The Ministry of Defense of Russia reported on the Pentagon's cooperation with IGIL *, thus accusing the Allies of a behind-the-scenes deal with the enemy. In his opinion, the militants of the "Caliphate" began to play along with the US special forces and the US allies-the Kurds. However, why not assume that the fighters of IGIL simply retreat before the Americans? Why did our servicemen come forward with such serious accusations?
On Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the "Islamic State" unchecked the special forces of the United States and the US-controlled detachments of the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDS) unimpeded through its military formations.
"Without meeting the resistance of the IGIL fighters," the SDS units are advancing along the left bank of the Euphrates River in the direction of the city of Deir ez Zor, "it reported on Facebook, confirming aerial photos taken from 8 on 12 September and a map of the area. It is noted that American technology, in particular Hammer spetsnaz vehicles, is located right in the areas of deployment of the IGIL units.
"The photographs clearly show that US special forces are located in strong points, previously equipped with IGIL fighters. However, there are no traces of assault, clashes with the terrorists of IGIL or craters from the attacks of the international coalition aircraft around these objects. Despite the fact that the strong points of the US Armed Forces are located in the areas of the current deployment of the IGIL troops, they do not even have signs of organization of combat security. This can only mean that all US servicemen who live there feel themselves in areas held by terrorists in complete safety, "the report says.
Can the interests of the coalition and the "Caliphate" coincide?
The conclusion is that Americans, SDS and IGIL have concluded a deal between themselves - behind Moscow and Damascus. The interests of coalition forces and Islamists in this region are now identical, military analyst Alexander Asafov told the Federal News Agency. According to him, Deir ez Zor is the "Berlin of the Syrian War", and the one who takes it will be able to ascribe to himself the laurels of the winner, and the US wants to ensure the capture of this city by the SDS. "That's why the Americans are now pushing the Kurds along the Euphrates coast and towards the city," the expert said.
«Ради спасения собственной шкуры представители «Исламского государства» сейчас будут вести переговоры с кем угодно», – подчеркнул Асафов.
Assumptions that SDS can act in concert with IGIL have already been put forward. They were based on the fact that recently there were no fighting between these groups in this region. It was also reported that from the areas in which the SDS militants, together with the US special forces, are stationed, Syrian troops twice opened a massive fire from mortars and rocket artillery.
The victory in Deir ez Zorah will in fact mean a historic victory over IGIL. Incidentally, that's why the Americans, not having fully understood with Raccoon, redirected their efforts to Deir ez Zor. In addition, Deir-ez-Zor is rich in the largest hydrocarbon deposits and is important as a transportation interchange.
"SDS is quite actively moving on the left bank and occupied several deposits," head of the department for studies of the Middle East conflicts of the Institute of Innovative Development Anton Mardasov told VZGLYAD. - VTS agree to their self-government in those territories that they occupy, and not submission to Damascus. Kurds have historically been in a bad relationship with Damascus. They occupy territories in order to use them later, including for negotiations with Damascus. "
In addition, Deir ez Zor is a key point for Iran as a way to the Mediterranean. The left bank of the Euphrates is needed for Iran for land corridors, explained Mardasov. According to him, such corridors serve not only for business, but also for the transfer of Iranian radical groups, which the Americans want to prevent.
It is hardly a question of cooperation between the US, SDS and IGIL
But to say that the Americans, SDS and IGIL have become allies, it is still impossible. It is unlikely that the US is so naive that suddenly openly go to transactions with the "Caliphate", because this they can not explain to anyone, even their citizens.
Secondly, the Americans can not fail to understand that no entry of the SDS into battles on the side of the IGSF would not have caused the Syrian armed forces to drown. The defeat of the "Islamic state" in this region is a matter of time. Thus, to support the Islamists would be a rather meaningless step.
Yes, and SDS to allied with the Islamists are not out of hand. "The Syrian democratic forces" are really struggling with the "Islamic state", and quite successfully, Mardasov stressed. In addition, the number of fighters that the "Syrian Democratic Forces" lost in the battles with IGIL over the past two years - there are hundreds of people, he added.
And if the Islamists, by and large, have nothing to lose, then for the Kurds it would be strange in such conditions to begin to fight shoulder to shoulder with their worst enemy. Yes, the "Syrian democratic forces" are strongly opposed to Bashar Assad and his troops and would be ready to fight them, but the "caliphate" is not the enemy with whom it would be possible to suddenly conclude an alliance.
Perhaps the militants of IGIL simply retreated
If you look at the map published by the Defense Ministry, then it seems much more logical to see another option. It is possible that the SDS entered the rear of the "Islamic state" to launch their own offensive simultaneously with the Asad troops, but from the opposite direction, Mardasov did not rule out. This would allow us to occupy important zones of influence, meeting and not letting on the oncoming Syrian army.
In addition, the Kurds could pursue some other goals in the rear of the IGIL. "Successes in Deer-ez-Zor's deblocking are largely due to the fact that the Americans fettered the IGIL, they were pulling forces to that shore," the expert said.
Rather, the Islamists simply left these regions without a fight, such examples have already been observed, Mardasov said. "If they do not see the point of defending the terrain, they can stand to the death, they can pass it without ceremony," he explained. After all, the main militant forces are now concentrated not in these sparsely populated areas, but in Al-Bukamal and Al-Mayadin.
In addition, the interlocutor noted that it is necessary to understand the specific situation on the ground: "It's not just the only fighters of the" Islamic state "in black armbands." Part of the territory is controlled by the militia, created only under the auspices of IGIL, as well as by tribes. And they could well miss the SDS and the Americans.
Its trump card in information policy
Заявление же Минобороны, скорее, стоит рассматривать в рамках информационной войны. Как американское командование старается дискредитировать российские успехи по борьбе с террором, так и российское исповедует такие методы. «Это рассчитано на медийную картинку», – предположил Мардасов.
«Американцы все время говорят про российских хакеров, а теперь у нас есть свой козырь – говорить, что американцы аффилированы с ИГИЛ»,
- he added. "From the point of view of information policy this is a competent step, because we basically defended ourselves, and now it makes sense to criticize," the expert said. However, according to him, "no matter how we criticize the Americans, and they have something to criticize," one must understand that what is happening in public does not correspond very much to real military operations.
As Mardasov noted, it's no secret that in Syria negotiations are conducted by everyone, as it is dictated by necessity. For example, the body of one of our military was returned last year as a result of negotiations of Kurds with IGIL. And during the recent evacuation of one of the groups that swore to the "Islamic state", from the province of Damascus to Deir ez Zor in the western coalition they began to say that the Syrian authorities do it deliberately to prevent the SDS from advancing on the left bank of the Euphrates.