Trump is preparing to Erdogan's "deep penetration" in the Middle East.
16-17 May, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Washington on an official visit. In the US capital, he will hold the first personal meeting with the new president of the United States, Donald Trump. Literally from the first days of winning the election Trump Ankara sent to the White House signals the desirability of such a meeting. However, in the administration declared that the conditions are not created for it, as the new American policy strategy in the Middle East is only preparing. But it was only an excuse, nothing prevented the president invited Erdogan to confidential fireside chats.
The Turkish leader is sure that he has reached world-class status of the policy, became a full member of the "Big Twenty." Erdogan has positioned itself in the Middle East as a politician who managed to "throw in the dustbin of the decline of the last two centuries and mentally revive glorious majesty of the Ottoman Empire." This, according to Ankara's view, allowing it to safely discuss admitted again in her opinion, "mistakes Baraka Obamy administration's Middle East policy", gives confidence that Turkey will be able to influence Washington and force him to shift the strategic emphasis in this region . But…
US and Turkey share a largely different approaches on combating LIH (organization, whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation). Gaining strength the Kurdish factor, and not without feed Americans. Administration Trump publicly announced plans to arm the unit directly to Syrian Kurds Raqqa assault. According to the Minister of National Defense of Turkey Fikri Isik, the decision itself is the source of the crisis. Ankara has threatened to unleash a war, while previously it has already caused a series of "limited" strikes on Kurdish positions in northern Syria divisions. In fact, this may mean that Turkey, a US ally in NATO, is able to start him against military action.
Erdogan said that "Ankara's patience is over" and stressed that "the United States should reconsider its decision." It is most disturbing that in northern Syria Kurdish autonomy may appear, and this, in turn, will provoke a large-scale separatist movement among the millions of Turkish Kurds. On the eve of the meeting with Trump Turkish president he said that "personally inform" his counterpart about Turkey's position "with regard to the processes in Syria and Iraq." According to him, "every event in Syria and Iraq affects the national security of Turkey." Erdogan 'hopes that Turkey will stand on the side of the Allies and Ankara will not support terrorist organizations. "
At the same time, he declares that "opposes the separation of Syria." And it looks a bit strange. Ankara with Moscow and Tehran is acting as guarantors of the Memorandum on the establishment of a de-escalation areas in Syria. It is not by chance sat down at the negotiating table with Russia and Iran. However, according to the Turkish edition of Türkiye, "I do it later, for a long time waiting for the necessary steps themselves Trump Syrian administration" and "in an alliance with Moscow and Tehran have not reached agreement in many ways such as like Turkey." Now the situation is such that if Trump administration wish to continue the policy of Obama's Syrian period, is, speaking theoretically, lead to the fact that Ankara will make a choice in favor of continuing the process of rapprochement with Russia and Iran in the Syrian issue.
But it will not manage the process itself. It's waiting for her inevitable in the case of strengthening the alliance with the Americans. Perhaps a compromise will be found during the visit of the Turkish president to Washington. Erdogan hopes that the US decision to arm the Syrian Kurds will be reviewed prior to his arrival in the US capital. But, according to the balance of power in the international system, and the Middle East, Turkey does not have the power that allows to determine the future of Syria and the whole region.
As recently wrote Hürriyet The Turkish edition, Ankara "must be prepared to redraw Syria and the Middle East, the Kurdish factor will occupy an important place." The "bottom line", according to the newspaper, can stay - the first stage - the practical implementation of the "Kurdish federation in the neighborhood of the Syrian and Iraqi borders of Turkey", which the US and Israel promise to pass under the control of protektoratnoe Ankara. In the second stage of autonomy can get Turkish Kurds, and the federalization of the project will be exported to Iran. By the way, the Turkish media believe that Moscow "is also" wink "of Syria in the proposed federalization her draft constitutional principles".
Therefore, we can assume that during the talks in Washington, President Trump will try to build Erdogan operation "deep penetration" in the region. In this regard, the Turkish historian Ayse Zarakolu suggests that Americans "will transfer its relations with Turkey in the formula 'from cooperation to conflict and vice versa." The situation is aggravated by the fact that the President of Turkey, tight knot of problems of internal and foreign policy: one follows from the other, and vice versa. Thus, the results held 16 April referendum on constitutional amendments, writes British newspaper Financial Times, «Erdogan won, lost half of Turkey."
This is the first and main point, which weakens its bargaining power in negotiations with Trump. Second, on the eve of Erdogan's visit to Washington, US Director of National Intelligence, Deniel Kouts warned the White House that "by the end of this year we should expect increasing tensions in Turkey, things can happen very quickly." So in the US capital, Erdogan, a very difficult, possibly fatal for the negotiations of Turkey.