Does Russia have grounds for optimism due to the problems of the American nuclear companies.
Headings our big news agencies in recent days literally blossomed "sensational" headlines on the same topic: "Ukraine delivers nuclear fuel Westinghouse decided to declare bankruptcy", "Energy Company of Westinghouse start bankruptcy proceedings", "American Westinghouse Electric will go bankrupt." And in almost every kind of messages - a reminder of how to develop relations in the triangle of "Energoatom" - "Rosatom" - "Westinghouse", is read as an allusion to the fact that Russian readers can begin to enjoy the problems of the American company.
Strictly necessary and references article 11 US Bankruptcy Code, and without any attempt to explain what this article is why it is used and to whom, in fact, it is beneficial. The analysis of news - it boring, blown away plaque sensationalism, and even making the text more cumbersome.
And there is only one news agency, which risked to illuminate the subject a little bit earlier than the last decade of March.
"... the current owner of the company - corporation Toshiba, which is increasingly interested in only one thing to sell in order to improve their shaky case. Sell, never to communicate, because in Japan does not operate nuclear power plants, the construction of new ones is not seen in any term. Sell it now, while you can get a decent price and protect their more promising areas "
This is a direct quote from an article published 3 February. "Regnum" news agency was the only one who decided that the analysis of the situation and attempt to forecast made by the magazine "Geoenergetika" deserve the attention of readers. In the same article it was considered possible candidates for the purchase of Westinghouse:
"Among those who could qualify for a purchase, observers called the Japanese corporation MHI. The difficulty, however, is that MHI has partner relations with the French and even tries to develop a project of the light water reactor ATMEA-1 generation III + with them. Another possible candidate is KEPCO from South Korea. South Korean enterprises are among the suppliers for blocks with AP-1000. In addition, it is known that KEPCO is negotiating the inclusion of investors in the project for the construction of the Murside NPP in the UK with AP-1000 reactors. But KEPCO has its own successful reactor project APR-1400, and it is not known whether the South Korean company needs control over the project-competitor. It should also be added that KEPCO prefers to be cautious in the nuclear business and does not like risky transactions, and the purchase of Westinghouse will surely be that way "
It was made and a small analysis of what is at Westinghouse in the asset, and that - in liabilities.
"The option with the sale of Westinghouse is the most logical, because all problems with Toshiba are connected with this structural unit. And the buyer - no. Due to the problems associated with the unsuccessful attempts to build reactors of generation III +, the company owning 31% of the world nuclear fuel market for nuclear power plants has no buyers. And the technology AP-1000 to the mind to bring really not anyone. But if the buyer is found, not only problems, but also factories for the production of fuel, and contracts for the supply of this fuel, and contracts for the decontamination of decommissioned reactors in several countries, including the United States, will pass to him. ... the planned [for 2017 year] profit on fuel supplies and services for nuclear power plants was envisaged at the level of 3,5 billion dollars per year. The planned profit on decommissioning and decontamination of nuclear power plants is another 266,5 million dollars annually. In the end, if suddenly on Westinghouse there is a buyer who wants to risk, then the project can be profitable. "
The only thing missing in our February forecast - thinking about the features of that article 11 the US Bankruptcy Code. The main reason why this has not been done - the size of the article, which is more than one and a half pages of text. But as for the analytical magazine "Geoenergetika" and the news agency "Regnum" nothing sensational about the coming bankruptcy messages Westinghouse not, let's try this news is not "shout" and analyze.
It is necessary to start from the fact that the initiator of the US bankruptcy procedure was not initiated by any of the third-party creditors, namely Toshiba, the parent company owning 87% of Westinghouse shares, and this was done on the basis of the article 11. And this article provides for voluntary recognition of oneself as a bankrupt, which is possible only under one condition - the written consent of the creditors, which account for at least 66,6% of the debt of the voluntary bankrupt. These creditors have the right to create a committee-committee as a body that will conduct the bankruptcy procedure. Of course, we do not have a list of those companies that owed Westinghouse Electric, but there is no doubt that this list is headed precisely by Toshiba, which regularly "put the shoulder" in all cases when, due to slowness in the construction of new nuclear power units, the American company fell under penalty. And, since it was Toshiba who initiated the bankruptcy procedure, there is no doubt that her lawyers have accurately calculated: she will lead the bankruptcy.
The situation with the Japanese is so critical that there is simply no right to make a mistake. Recall that the authorized capital of the Japanese corporation is 3,3 billion dollars, and the amount of losses, according to preliminary estimates - not less than 5 billion, not counting the forthcoming costs for the bankruptcy procedure. The goal Toshiba sets itself is described by us in February: "to throw off liabilities, to leave assets." With the help of bankruptcy, refuse all unprofitable contracts, leave only those that bring guaranteed profits - only in this case Westinghouse will become an attractive object of sale, only then you can try to get for it an amount that will solve at least part of the financial problems of the parent company. And the Japanese in the deepest way do not care what problems arise for all those who signed contracts with Westinghouse for the construction of new nuclear power plants, regardless of how serious such customers are. The 3 and 4 units under construction at Vogtle NPPs, 2 and 3 units at VS Summer NPP in the US, blocks at Sanmen NPP and Sayan NPP in China, or customers will somehow get out of the air, will not hang in the air - it's not Toshiba's problem. Westinghouse won the tender for the construction of 6 reactors AP-1000 in India just recently? It's also not a question - let the Hindus invent something. Was there a project in the UK? Well, it did not work out - with whom does not happen.
Construction Project Playground Westingouse
Against this background, write, and secretly glad to offer for the problems that can potentially occur in Ukrainian "Energoatom"? Excuse me, but where is the reason for such a guilty pleasure, what benefits Russia in general and in particular by Rosatom starting controlled bankruptcy Westinghouse? Let's try to find per se, if at all available.
Suppose that Toshiba's lawyers are not mistaken that everything will turn out as planned and, as a result, a deliberately profitable company will be put up for sale with some new bizarre name, as was the case with the American Enrichment Company, which, after going through "bankruptcy" -11 ", is now called not USEC (US Enrichment Company), but Centrus Energy. Let as a result of bankruptcy we see before us the company "Successful Kharakiri-2017", the proud owner of factories for the production of nuclear fuel, factories for the production of service equipment for nuclear power plants and so on. Who can become a buyer of such a knowingly profitable holding? Yes, strictly speaking, any company that has money for such an investment, which is bargaining with Toshiba for the price. But with two small reservations - this company can not have Russian or Chinese "citizenship". After all, with such a transaction related to the sale of technologies that are of critical importance to the national security of the state, the right of "veto" belongs to the US state. Donald Trump neither "Geoenergetics" nor "Regnum" reads, he even now fears the words "Russia" - he simply pecked the poor fellow with constant reproaches for the presence of even signs of respect for our country, he already overslept the "big deal". China is the main competitor, here too, without options.
Donald Ivanovich Tramp
So, the most optimistic for Russia option - Westinghouse will be bought by a money-lending company. In this case nothing will change for Russia at all. The Americans pressed the Energoatom, pushing their fuel into the reactors of the nuclear power plant - now they will be pressured, but in a wrapper from Germans, Zimbabis or some Congolese. But there is an option and much more pessimistic. Recall that until recently, the silent "big atomic three" consisted of Westinghouse, AREVA and Rosatom. With the American company it is clear that the French are currently restructuring their nuclear company, helping it to avoid bankruptcy. At the same time, Rosatom did not take any subversive and sabotage actions against competitors, they themselves dumped themselves completely before our very eyes. There is nothing to be done except to look for good words about the "dead", the dominant position simply goes to the hands of the only company from the "big three" that did not climb into any adventures, but continued to do its job, preserving and multiplying the magnificent legacy of the Minsredmash of the times THE USSR. Will it arrange someone, except for Russia itself, its dominant position in one of the most high-tech market? With the current number of "frantic well-wishers" - a rhetorical question. No no and one more time no. Russia can remain without competitors? Yes, such a thought for the West, which is full of sympathy for us, is like a red rag for a bull! First of all, the Americans themselves will try to create such a competitor, taking advantage of any opportunity.
A possibility exists, even if it is now occupied by the decisions of the problems around the post of its president. Whom are we? Yes, of South Korea, and the company KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corp.), of course. Who does not know that she like, can just look in Wikipedia, there are all very eloquently.
"At the beginning of the year 2010 South Korea won its first export order - four reactors APR-1400 UAE. Head of Power Corporation of the United Arab Emirates said:
"We were impressed with the performance of security world-class team of KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corp.), which has demonstrated the ability to achieve the objectives of the UAE program"
Today, the designs of South Korea's nuclear power plants are among the most effective and advanced in the world. The APR-1400 reactor has 40 percent more installed power than previous models, and many new security features. According to the South Korean Ministry of Knowledge Economy, the cost of fuel for APR-1400 is 23 percent lower than for the EPR reactor of the French company Areva, which is considered the most modern reactor in the world. The government also plans to develop a new NPP design that will have 10 percent higher power and a safety rating better than APR-1400. South Korea's nuclear power plants are currently operating at an installed capacity ratio of 93,4 percent, which is higher than the CMU of US stations (89,9%), France (76,1%) and Japan (59,2%). South Korean nuclear power plants are constantly demonstrating the lowest frequency of emergency outages in the world; this record is largely due to the highly standardized design of nuclear power plants and operating procedures. APR-1400 is designed, engineered, built and operated in accordance with the latest international regulatory safety requirements, including safety when dropping airplanes "
Nuclear reactor APR-1400 (KEPCO, South Korea)
South Korea has its own nuclear engineering, is able to design and build a nuclear power plant, develops a reactor design that fully meets the generation III + standard of the IAEA. Now imagine that KERSO will be reinforced with all the assets of Westinghouse. Presented? We are sure that in this case you agreed with our opinion: we see a new powerful competitor to Rosatom, whose struggle with us will be supported by all those who dream of a "torn Russian economy". Do the Koreans not have money for such a deal? Name any major US bank - and you will fall into a potential lender. In general, the managed bankruptcy of Westinghouse and the potential sale of the company to South Koreans is the most pessimistic for Russia variant of the events unfolding around Toshiba. And the most optimistic - no changes, the company "Successful Kharakiri-2017" continues to produce and supply fuel for 31% of the market, continues to produce service and transport equipment, is preparing to fulfill contracts for decontamination of nuclear sites, not allowing to break into these segments of Rosatom. The brave tone of the Westinghouse bankruptcy information messages, in our opinion, is just evidence of an incomplete understanding of the essence of the upcoming event, nothing more.