Does Russia have grounds for optimism due to the problems of the American nuclear companies.
Headings our big news agencies in recent days literally blossomed "sensational" headlines on the same topic: "Ukraine delivers nuclear fuel Westinghouse decided to declare bankruptcy", "Energy Company of Westinghouse start bankruptcy proceedings", "American Westinghouse Electric will go bankrupt." And in almost every kind of messages - a reminder of how to develop relations in the triangle of "Energoatom" - "Rosatom" - "Westinghouse", is read as an allusion to the fact that Russian readers can begin to enjoy the problems of the American company.
Strictly necessary and references article 11 US Bankruptcy Code, and without any attempt to explain what this article is why it is used and to whom, in fact, it is beneficial. The analysis of news - it boring, blown away plaque sensationalism, and even making the text more cumbersome.
And there is only one news agency, which risked to illuminate the subject a little bit earlier than the last decade of March.
"... the current owner of the company - corporation Toshiba, which is increasingly interested in only one thing to sell in order to improve their shaky case. Sell, never to communicate, because in Japan does not operate nuclear power plants, the construction of new ones is not seen in any term. Sell it now, while you can get a decent price and protect their more promising areas "
This is a direct quote from an article published 3 February. "Regnum" news agency was the only one who decided that the analysis of the situation and attempt to forecast made by the magazine "Geoenergetika" deserve the attention of readers. In the same article it was considered possible candidates for the purchase of Westinghouse:
"Among those who could qualify to buy, observers called the Japanese corporation MHI. Complexity, however, is that MHI has a partnership with the French, and even trying to develop with them a light water reactor project ATMEA-1 Generation III +. Another possible candidates - the company KEPCO of South Korea. South Korean companies are among the providers for units with AP-1000. In addition, it is known that KEPCO is negotiating for membership of the investors of the project on construction in the UK "Moorside" NPP AP-1000 reactors. But KEPCO has its own successful reactor project APR-1400, and it is unknown whether the South Korean company's control over the project, a competitor needs. It should also be added that KEPCO prefers caution in the nuclear business and does not like risky trades and buy Westinghouse, of course, it will itself "
It was made and a small analysis of what is at Westinghouse in the asset, and that - in liabilities.
"Option to the sale of Westinghouse - the most logical, because all the problems connected with Toshiba that its structural unit. A buyer - no. Because of the problems associated with the unsuccessful attempts to build reactors Generation III +, the company that owns the 31% of the world market of nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants there are no buyers. And AR-1000 technology bring to mind not really anyone. But if a buyer is found, it will pass not only the problems but also the fuel production plant, and contracts for the supply of fuel, and contracts for the decontamination of decommissioned reactors in several countries, including the United States. ... scheduled [on 2017 year] income on fuel supplies and services for nuclear power plants was provided at 3,5 billion dollars a year. The planned profit for decommissioning and decontamination of nuclear power plants - even 266,5 million dollars annually. As a result, if there is a Westinghouse suddenly willing to risk the buyer, then the project may be beneficial. "
The only thing missing in our February forecast - thinking about the features of that article 11 the US Bankruptcy Code. The main reason why this has not been done - the size of the article, which is more than one and a half pages of text. But as for the analytical magazine "Geoenergetika" and the news agency "Regnum" nothing sensational about the coming bankruptcy messages Westinghouse not, let's try this news is not "shout" and analyze.
You need to make a start from the fact that the initiator of the procedure of bankruptcy of the American company not initiated by one of the third-party lenders, namely Toshiba - the parent company, which owns Westinghouse 87% stake, and this is done on the basis of Article 11. And this article provides for voluntary recognition of the bankrupt, which is possible only on one condition - the written consent of the creditors, which account for at least 66,6% debentures voluntary bankruptcy. These lenders have the right to establish the committee, the Commission as a body, which will conduct the bankruptcy procedure. Of course, we do not have the list of those companies, which owed Westinghouse Electric, but there is no doubt that this list is headed by the Toshiba, which regularly "prepend shoulder" in all cases, when because of the sluggishness of the construction of new nuclear power units American company He came under the penalties. And, since it is Toshiba has initiated bankruptcy proceedings, there is no doubt in the fact that its lawyers have calculated exactly: to lead the bankruptcy will be exactly it.
The situation of the Japanese is so critical that the margin for error is not there. Recall that the share capital of the Japanese corporation is 3,3 billion dollars, and the amount of loss, according to preliminary estimates - at least 5 billion, not counting the upcoming costs of the bankruptcy procedure. A goal that has set itself Toshiba, described by us in February, "fold liabilities, assets leave." With the help of bankruptcy abandon all unprofitable contracts, leaving only those who bring a guaranteed profit - only in this case would be an attractive target Westinghouse sale, only for it you can try to get the amount that will solve at least some of the financial problems of the parent company. And the Japanese profoundly still, what problems arise for all those who have signed contracts with Westinghouse for the construction of new nuclear power plants, regardless of how serious these customers. Is hung in the air blocks being built on 3 and 4 Vogtle NPP blocks 2 and 3 on VS NPP Summer in the US, the blocks on the Sanmen Nuclear Power Plant and Saillant NPP in China or customers somehow unscrew - Toshiba is not the problem. Westinghouse won the tender for the construction of reactors AR immediately 6-1000 in India recently? It is also not a question of - let the Indians think of something. Planned projects in the UK? Well, it did not work - who does not happen.
Construction Project Playground Westingouse
Against this background, write, and secretly glad to offer for the problems that can potentially occur in Ukrainian "Energoatom"? Excuse me, but where is the reason for such a guilty pleasure, what benefits Russia in general and in particular by Rosatom starting controlled bankruptcy Westinghouse? Let's try to find per se, if at all available.
Suppose that Toshiba lawyers do not make mistakes that all of them will turn out as planned, and as a result of the sale will be exhibited certainly profitable company with some new fancy name, as was the case with the American enrichment companies which, after passing through "bankruptcy -11 », now called not USEC (US Enrichment Company), a Centrus Energy. Suppose that as a result of the bankruptcy, we will see in front of the company "Successful hara-2017», the proud owner of the plant to produce nuclear fuel, plants for the production of the service equipment for nuclear power plants, and so on. Who can be a buyer of this here, obviously profitable holding? Yes, in fact, any company that has money for such an investment, which storge with Toshiba for the price. But with two small caveats - this company can not be a Russian or Chinese "citizenship." After all, with such a transaction relating to the sale of technologies that are critical to the national security of the State shall belong to the US government "veto". Donald Trump or "Geoenergetiku" or "Regnum" does not read, he now even the word "Russian" fear - poor guy just peck constant reproaches for having even a sign of respect to our country, "big deal" he had overslept. China - the main competitor, there is also no options.
Donald Ivanovich Tramp
So, the most optimistic for the Russian version - Westinghouse will be bought by, moneybags. In this case, it does not change anything at all to Russia. Pressed the Americans to "Energoatom" propihivaya its fuel in nuclear reactors - now they will press the same, but in the wrapper from the Germans, zimbabiytsev or some Congolese. But there is an option and a much more pessimistic. Recall that, until recently, unwritten "big nuclear troika" composed of Westinghouse, AREVA and Rosatom. With the US now clear, the French now are restructuring their nuclear company, helping it thus to avoid bankruptcy. At the same time Rosatom any subversive and sabotage activities against competitors did not take, they are our eyes ruined themselves completely independently. Nothing else to do but to seek the good word about "the dead," a dominant position just goes into the hands of a single company from the "big three", which did not climb into any adventure, and continued to do their own thing, to preserve and multiply glorious heritage Minsredmash times THE USSR. Suit someone, but Russia itself, its dominant position on one of the high-tech market? With the current number of "violent wishers" - a rhetorical question. No, no and no again. Russia may remain without competition? Yes, this idea for bursting sympathy to us Western - like a red rag to a bull! First of all Americans and try to create such a competitor taking advantage of every opportunity.
A possibility exists, even if it is now occupied by the decisions of the problems around the post of its president. Whom are we? Yes, of South Korea, and the company KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corp.), of course. Who does not know that she like, can just look in Wikipedia, there are all very eloquently.
"At the beginning of the year 2010 South Korea won its first export order - four reactors APR-1400 UAE. Head of Power Corporation of the United Arab Emirates said:
"We were impressed with the performance of security world-class team of KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corp.), which has demonstrated the ability to achieve the objectives of the UAE program"
Today, South Korea's nuclear power design among the most efficient and advanced in the world. The reactor has an APR-1400 40 percent to greater installed capacity than previous models, and a variety of new security features. According to South Korean Ministry of Knowledge Economy, the cost of fuel for the APR-1400 to 23 percent lower than for the EPR reactor of the French company Areva, is considered the most advanced reactor in the world. The government also plans to develop new nuclear power plant construction, which will have to 10 percent more power and safety rating better than the APR-1400. NPP South Korea currently operate with the installed capacity factor (capacity factor) 93,4 percent, higher than the capacity factor USA stations (89,9%), France (76,1%) and Japan (59,2%). South Korean nuclear power plants have consistently demonstrated the lowest frequency of outages in the world; this record is largely due to highly standardized design of nuclear power plants and operating procedures. APR-1400 it developed, designed, built and operated in accordance with the latest international regulatory requirements for safety, including safety in the fall of aircraft "
Nuclear reactor APR-1400 (KEPCO, South Korea)
South Korea has its own nuclear engineering, is able to design and build nuclear power plants, developing the reactor project, is entirely consistent with generation III + IAEA standard. Now imagine that KEPCO will be strengthened further and all the assets of Westinghouse. Presented? We are confident that in this case you agreed with our opinion: we see a powerful new rival Rosatom, which we support the fight against all those who dream of "torn to shreds the Russian economy." Koreans can not find the money for such a deal? Name any major US bank - and you will get to a potential lender. In general, a controlled bankruptcy of Westinghouse and the potential sale of the company and the South Koreans have the most pessimistic for the Russian version of the events unfolding around Toshiba. And the most optimistic - No change, the company "Successful hara-2017» continues to produce and deliver fuel to 31% of the market, continues to produce sales and transport equipment, preparing to execute contracts for decontamination of nuclear sites, not allowing to break into these segments Rosatom. Bravura tone Westinghouse information on the bankruptcy reports, in our opinion - just evidence of incomplete understanding of the upcoming event, not more than that.