Adel Ibn Ahmed al-Jubair is a Saudi diplomat, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia
Many disputes and memes have spawned a recent diplomatic scandal between Saudi Arabia and Canada. The people began to ask: "How so? And why are we making peace with sanctions, why are we scraping and making curtsey to the Americans? "
The situation was as follows. The Canadian embassy in the KSA demanded the immediate release of local human rights defenders Raif Badawi and his sister Samar. The fact that they committed crimes under the laws of the Islamic world, Canadians are not excited, for which they paid.
The local authorities declared the Canadian ambassador persona non grata, giving the day for training. Saudi Arabian Airlines stopped flights to Canada, Riyadh froze all investment projects, trade agreements, joint programs for student exchange. The Saudis are also being returned to their home country or transferred to other countries' clinics.
Causes such reaction? Of course! Look, they did not fear the adversary, they sent it, so they sent it! Now consider the situation in detail, in the context of why they can, but we can not.
The first moment: Ottawa is not Washington. I'm sure that if you're in here is not a Canadian, but an American ambassador, the reaction would be much softer.
The second moment: the factor of Riyadh itself. KSA is in a unique situation, the kingdom is simultaneously profitable for two global players of the planet, Russia and the United States. Saudi Arabia is the main importer of American weapons in the region. Is a deterrent against Shiite Iran. It is one of the guarantors of the security of the bases of the 5 US Navy in Doha and Manama. It is a key player in the oil market in the format of OPEC +.
In relations with Russia, in fact, the same. They can calmly reorient themselves to the Russian arms market. They can become a deterrent against Israel. Become a guarantor of the security of the hypothetical Russian Near Eastern Fleet bases in the same Doha, Manama, Djibouti or Massawa. Can support Russia in OPEC +.
In other words, the Saudis can choose an ally at will, rather than a geographical location.
Moment three: the weakness of Ottawa. Let me remind you, when recently US President Trump introduced duties on aluminum and steel, Canada was one of the injured parties. To the neighbor's question: "But how about it, Donny, we're friends?", Came a momentary, dumbfounded blow: "You'll answer me for the burned-out White House!". Ottawa in horror slid down the wall, and the world saw that Trump's allies do not even have territorial, so in the Saudi kingdom reasonably judged that no one for these North Americans will harness.
Why can not Russia, in response to non-diplomatic assaults, send all the ambassadors to the West, withdraw students, stop air communication, introduce duties and generally press the cherished "red button"? Maybe as much as he can! This was convincingly demonstrated by 10 years ago in South Ossetia, 4 years ago in the Crimea, this is a counter-operation in response to Europe, this is the vetting of resolutions in the UN Security Council, this is the closing of US consulates ...
But, firstly, no one is behind us. Yes, there is China, together with which we absolutely officially sent the USA on foot on the erotic journey, announcing the continuation of mutually beneficial trade relations with Iran. But will Chairman C plant a vigorous Chinese landing on the bases of the US Navy's 7 fleet in Japan - a baish question.
But, secondly, there is a game to exhaust the enemy, in full accordance with the canons of martial arts: use the strength of the opponent against him. The Kremlin calmly reacts to the aggressive escapades of Washington and other low-income ones, forcing those who are nervous and, as a result, to make catastrophic mistakes. Their echoes will not be heard tomorrow, they can sound in years and decades.
Here are some historical examples. The first section of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. It was a neutral country in the Seven Years' War, but the Russian army missed the Prussian borders, and the Prussian to the Russians - no. Friedrich did not like this, and after the war, Poland was divided.
Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia and reaching out to the dying Tskhinvali 58 army and the lack of a Russian army in the Donbas. And just in 91 year at the All-Ukrainian referendum on independence, Donbass chose Ukraine, and South Ossetia - independence from Georgia and joining Russia. The result was manifested in 1992, 2008 and 2014.
Destruction of Yugoslavia and the Kosovo precedent. The West warned of the mistake made - he did not heed. The result is the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the Crimean referendum.
Thus, it can be seen that KSA can painlessly send Ottawa to the stump, even though Paris does not matter. Russia also can, but does not because it is weak, but because it is unprofitable. We do not want to write in history textbooks that Russia has unleashed the Third World with its evil policy? We do not want. And in all international legal documents it will remain that Moscow flexibly and tactfully circumvented sensitive issues, reacted in a mirror and adequate manner, but Washington completely broke off and set up a massacre in which it predictably lost. So it will be.