In the fight against the most powerful terrorist organization in the world is approaching the symbolic date. May 4 thousand days pass from the date of application of the United States of the first strikes on Daishev ( "Islamic state", IG, LIH). should keep count of systemic efforts in opposing factions to August 8 2014 years, imagines himself from "caliphate." On that day, the US Air Force opened a new chapter in its Middle East military campaign, attacking the position of terrorists in Iraq. Six weeks later, 23 September, the US Air Force for the first time subjected to shocks and objects igilovtsev in Syria.
1000 days and nights - huge by the standards of the current term, "ot hardened" to limit geopolitical chronometer. Especially in the Middle East, where in the last three years there have been unprecedented shifts in the balance of power and interests of the two world powers.
US opened military campaign against Daishev. Albeit very vaguely, even reluctantly, let's face it, without much enthusiasm, but opened. Washington has also amassed a kind of "international coalition" against a common evil. But outside of this alliance remained counterterrorism forces, on which lay and continues to do so the main burden in the defeat Daishev in Syria. If August 2014-th became the starting point of the beginning of the war with the "Caliphate", then 30 September 2015, when in direct struggle including Russia, should count the time of the appearance in this war the most effective actor. The matter is absolutely not about who and how many struck the bomb and missile strikes against the IG in the Middle East. Moscow introduced into by important qualitative shift in the entire anti-terrorist campaign, giving it a kind of strategy that the international community did not wait by the previous US administration.
What worked for 1000 days continuing battle with Daishev? Much in the same time unacceptably low given EXPIRED impressive period of time. Reliable data on the part of the territorial and combat (human) losses "caliphate" is not so far. The fact of being a terrorist organization "number one" in a state of crisis, in the face of already occurred and approaching serious defeats on the Iraqi and Syrian fronts, is obvious. Meanwhile, the IG has not yet exhausted the potential of conducting offensive operations in certain areas, it preserves the ability organs "military control." The mere absence of mass cases of putting terrorists captured, even in such catastrophic for Daishev points warfare as western Mosul, says a lot.
Signs of systemic disorganization of senior and middle commanders of the IG, the demoralization in the ranks of warlords and "jihadist infantry" is not fixed. There were and are a lot of talk in the camp of the opponents of the "Caliphate" of the territories they lost in Iraq and Syria. Also points to an acute shortage of human resources Daishev, a significant reduction in the influx of fresh forces in the face of foreign fighters. However, again, all such statements are strictly evaluative. And, as you can see in the intelligence world and regional powers do not really have a clear idea about what he had lost, and that kept in combat readiness of the IG.
so far as there is a shortage in the understanding that terrorizing the entire Middle East organization for a long time has been fighting not for territory and resources. That is accumulated and periodically replenished resource base (military weapons and equipment, ammunition, fuel for armored vehicles, food, cash, etc.) Enables grouping to stay afloat. It's time to finally understand that Daishev captures the territory not to retain them at any cost.
Most estimates of the surface, on the verge of outright demagoguery can be observed by the US military on the part of the announcement of the territorial losses of the enemy.
In January 2016, the official representative of the US-led coalition command ColonelStiv Uorrensaid the loss of control over the terrorists about 40% of the territory they previously held in Iraq, and about 5% in Syria.
A year later, in the first month of 2017-evaluations American commanders in the region of the operation "Resoluteness» (Inherent Resolve) were significantly adjusted, especially on the part of Iraq. Now it claimed that Daishev lost control about on the fourth part previously occupied territories in the two Arab countries. The figures were announced by the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff US Armed Forces (JCS), not directly, but via "independent analytical structures", among whom were, for example, the British company IHS Markit. Obviously, such a convoluted course needed to "save face" and to sign publicly in their previous gross miscalculations. In addition, the White House came a new commander in chief, making the need to make the current results "unshakable determination" more realistic look.
Judging from the whole of January this year has remained without major changes. According to IHS Markit, during the past year jihadists left almost 18 thousand sq. Km, and the territory they controlled the area decreased from 78 thousand. Up to 60,4 thousand sq. M. km. In the 2016 23, the IG has lost% previously occupied territories, and the year before - 14%, noted in the report of the British analysts. "Daishev suffered unprecedented losses in territorial 2016 year. This also applies to areas that played a key role in the plans of groups ", - said a senior analyst at IHS MarkitColumbus Strek.
This assessment was made without taking into account the subsequent "caliphate" defeats in eastern Mosul and tangible advance of government troops in the western Iraqi city. British experts calculations fell also less tangible territorial losses IG in Syria Raqqa province, the eponymous administrative center which today is taken in a fairly tight semicircle supported by the United States forces of the Arab-Kurdish coalition "Wrath of the Euphrates" ( "Syrian Democratic Forces", DSS).
But narrowing the territorial limits Daishev simultaneously at the front in the Iraqi province of Nineveh, and the Syrian province of Raqqa has not yet led to a qualitative turning point in the war with the "caliphate". Even under the Americans favored the territorial angle calculation of intermediate results of the military campaign. One look at the schematic map of Middle East media to understand the following. Terrorists retain impressive, and most importantly a holistic, not fragmented into enclaves territorial piece between Iraq and Syria. It's a big part of the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor, the eastern regions of the province of Homs, and yet controlled territory on the outskirts of Raqqa. In Iraq, for "caliphate" is still a big part of the western province of Anbar.
In the case of evaluation Daishev losses in manpower, which is an order of magnitude more important in terms of determining the degree of resistance groups with its "jihadist infantry," the situation is not better. Early last month, it was possible to hear from the 12 000 to 15 000 IG militants now fighting in Iraq and Syria. These data led the commander of "Operation Enduring determination" Lieutenant General US Armed ForcesStiven Taunsend.
Despite the heavy losses in manpower, to the last time the IG managed to replenish personnel due to the constant influx of foreign fighters. However, with the strengthening of the control on the Turkish-Syrian border "caliphate" gradually lost this human resource, say the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs.
It is noteworthy that during the period of 2015-2016's US Armed Forces assessed the number of combat formations Daishev approximately two times higher - up to 30 thousand jihadists. Simple arithmetic gives the result of a two-fold reduction of the personnel of the "army" of the IG. So whether it is in fact with all metering casualties from the enemy not only as a rule of thumb, the big question. The answer is not long in coming, and came from the same Americans. This time not from the fighting generals with their bravura speeches and the people in Washington, who, due to their current positions are required to be much more cautious in the estimates.
US intelligence agencies do not have accurate information about the number remaining in Iraq and Syria Daishev militants. This 5 April speech at the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), admitted the director of strategic operational planning at the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) US GeneralMaykl Nagata.
About 40 thousand foreign fighters from more than 120 countries joined the group in Iraq and Syria to 2013 years, said the American general. "We know that destroyed several thousand foreign fighters Daishev in Iraq and Syria - Nagata said. - But we are not able to provide an exact figure. This is a significant amount. "
Estimates of representatives of the two camps in the American contingent Vashingone directly in the Middle East, respectively, "analysts" and "warriors" agree on one thing. This is a statement incurred tip Daishev most serious losses from the time of her stay in 2014 year at its peak. "Caliphate" has not yet beheaded alive remains its leaderAbu Bakr al-Baghdadi. But, as reported in the March general Townshend, in the last months of the US Armed Forces' specific campaign "to detect and eliminate the leaders Daishev destroyed" unprecedented number "of the closest associates of al-Baghdadi.
Simultaneously, the US allies "unwavering in our determination to" coalition soberly point to the fact that "the scars of war remain long after the battle." This was in February, said the deputy commander of coalition forces British GeneralRupert Dzhons(1).
So, the result shown by the Americans "tysyachidnevki" military campaign in Iraq and Syria is not impressive. They bore the burden within the "international coalition". US Air Force deal 68% of all strikes by coalition forces in Iraq and 95% in Syria (2). US Special Forces began to operate almost openly on counterterrorism theater of operations, are increasingly engaging in direct combat contact with "jihadist infantry." Americans are actively installs new point forward deployed synchronously expanding opportunities already available to them strongholds in the region (airbase "Tabka", "Rmeylan" and "Cobán" in Syria, "Takaddum" and "qayyarah" - in Iraq). This is the new algorithm for a comprehensive military campaign against Daishev presented by the Pentagon as President StrategyDonald Trumpat the end of February.
"Caliphate" is trying to counter that their fresh ideas, with the same application for an integrated approach. So, as the loss of control over western Mosul and approaching evacuation of militants with the families of Raqqa, the tip Daishev, according to Iraqi intelligence, has entered into negotiations with the "Al-Qaeda" on the conclusion of the alliance. At one time (by February 2014-th) LIH severed all connection with the "parent structure". Now, sensing an impending disaster, trying to recover them. Confirm the details of Iraq intelligence (although we in this matter can talk about deliberate misinformation) Daishev return will happen only on an "al-Qaeda". This turn complicate the situation, especially in Syria, where under the influence of the organizationAyman al-Zawahiriare groups that traditionally gravitate to join one alliance with Daishev.
Perhaps it is the threat of creating a single Jihadist fronts will force Americans to reassess their previous policy setting. For example, in terms of categorical rejection of any coordination with Russia in Syria. If it took the Americans 1000 days and nights agonizing quest recipe killing "Caliphate", which originally was obvious - the union of the United States and Russia's efforts, then there is a chance that since August 2014-33 months of limited time, missed opportunities.
(1) ISIS Losing Fighters, Leaders, Resources, Inherent Resolve Spokesman Says, defense.gov, February 15, 2017.
(2) At the end of February 2017 the US costs "unshakable determination" are very close to $ 12 billion. Each day of operation facilitates the pockets of American taxpayers an average of an additional $ 12,8 million. Thus, to 4 May, 1000-day-turn of the operation, its official price is already close to 13-billion mark. For reference, in 2014, all humanitarian assistance of the United Nations program on a global scale were estimated at $ 13 billion However, for America -. It is not the most money. For example, the construction of one of the newest aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford has cost the US at the same $ 13 billion.