Europe has decided to defend its independence - it will not review the agreement with Iran and will not comply with US sanctions. Washington's break with the Iranian deal was the last straw that filled the European Union's cup of patience. There is really nowhere to retreat from the EU - further subordination to the Atlantic dictate will make the whole European project meaningless. Will May 2018 be the turning point, the time of the beginning of the split of the West?
The leaders of European countries and EU leaders gathered in Sofia today had to formally discuss the issues of relations with the Balkan candidate countries for joining the EU. But how can we talk about the expansion of the EU if it does not cope with its main function - the protection of the interests of Europeans? That is why it is unlikely that at an informal dinner in the Bulgarian capital it was about anything other than relations with the US - Europe is on the verge of not just a trade war, but a geopolitical conflict with its own ... But who?
The senior partner, ally, suzerain, competitor? In geopolitical terms, the United States for the Old World is unequivocally superior - within the framework of a single West and NATO, it is the American atlantists who are the elders. After World War II, the United States, through various forms of control, sent Germany and Italy, France and other countries of Western and then Eastern Europe. Their partner in the control of Europe was Britain - and whatever differences arise between the two shores of the Atlantic, Europe, even if it took the form of the European Union, as a whole remained a slave.
Yes, as the integration project in Europe gained momentum, continental Europeans had a growing desire to become more independent - but the Anglo-Saxons always kept the situation under control. The genuine independence of Germany and especially its rapprochement with Russia clearly contradicted the interests of the atlantists - and a few years ago, under the plausible pretext of the "Russian threat", Europe was inclined to anti-Russian sanctions. "Ukraine was already yours, and Putin did not let you take it under the EU wing" - about the same way bred greedy European politicians at the beginning of the geopolitical conflict with Russia.
However, most European political class understood that the EU benefits from close ties with Russia - and although it agreed to extend sanctions, it was always looking for an opportunity to end confrontation with Moscow. Recently, in order to maintain the Russophobic atmosphere, the Anglo-Saxons even had to arrange a provocation with the Fiddles - in order to maintain the tension between Russia and Europe on this side.
It seemed that in the coming months everything will go on in a dashed way - Europe will wait for what will be the end of the power struggle in the United States, and try to adjust both for Trump and the opposing Atlantic elite. However, Washington's recent actions raised the issue by the brink.
Now Europe simply can not yield to American demands - it risks completely losing face.
The break in the Iranian deal was necessary for Trump based largely on domestic political considerations - but he was going to press first of all on Europeans. According to his plans, they should eventually agree to join the US and, together with them, force Iran to conclude a new agreement - which Trump could "sell" in America as his own serious victory. The position of Russia and China, which in any case would be against the revision of the deal, was not taken into account by Trump, apparently inspired by the alleged success of his Korean offensive (in which Beijing and Pyongyang created the illusion of a breakthrough), the US president decided that all will work. To make the EU more compliant, he was threatened with sanctions. But the Old World rested in earnest - and decided to preserve both the deal and the relationship with Iran.
And now the consequences of the US pressure on Europe over the Iranian deal will go far beyond an ordinary misunderstanding between the allies.
"Looking at the latest decisions of Donald Trump, someone can say: with such friends enemies are not needed. But, frankly, the EU should be grateful. Thanks to him, that we got rid of all illusions,- so said on Wednesday the chairman of the European Council, that is, the president of a united Europe, Donald Tusk.
And the head of the government of a united Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker, said last week that the European Union should assume the role of a global leader - because Trump's decision to break the Iranian deal means that the US "no longer intends to cooperate" with other states and turn away from friendly relations "with such fury," which can not but surprise. And the European countries should not simply save the agreement with Iran - "we must replace the United States, which as an international entity has lost its force, and therefore its influence in the long term."
That is, it turns out that Europe is not only ready to take responsibility for its own future - as already Angela Merkel even speaks about this year - including taking care of her own security. But we are ready to replace the US as a world leader - we did not misinterpret?
No - because they started talking about this in Europe immediately after the victory of Donald Trump in the election more than a year and a half ago. Even then it was clear that Trump wants America to take care of itself, and not the construction of a single Atlantic world - and for the sake of filling the American purse it will shake all partners, enemies and allies. Europeans, accustomed to the fact that their sovereignty is limited in matters of war and peace, suddenly heard that they must pay for American protection - because America does not need Trump.
The United West has cracked - and although the Atlantic elite on both sides of the ocean hopes that Trump is just a bad dream, and in 2020 everything will return to its own places, in reality there is no chance of regaining unity to the West. America will rewrite its foreign policy for the purpose of "making itself great again," regardless of whether Trump will have power or not - because the hegemon has overstrained and nationally oriented American elites are intercepting power from players in a global policeman.
What remains atlantists? You can either put up with it - or try to shift the center of gravity of the Western world to Europe. As a temporary (until the return of power in Washington) or as a permanent measure. But is there Europe's personnel capable of carrying the leader's watch? Tried Merkel - does not pull, and it is dangerous, all the same Germany, suddenly come into taste, and the next chancellor will no longer be tame? Tusk and Junker? Macron? It's not that. Therefore, there is no solution - and on this background, relations within the West are turning into what Trump wanted: into the struggle between national states.
And this evokes the protest of the European Union - even if it is an unfinished, but a single state - and individual European states. Trump sees the EU as a competitor to America - and wants to weaken him. In the Iranian episode, it is important not even that it is about Iran - to which Germany and France have big economic plans - but that Europe is simply ordered to forget about protecting its interests. And under absolutely false pretext - unlike the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions, there are no formal, even formal reasons for breaking the Iranian deal.
Agree with this, Europe can not - it would be a suicide for the EU as such. As the Le Figaro columnist Reno Girard writes,"With the onset of such an unheard-of American dictate, will the Europeans be able to regain their independence? This test is the truth for the political aspect of the EU. If the European Union submits to Trump, he will lose all reason for his existence. "
And it is not only those who have been reminding Europe that in recent years reminded Europe that obeying American pressure and preserving anti-Russian sanctions, this is not the only thing that is hurting itself - no, now the hardliners on Moscow, the consistent atlantists, are repeating the same thing.
"This is nothing more than a massive blow to the sovereignty of European countries and the European Union. They have lost the right to make decisions about their policies and their actions in connection with the rude dictates of another - and sort of as friendly - of the country. This is completely unacceptable from the European point of view and contradicts the sermons of Trump himself. This condemns Europe to the observance and implementation of a policy with which it deeply disagrees "- as the former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt writes in The Washington Post.
Europe can not submit to US pressure - but rejecting it, it can not in reality either go on a break with them, nor even pretend to world leadership. She just wants more independence - which is very much in the current situation. For this, Europe needs to form a balance of forces and interests that is more advantageous to it - and, in the search for its elements, it naturally looks to Moscow.
It coincided that over the next week, the heads of half of the strongest countries of the world - Germany, France, Japan and India - will visit Russia. Initially, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron were going to talk with Vladimir Putin on a variety of topics - about Syria, trade, Ukraine ... But now everything will revolve around the word "Iran" - which does not mean a country or a deal. And the choice that Europe is making before our eyes.