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20.11.2017

Angela Merkel will have to choose from two risky options

The fourth term of Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany is under threat. The failure of inter-party talks on the creation of a government coalition plunged the country into a state of shock, German experts state. Now Merkel and her associates, who are in the minority, have two options for behavior. None of them, however, does not guarantee that the "frau chancellor" will remain at the helm.

"Merkel has failed. It's time for her to step down as chancellor, "said Alexander Gauland, co-chairman of the AdG faction in the Bundestag, on Monday, one of the leaders of the right-wing" Alternative for Germany "(AdG) party.

So he assessed the failure of the negotiations on the creation of a new coalition. On Monday night it became known that after 12 hours of negotiations, Merkel's supporters from the CDU-CSU failed to agree with the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the "green". This failure makes the shaky perspective of the new government of the country and raises the question of the political future of Merkel, who was recently re-elected for a fourth term.

Let us explain: after the September elections to the Bundestag, Merkel's comrades from the CDU-CSU block received only 33%, which turned out to be the worst result in history, although it brought a relative victory to this bloc. The second Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), which was in the coalition with the CDU-CSU, refused to renew the alliance before the elections. The Social Democrats immediately announced their withdrawal to the opposition immediately after the elections. And now this second major force on the German political arena has reaffirmed its decision.

Bloc Merkel, in order to create a viable government, had to forge a new coalition, nicknamed "Jamaica" (party colors CDU, CSU, FDP and "green" in total give the flag of Jamaica). But, as was said above, the coalition collapsed. "The four parties do not have a common vision of the development of the country and a common basis of trust," stated the leader of the "free democrats" Christian Lindner and left the talks. After that, the "green ones" also left.

To play or agree to instability

Now there are two options: re-election to the Bundestag (which is more likely) or the creation of the so-called government of a parliamentary minority. Pyrrhic victory of the CDU-CSU, in fact, turned the former ruling party into a minority.

If Angela Merkel goes to the second option, then, according to experts, she will guarantee the extremely unstable position of her office. The decisions of the new government of Merkel will most likely depend on the voices of the oppositionists in the Bundestag (and such will be all parties except the chancellor's companions). European practice shows that such governments are often given a vote of no confidence.

The representative of the "green" Jürgen Trittin announced that his party "excluded the possibility of participation in the minority government." The leader of the "free democrats" Lindner on Monday afternoon "a little back" and said: the liberals do not intend to assume the role of a "fundamental opposition" and will be ready to support the minority government.

It is difficult to imagine that Merkel really went on to create a minority government, the German political scientist Alexander Rahr said in a conversation with the newspaper. He noted that

now the country is in a state of shock.

Germany faces political instability and it is necessary to save the democratic process.

The country has nothing to do but re-elections, stressed in a comment to the newspaper VZGLYAD and the leading researcher of the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe RAS Alexander Kamkin. He suggests: re-elections are unlikely to benefit policymakers who failed to agree. Most likely, they will lose their points, the interlocutor said.

Merkel was "above the fight." Will it be appreciated by the Germans?

If uncompromising partners for the failed Jamaica predict a failure, then, according to Kamkin, the current situation will not shake Merkel's position. She behaved very competently, the expert considers.

All these months, while negotiations were going on, the chancellor was not heard or seen. She did not do anything, the second-tier players did everything for her: Lindner, the "green" and others who actually discredited themselves by the failure of the talks, Kamkin stressed. The interlocutor noted: "They actually showed themselves as people incapable of negotiating and compromising. This intransigence, the conflict of political leaders in some other country, perhaps, would attract the attention of the electorate. But the Germans love stability and order. "

Merkel, meanwhile, in the discussion between these "second-tier players was completely over the fight," the expert said. So you can expect that the Chancellor will position himself as the only person in the country who can resolve this difficult situation and thereby try to improve his position compared to the latest results.

The CDU seems to be able to win back both from free democrats and from the same "Alternative", it will become a stronger actor and will be able to return to the idea of ​​renewing a large coalition, Kamkin summed up.

"Merkel is no longer a leader"

Alexander Rahr, however, believes that Angela Merkel is waiting for much darker prospects. At the re-election, a number of parties will go with the new leaders, the expert pointed out and did not rule out that "Christian democrats will also go without Merkel". "After all, it has a big share of responsibility for the failure to create this government and the current situation," the expert said.

He recalled that Merkel had one failure after another. It provoked a refugee crisis, after which Germany split into those who are for and against. She lost the last election - the CDU, although it remained the strongest, but in fact lost the status of the people's party. Now Merkel has brought the country to a state where it is impossible to create a coalition. "Although the president gave him a mandate under the constitution to create a capable government. This is its third failure, "the political scientist said.

In his opinion, "it was precisely the policy to destroy Merkel all the time." The Chancellor has successfully used it for the last 12 years, say, let others quarrel, after which she joined the one who won. "But now it has not passed," said the political scientist. Yes, Merkel will try to "blame" on other parties, but most likely, "she will not get out," Rahr believes.

He noted that now the CDU will begin discussing how to return the party to the status of the people, how to recapture 40% of votes. "It's impossible with Merkel. In the eyes of its own party representatives, it no longer suits the leaders, "the political scientist believes. In his opinion, the CDU is about to "fight for her inheritance". This will be the main intrigue of the next days and, perhaps, weeks, added Rahr.

He expressed hope that in the end the crisis will be resolved and a large coalition that has existed until now will return. However, perhaps it will be "already with the new leaders, with the new chancellor," the expert did not rule out.

A source: LOOK

Author: Marina Baltachevo, Michael Moshkin

Tags: Merkel, Germany, Politics, Europe, Analytics