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Six evidence of the beginning of the split of the West

Six evidence of the beginning of the split of the West

4 2018 June LJ cover – Шесть свидетельств начала раскола Запада
Tags: West, Europe, USA, International relations, Analytics, Politics, Economics

The beginning of the trade war between the United States and Europe coincided with the formation of the first eurosceptic government in the history of the European Union. Europe really was on the verge of making crucial decisions - just as her wicked genius Soros had warned the other day. But not only Europe - together with the summer of 2018, we are entering a new period of world history.

Contradictions within the West have been accumulating for a long time - and since the election of Trump as President of the United States, they have moved to the public sphere. The general crisis of the world order, built by the West, only intensified internal disassembly between the Old and New World. And in recent weeks, one has clung to another - and there is a very clear combination that can not be played back or simply settled.

When George Soros recently in his speech at the meeting of the European Council on Foreign Relations stated that the European Union "faced an existential crisis", this was seen by many as alarming for the 87-year-old billionaire. But the atlantist Soros, although struggling with Trump and Eurosceptics, nevertheless rightly pointed out one of the key recent events:

"In recent weeks, President Trump has shocked not only Europe, but the whole world with his actions. He unilaterally withdrew from the treaty with Iran on nuclear weapons and thereby virtually destroyed the trans-Atlantic alliance. This event will create additional pressure of unpredictable force on Europe, which is already in a critical condition. Now we can say without any exaggeration that Europe is facing a threat to its own existence. This is a harsh reality. "

The destruction of the transatlantic alliance? Whether Soros-NATO is in a hurry, the military-political dependence of Europe on the Anglo-Saxons (not only from the United States, but also from Britain as the intellectual and personnel center of the Anglo-Saxon world) has not disappeared. But Soros does not exaggerate -

there are a number of unsolvable problems that together bring the internal tension between the US and Europe to a critical one.

Firstly, this is the distrust of the European pro-Atlantic elite towards Trump as an exponent of anti-Atlantic interests - that is, they expect him not to strengthen the unity of the West, but to weaken it. And Trump periodically strikes at the "symbol of faith" of pro-American Europeans.

Secondly, the US withdrawal from the Iranian deal and the threat of sanctions against European companies that will operate in Iran.

Thirdly, the US duties on steel and aluminum - which are not strong but also hitting European suppliers - and the expected EU response, raised since 1 June, which, as a result of the chain of reciprocal reciprocal steps (including, for example, the increase of import duties on European cars in the US, and they are sold for almost 40 billion euros per year) can lead to the beginning of a trade war between the two shores of the Atlantic.

Fourthly, the increased pressure of Americans on the "Nord Stream - 2", while Europe considers this issue for itself decided and not only does not intend to give in but is also preparing to resume the buried was "South Stream", this time in the form of "Turkish" or even "Bulgarian". Against this background, the desire of Europe to close the chapter of the war of sanctions with Russia, in which it is largely held by the pressure of the United States, is growing stronger. It is no accident that on June, 31, speaking in Brussels, the head of the pan-European government Jean-Claude Juncker said that he thinks "that we need to restore ties with Russia": "

"I do not really like the current state of our relations ... We will not forget about our differences and disagreements. However, this demonization of Russia should end. "

Fifth, the coming to power in Italy of a government composed of two frankly Euro-skeptical parties, both for the weakening of the role of Brussels, and for the restoration of full-fledged cooperation with Russia.

Sixth, the approach of Brexit. This autumn it is necessary to agree and sign all conditions for the UK's withdrawal from the EU - and if this does not work out, an internal political crisis will begin on the island, which, naturally, will affect the whole of Europe.

All individually, this might not seem so terrible. Accustomed to the anti-Atlanticist Trump, and his American elites so far restrained. Well, or Italy - think, the government of the "Five Stars" and "League", who needs this Italy, what does it influence? Even Brexit is dangerous, of course, but Berlin and Paris will lead the EU out of the crisis. And the trade war - well, the ridiculous amounts of steel and aluminum, less than a billion a year, what are we talking about?

However, all together gives a cumulative effect - not to mention the fact that concessions, for example, on Iran, from Europe in principle are impossible. It's not even a matter of tens of billions of euros - but that by letting you break yourself in this matter, the EU will lose even a limited geopolitical subjectivity. And in the context of the growing popularity of Eurosceptics and the withdrawal of Great Britain, this will lead to a complete discredit of both the current pan-European elites (Junker, Macron) and national elites (Merkel, Macron). What will have a disastrous impact on the results of the elections to the European Parliament next year - Eurosceptics, of course, will not win, but will significantly increase their influence.

Therefore, although the individual elements of the current crisis alone are not fatal for the unity of the West, their combination makes the situation extremely tense. Europe simply can not help defending its interests against American pressure - which makes the topic of the "split of the West" more urgent than ever. Yes, it will be only a deep crack - but that new world, about the offensive of which was spoken as in March 2014, after the Crimea, and 8 November 2016, after the victory of Trump, now, 1 June, there was another very important milestone its becoming.

Peter Akopov
VC
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