China welcomed the coming visit of the Trump, the head Xi Jinping, Secretary of State taking Rex Tillerson. The state of relations of the two major world powers, and it is important for Russia, and it is clear that the artillery preparation in the Chinese direction Trump finished. Is it set against Beijing is extremely tough and is the outer part of a much more subtle game?
On Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson flew from Beijing home, ending their tour of the Far East, during which he first visited Tokyo and Seoul. American press tour is best remembered by the fact that the Secretary of State did not take it with you - or rather, with him on the plane there was only one representative of the online edition. Such was not more than half a century.
And if you recall the history of US-China relations, then at once interesting parallels arise. The last time a tall emissary from Washington arrived in Beijing without an escort of the press in 1971 - and this was Henry Kissinger, the president's national security adviser. Then, however, there were not even diplomatic relations between the two countries. That trip of the closest associate of President Nixon was the first visit since the formation of "red China" and changed the geopolitical reality, setting the beginning of the American game in the US-USSR-China triangle.
Now Rex Tillerson, who came to the State Department of Exxon Mobil, just decided not to take the press tour in the Far East, as well as the excuses cited the upcoming strong reduction of the State Department budget. However, the manner Tillerson due not only to its non-public at the last place of work, but also with the unprecedented attack by the media, which is subject to the administration of Trump in all possible directions. And international affairs - is no exception.
Relations with Russia have become so toxic that the parties are not in a hurry to even know each other - two months after the inauguration was held only one meeting at a high level - and Tillerson Lavrov talks in Bonn. And then, there they were on the summit of "Big Twenty", and would have that meeting was not. But what can not be done with Russia, it is possible with China - and here for the same time there was a mass of interest.
Freedom hands on the Chinese front is explained very simply - Trump always campaign hard enough spoken about China. That is, if he was going to Russia to "get along" that China had threatened to declare a trade war. After winning the election to this was added something else.
Firstly, Trump responded to a phone call the President of Taiwan, and then, defensively, also questioned the principle of "one China", which is based on US-China relations as such. Second, Trump became a constantly repeated argument that "China is doing too little to help the United States" in the situation around the North Korean nuclear program. Third, Tillerson and other officials said that Washington will not allow Beijing has established control over the disputed islands in the South China Sea.
In general, the administration caught up with Trump decent degree in bilateral relations - at least, so it seemed to the media and analysts minded.
And in reality, all this was just a preparation for trading. Trump really wants to change the trade balance that is very unprofitable for his country with the PRC and trumps the atmosphere banally before a serious talk on duties, the RMB rate and so on. No, of course, the US and China have very serious geopolitical contradictions, and the Korean peninsula, like the South China Sea, is the arena of the struggle between them, but Trump, of course, did not intend to abandon the "one China" principle, nor do other sharp movements that could lead to a crisis in bilateral relations. In Beijing, all this has been understood for a long time, especially since several meetings have already been held at a high level.
After 10 February, when the telephone conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping took place (then the US president stated that he proceeds from the principle of "one China"), a meeting of the heads of two Foreign Ministries - Van I and Tillerson in Bonn (within the same format, as with Lavrov) and a trip to Washington by State Councilor Yang Jiechi (former foreign minister). Jan's meeting with Trump was the meeting of the C's representative with the American leader - and Tillerson's current visit was the return visit of Emissary Trump to the Chinese leader. Thus, in less than a month and a half both sides have traveled most of the way to the summit - and now it is already possible to speculate about when and where it will take place.
Apparently, Trump had Stakhanov plans on this matter - if you believe the leakage, he invited Si to come to him in Florida on 6 April. But this information was merged (and it is clear that the enemies of Trump) even before Tillerson's trip, and now there are official, albeit vague comments from both sides. Thus, the message of the Secretary of State's meeting with the PRC President says that Tillerson, passing on Trump's message, noted that the US president "highly appreciates" contacts with the head of the Chinese state and expects that the meeting of the two leaders "will be held as soon as possible" and Trump is ready "on occasion to make a visit to China."
The Xinhua report highlights that:
"US Secretary of State noted that D. Trump pays special attention to relations with Xi Jinping, looks forward to the meeting of the heads of the two states and the ability to pay a visit to China.
The American side is ready in the spirit of the lack of conflict and confrontation, mutual respect and mutually beneficial cooperation to promote the development of relations with China in order to continuously enhance mutual understanding and strengthen bilateral coordination and cooperation, and jointly meet the challenges facing the international community, said R. Tillerson.
Xi Jinping ordered R. Tillerson convey his greetings J. Trump and welcomed the coming visit of the US president in China. "
Translating from the diplomatic - tell the president that we are waiting for him in Beijing. But the trip to Mar-a-Lago, the residence of Trump, will not take place not only because C is not in any hurry - after all, it is in the United States that the internal turmoil, and not in China, is fomenting. No, it's another matter - in respect of diplomatic decency (and they are the most important part of the country's authority and, incidentally, an indicator of self-esteem). There is a protocol rule - visits of heads of state to each other alternate. And the surname of the president, that is, the change of the head of state, does not matter - it is important only that you need to go by turns.
Xi Jinping was in the US for a state visit in the autumn of 2015-th - then Obama came to China only on the summit of the "Big Twenty." And that does not count - not the format of bilateral relations. That's why C and said Tillerson - pass Trump, now it is his turn. Nothing personal - relations of the states above their relationship managers. In Chinese own pride, and tradition are of utmost importance.
A trip to Sea Mar a Lago, even decorated as a business, paid a working visit, it would look like something extraordinary. That is to show that China needs the US more than they are in it. And this is not the case - and in the case, if we are talking about the state, and then, if we are talking about Trump and Xi Jinping.
So now Trump or have to wait until the beginning of July, when in Hamburg will meet the head of the "Big Twenty", or go to China. It is likely that he will choose the second option - including because they do not want to be put off by the middle of summer, just two important meetings for him - with Putin and Xi Jinping. In addition, while preparing for the summit in Hamburg would be transformed for Trump and his entire team in a living hell - would have had to conduct four major events a few days (she G20, meeting with European allies, plus a meeting-acquaintance with Putin and Xi).
However, there is the likelihood that the US-Russian relations have come out of the zone and shelling Trump could legally meet with Putin in any third country.
Or to go to Moscow - the protocol is now foremost American president to come to us (the last high-level visit was in 2010-m - when Dmitry Medvedev was Barack Obama). But to see Trump in Russia in the coming months will not work - because it is terrible to imagine what the headlines would have come up with for this trip American press.