanctions will be introduced, so-called. second level.
They consist of six points - from the reduction of the level of diplomatic relations to the almost complete cessation of mutual trade (with the exception of food), as well as the ban on flights of state-controlled Russian airlines (i.e., Aeroflot) to the United States. Select specific three points out of six will have to be the President of the United States.
Reports of new US sanctions have had a negative impact on both the ruble exchange rate and the shares of a number of Russian companies, primarily Aeroflot. It is clear that Russia will not agree to an ultimatum - that is, three months after 22 August we can expect second-level sanctions? That's just the point, that almost certainly is not.
Because the current sanctions have a direct relationship not to external, but to domestic American policy.
Trump beats these sanctions not for Putin - but for the hostile part of the American elite. Yes, Russia, too, is suffering - but it is not the goal. Russia has become a bargaining chip in the domestic political struggle in the US, and this should be treated as a given. We can not - in spite of insane American myths - influence the domestic political situation in the United States. Therefore, they must build their foreign policy and foreign economic activity on the basis of American reality.
And it is such that Trump wants to win the November elections - 6 November, Americans will choose the whole House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and a third of the Governor's Corps. Now everywhere Republicans prevail, but Trump does not help much. He was elected contrary to the wishes of the party (and non-party) establishment, and many of his key projects slip through the Congress precisely because of the resistance of formal party members. And opponents of Trump (including the "Washington swamp," which really controls the US bunch of big business lobbyists, politicians and bureaucrats) want not only to block the 45 president, but also to achieve his removal from office - through impeachment procedure. The fact that there are no grounds for it - even the far-fetched story of Russia's interference in the election of 2016 year does not give any evidence against Trump - nothing changes. There would be a man - and there will be an article.
In particular, Trump dreams of catching perjury or abuse of authority, but to begin the impeachment procedure you need the consent of Congress. But no matter how the part of the Republican congressmen were opposed to Trump, they will not be able to formally remove their president without even a relatively plausible reason, which means that the democrats need to get control over at least the lower house. The calculation is as follows: The House of Representatives launches an impeachment procedure, and during its passage the most unstable Republicans in the Senate will falter and vote for the president's dismissal.
We are not even talking about voting for resignation, but simply about the theoretical possibility of obtaining the necessary number of votes for impeachment. Recall that Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 year before the vote in Congress - when it became clear that his opponents will gain the required number of votes.
That is, the stakes in these elections are very high - in fact, they already hold a referendum on trust in Trumpu. Each candidate at all levels must decide - he is for or against Trump. It is clear that, first of all, this applies to Republicans - in fact, democrats are already connected by informal party discipline. At the same time, the tasks of Trump himself in these elections are more difficult: he does not just need to maintain control of the Republicans behind the Congress, but also to hold as many of his people as possible. That is, those who will be either his ideological and political supporter (that is, to share, for example, plans to build a wall on the border with Mexico), or at least not be his outspoken opponent. Chances for this he has - and not bad.
Trump's victory was the result of dissatisfaction with the "Washington swamp" and the systemic American elites - so despite the frenzied obstruction that Trump has been subjected to in the press all this time, many voters want to see "people like Trump" in Congress. This Tuesday at the by-elections to Congress in Ohio, the candidate, supported by Trump, won - although from these elections they also tried to arrange an all-American show "stop Trump."
But even if Trump manages to simply help the Republicans keep the majority in both chambers, this will be his big victory, because, as the Americans are constantly reminded, the party almost always won the presidential election lost its seats and seats in Congress two years later (except for only four 80 years). If Trump leads the party to victory - that is, to retain the majority in both chambers - it will hit hard on his opponents in the never-become Republican party. The chances for such an outcome are - at least the Republicans will retain control over the Senate, and in the House of Representatives may well lose some of the seats, but retain the majority.
So Trump understands what he's fighting for. But what does Russia have to do with it?
Given that it was from our country that its enemies made the main weapon in the fight against it. Americans are told that Russia intervened in their election - and even Trump was forced to admit this "fact" in order to ease pressure on himself. The scale of the plot against Trump is unprecedented even for the United States, so when the details of the collusion of the "deep state" come to the surface, it will lead to a crisis in the American political system that surpasses the middle of the 70's with Watergate - but so far the president does not manage to break the battle for power in their favor. Therefore, he is going to intercept the topic - blaming his opponents for what they reproach him for (for example, says that this Clinton was connected with the Russians, because she was looking for them against the dirt on him), and posing as the main fighter against Russia .
I will be tougher with Russia than there was Obama or there would be Clinton, says Trump - and there is no schizophrenia.
Intercepting the "Russian theme", Trump deprives the Democrats of their main antitramp trump card - look, he says to voters, I promise Russia more serious problems, so how can you believe those who call me "a puppet of Putin"?
Therefore, Trump and hurried with new sanctions, the most formidable in which is the second package. But when it can not even be introduced, but considered? In 90 days after the introduction of sanctions of the first level - that is, at the end of November. By this time, not only elections will be held in the United States, but the second meeting of Trump and Putin will take place this year (in November they will be crossed at international summits even twice - first in Singapore at the East Asia Summit and then in Argentina at the G20 meeting) .
Neither to reduce the level of diplomatic relations nor to prohibit the flights of Aeroflot Trump, of course, then there will not be - well, with an explanation of the reasons why this should not be done, although Russia did not fulfill the ultimatum on the Skripal case, Washington will think of something. The simplest thing is "we need interaction with Russia in the Middle East (or else where), and therefore we postpone their introduction." Well - "Russia did not interfere in the elections of 2018 year, that is, our tough measures acted."
So do not prevent Trumpu from winning the November elections - so that you can at least talk to him in a relaxed atmosphere. And the general policy of Russia does not change from sanctions: we must become self-sufficient and continue to work on the formation of a new, post-American world order.