China welcomed the coming visit of the Trump, the head Xi Jinping, Secretary of State taking Rex Tillerson. The state of relations of the two major world powers, and it is important for Russia, and it is clear that the artillery preparation in the Chinese direction Trump finished. Is it set against Beijing is extremely tough and is the outer part of a much more subtle game?
On Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson flew from Beijing home, ending their tour of the Far East, during which he first visited Tokyo and Seoul. American press tour is best remembered by the fact that the Secretary of State did not take it with you - or rather, with him on the plane there was only one representative of the online edition. Such was not more than half a century.
And if you recall the history of US-China relations, or even interesting parallels suggest themselves. Last time the high emissary flew from Washington to Beijing unaccompanied press in 1971 year - and it was Henry Kissinger, the president's national security adviser. Then, however, the two countries did not even have diplomatic relations. That trip close ally of President Nixon's visit was the first since the formation of "Red China" and changed the geopolitical reality, marking the beginning of the American game in the United States Triangle - the Soviet Union - China.
Now Rex Tillerson, who came to the State Department of Exxon Mobil, just decided not to take the press tour in the Far East, as well as the excuses cited the upcoming strong reduction of the State Department budget. However, the manner Tillerson due not only to its non-public at the last place of work, but also with the unprecedented attack by the media, which is subject to the administration of Trump in all possible directions. And international affairs - is no exception.
Relations with Russia have become so toxic that the parties are not in a hurry to even know each other - two months after the inauguration was held only one meeting at a high level - and Tillerson Lavrov talks in Bonn. And then, there they were on the summit of "Big Twenty", and would have that meeting was not. But what can not be done with Russia, it is possible with China - and here for the same time there was a mass of interest.
Freedom hands on the Chinese front is explained very simply - Trump always campaign hard enough spoken about China. That is, if he was going to Russia to "get along" that China had threatened to declare a trade war. After winning the election to this was added something else.
Firstly, Trump responded to a phone call the President of Taiwan, and then, defensively, also questioned the principle of "one China", which is based on US-China relations as such. Second, Trump became a constantly repeated argument that "China is doing too little to help the United States" in the situation around the North Korean nuclear program. Third, Tillerson and other officials said that Washington will not allow Beijing has established control over the disputed islands in the South China Sea.
In general, the administration caught up with Trump decent degree in bilateral relations - at least, so it seemed to the media and analysts minded.
But in reality it was only a preparation for trading. Trump really wants to change very disadvantageous for his country's trade balance with China and the banal to the atmosphere before a serious conversation on the duties, the RMB exchange rate and so on. No, of course, the United States and China have a serious geopolitical contradictions, and the Korean peninsula, as well as the South China Sea, it is the scene of the fight between the two, but that's only Trump, of course, was not going to give up the principle of "one China", nor do other sudden movements that could lead to a crisis in bilateral relations. In Beijing, all knew it for a long time, especially since it's been several high-level meetings.
After 10 February, when a telephone conversation between Trump and Xi Jinping (then US president said that based on the principle of "one China"), have already passed the meeting of the two Foreign - Wang and Tillerson in Bonn (in the framework of the same size, that Lavrov) and a trip to Washington, China's State Councilor Yang (former foreign Minister). Meeting with Ian Trump was a meeting with a representative of C American leader - and the current visit Tillerson became reciprocal visit Trump emissary to the Chinese leader. Thus, in less than a month and a half, both sides went most of the way to the Summit - and we can now speculate about when and where it takes place.
Apparently, we were Stakhanovite Trump plans in this regard - if you believe the leaks, he invited Xi to visit him in Florida already 6 April. But this information leaked (it being understood that the enemies Trump) before the trip Tillerson, and now there are official, albeit vague comments on both sides. So, in the notice of meeting, the Secretary of State to the Chinese President said that Tillerson, conveying the message of Trump, said that the US president "appreciated" contacts with the head of the Chinese state and expects that the meeting between the two leaders "will take place as soon as possible" and Trump ready "on occasion to visit China."
The Xinhua report highlights that:
"US Secretary of State noted that D. Trump pays special attention to relations with Xi Jinping, looks forward to the meeting of the heads of the two states and the ability to pay a visit to China.
The American side is ready in the spirit of the lack of conflict and confrontation, mutual respect and mutually beneficial cooperation to promote the development of relations with China in order to continuously enhance mutual understanding and strengthen bilateral coordination and cooperation, and jointly meet the challenges facing the international community, said R. Tillerson.
Xi Jinping ordered R. Tillerson convey his greetings J. Trump and welcomed the coming visit of the US president in China. "
Translating from the diplomatic - conveyed to the President that we are waiting for him in Beijing. But a trip to Mar-a-Lago, Trump's residence, will not take place, not only because there is no need to rush Xi - after all, it is in the United States is now inflames the inner turmoil, but not in China. No, it's just different - in compliance with diplomatic propriety (and they - the most important part of the prestige of the country and, by the way, self-indicator). There is a protocol rule - the visits of heads of states to each other alternate. And the name of the president, that is, the change of the head of state, it does not matter - the important thing is that you need to drive at a time.
Xi Jinping was in the US for a state visit in the autumn of 2015-th - then Obama came to China only on the summit of the "Big Twenty." And that does not count - not the format of bilateral relations. That's why C and said Tillerson - pass Trump, now it is his turn. Nothing personal - relations of the states above their relationship managers. In Chinese own pride, and tradition are of utmost importance.
A trip to Sea Mar a Lago, even decorated as a business, paid a working visit, it would look like something extraordinary. That is to show that China needs the US more than they are in it. And this is not the case - and in the case, if we are talking about the state, and then, if we are talking about Trump and Xi Jinping.
So now Trump or have to wait until the beginning of July, when in Hamburg will meet the head of the "Big Twenty", or go to China. It is likely that he will choose the second option - including because they do not want to be put off by the middle of summer, just two important meetings for him - with Putin and Xi Jinping. In addition, while preparing for the summit in Hamburg would be transformed for Trump and his entire team in a living hell - would have had to conduct four major events a few days (she G20, meeting with European allies, plus a meeting-acquaintance with Putin and Xi).
However, there is the likelihood that the US-Russian relations have come out of the zone and shelling Trump could legally meet with Putin in any third country.
Or to go to Moscow - the protocol is now foremost American president to come to us (the last high-level visit was in 2010-m - when Dmitry Medvedev was Barack Obama). But to see Trump in Russia in the coming months will not work - because it is terrible to imagine what the headlines would have come up with for this trip American press.