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Will the EU be able to withstand the pressure of the United States

Will the EU be able to withstand the pressure of the United States

17 May 2018 LJ cover – Сможет ли Евросоюз устоять под напором США
Tags: EU, Politics, Europe, USA, Iran, Analytics, International Relations, Trump

Europe has decided to defend its independence - it will not review the agreement with Iran and will not comply with US sanctions. Washington's break with the Iranian deal was the last straw that filled the European Union's cup of patience. There is really nowhere to retreat from the EU - further subordination to the Atlantic dictate will make the whole European project meaningless. Will May 2018 be the turning point, the time of the beginning of the split of the West?

Собравшиеся сегодня в Софии лидеры европейских стран и руководители Евросоюза формально должны были обсуждать вопросы отношений с балканскими странами-кандидатами на вступление в ЕС. Но как можно говорить о расширении ЕС, если он не справляется со своей главной функцией – защите интересов европейцев? Именно поэтому вряд ли на неформальном ужине в болгарской столице речь шла о чем-то еще, кроме отношений с США – Европа стоит на пороге не просто торговой войны, а геополитического конфликта со своим... А вот кем?

The senior partner, ally, suzerain, competitor? In geopolitical terms, the United States for the Old World is unequivocally superior - within the framework of a single West and NATO, it is the American atlantists who are the elders. After World War II, the United States, through various forms of control, sent Germany and Italy, France and other countries of Western and then Eastern Europe. Their partner in the control of Europe was Britain - and whatever differences arise between the two shores of the Atlantic, Europe, even if it took the form of the European Union, as a whole remained a slave.

Да, по мере того как интеграционный проект в Европе набирал силу, у континентальных европейцев росло желание стать более самостоятельными – но англосаксы всегда держали ситуацию под контролем. Подлинная независимость Германии и тем более ее сближение с Россией однозначно противоречили интересам атлантистов – и несколько лет назад, под благовидным предлогом «русской угрозы» Европу склонили к антироссийским санкциям. «Украина была уже ваша, а Путин не дал вам забрать ее под крыло ЕС» - примерно так разводили жадных европейских политиков на начало геополитического конфликта с Россией.

However, most European political class understood that the EU benefits from close ties with Russia - and although it agreed to extend sanctions, it was always looking for an opportunity to end confrontation with Moscow. Recently, in order to maintain the Russophobic atmosphere, the Anglo-Saxons even had to arrange a provocation with the Fiddles - in order to maintain the tension between Russia and Europe on this side.

It seemed that in the coming months everything will go on in a dashed way - Europe will wait for what will be the end of the power struggle in the United States, and try to adjust both for Trump and the opposing Atlantic elite. However, Washington's recent actions raised the issue by the brink.

Now Europe simply can not yield to American demands - it risks completely losing face.

Разрыв иранской сделки был нужен Трампу исходя во многом из внутриполитических соображений – но давить при этом он собирался в первую очередь на европейцев. По его планам, они должны были в конечном итоге согласиться присоединится к США и вместе с ними принудить Иран заключить новое соглашение – которое Трамп смог бы «продать» в Америке как свою серьезную победу. Позиция России и Китая, которые в любом случае были бы против пересмотра сделки, особенно в расчет Трампом не принималась - видимо, вдохновленный мнимым успехом своего корейского наступления (в котором Пекин и Пхеньян создали для него иллюзию прорыва), президент США решил, что и тут все сработает. Чтобы сделать ЕС сговорчивей, ему пригрозили санкциями. Но Старый Свет уперся не на шутку – и решил сохранить и сделку, и отношения с Ираном.

And now the consequences of the US pressure on Europe over the Iranian deal will go far beyond an ordinary misunderstanding between the allies.

"Looking at the latest decisions of Donald Trump, someone can say: with such friends enemies are not needed. But, frankly, the EU should be grateful. Thanks to him, that we got rid of all illusions, - so said on Wednesday the chairman of the European Council, that is, the president of a united Europe, Donald Tusk.

And the head of the government of a united Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker, said last week that the European Union should assume the role of a global leader - because Trump's decision to break the Iranian deal means that the US "no longer intends to cooperate" with other states and turn away from friendly relations "with such fury," which can not but surprise. And the European countries should not simply save the agreement with Iran - "we must replace the United States, which as an international entity has lost its force, and therefore its influence in the long term."

That is, it turns out that Europe is not only ready to take responsibility for its own future - as already Angela Merkel even speaks about this year - including taking care of her own security. But we are ready to replace the US as a world leader - we did not misinterpret?

No - because they started talking about this in Europe immediately after the victory of Donald Trump in the election more than a year and a half ago. Even then it was clear that Trump wants America to take care of itself, and not the construction of a single Atlantic world - and for the sake of filling the American purse it will shake all partners, enemies and allies. Europeans, accustomed to the fact that their sovereignty is limited in matters of war and peace, suddenly heard that they must pay for American protection - because America does not need Trump.

The United West has cracked - and although the Atlantic elite on both sides of the ocean hopes that Trump is just a bad dream, and in 2020 everything will return to its own places, in reality there is no chance of regaining unity to the West. America will rewrite its foreign policy for the purpose of "making itself great again," regardless of whether Trump will have power or not - because the hegemon has overstrained and nationally oriented American elites are intercepting power from players in a global policeman.

What remains atlantists? You can either put up with it - or try to shift the center of gravity of the Western world to Europe. As a temporary (until the return of power in Washington) or as a permanent measure. But is there Europe's personnel capable of carrying the leader's watch? Tried Merkel - does not pull, and it is dangerous, all the same Germany, suddenly come into taste, and the next chancellor will no longer be tame? Tusk and Junker? Macron? It's not that. Therefore, there is no solution - and on this background, relations within the West are turning into what Trump wanted: into the struggle between national states.

И это вызывает протест и Евросоюза – как пусть и недоделанного, но единого государства – и отдельных европейских государств. Трамп видит в ЕС конкурента Америке – и хочет ослабить его. В иранском эпизоде важно даже не то, что речь идет про Иран – на который у Германии и Франции есть большие экономические планы – а то, что Европе просто приказывают забыть о защите своих интересов. Причем под абсолютно надуманным предлогом – в отличие от введения антироссийских санкций, для разрыва иранской сделки нет вообще никаких, даже формальных поводов.

Согласится с этим Европа не может – это стало бы самоубийством для Евросоюза как такового. Как пишет обозреватель Le Figaro Рено Жирар, "With the onset of such an unheard-of American dictate, will the Europeans be able to regain their independence? This test is the truth for the political aspect of the EU. If the European Union submits to Trump, he will lose all reason for his existence. "

And it is not only those who have been reminding Europe that in recent years reminded Europe that obeying American pressure and preserving anti-Russian sanctions, this is not the only thing that is hurting itself - no, now the hardliners on Moscow, the consistent atlantists, are repeating the same thing.

"This is nothing more than a massive blow to the sovereignty of European countries and the European Union. They have lost the right to make decisions about their policies and their actions in connection with the rude dictates of another - and sort of as friendly - of the country. This is completely unacceptable from the European point of view and contradicts the sermons of Trump himself. This condemns Europe to the observance and implementation of a policy with which it deeply disagrees " - as the former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt writes in The Washington Post.

Европа не может подчиниться давлению США – но отвергая его, она не может в реальности ни идти на разрыв с ними, ни тем более претендовать на мировое лидерство. Она просто хочет большей самостоятельности – что и так очень много в нынешней ситуации. Для этого Европе нужно сформировать более выгодный ей баланс сил и интересов – и в поиске его элементов она, естественно, обращает взоры в сторону Москвы.

It coincided that over the next week, the heads of half of the strongest countries of the world - Germany, France, Japan and India - will visit Russia. Initially, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron were going to talk with Vladimir Putin on a variety of topics - about Syria, trade, Ukraine ... But now everything will revolve around the word "Iran" - which does not mean a country or a deal. And the choice that Europe is making before our eyes.

Peter Akopov
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