It just seems that the main purpose of the West's hysteria about the humanitarian situation in Aleppo - unsubstantiated attacks on Russia. The main aim is the same - to put Assad war criminal, which by definition can not be left in power. This is both false and self-hypnosis - without Assad Syrian conflict will inevitably become an endless and hopeless slaughter.
"Humanitarian pause" in eastern Aleppo end sooner or later. And it is now clear that a mass exodus is not only fighters, but civilians can not expect from these areas. Thus, the question of what will happen next, are becoming increasingly important.
The war is now seen in two contexts: either in connection with the existence of LIH * and other jihadists, or in connection with "Assad must go." Moscow and Washington have different visions - one implies the presence of al-Assad of Syria in the power system, the other puts the overthrow of the "bloody dictator" main goal and a prerequisite for the establishment of peace and the liberation of the country from terrorists.
But in fact, this is a strange dispute the obvious choice. With Assad you are left with a chance to unite and pacify the whole of Syria, if not, then a significant part of it. Without Assad Civil War would be a war of annihilation - not subside for a long time, neither is taking.
In the first place - the family
Split into Syrian society where deeper than asadovtsev and antiasadovtsev. And much more ancient. Local outbreak of the Civil War occurred at a frequency of at least once every ten years starting from the time of the Syrian education. From about 1976 years (that is, after the occupation of Syrian troops destroyed the Lebanese civil war) confrontation with the "Muslim Brotherhood" has taken not only lengthy, but particularly acute.
"Brothers" began a campaign of mass murder of high-ranking Alawites, Christians and supporters of the Baath Party, regardless of their religion, bringing the situation in the country to critical. Some of these attacks have become a particularly significant event for the entire Middle East. For example, killing a few dozen students, Alawite military academy in Aleppo (the same for the ruins of the building where the last two months was an epic battle).
Then everything that happened was terrifying. In the capital, Damascus, street fighting was conducted around the elite residential neighborhood of Abu Rumani, where Foreign Minister Abdul Khalim Khaddam and the "eternal" Defense Minister Mustafa Tlas, the closest people to Hafez Assad, lived. The suicide bombers blew up the buildings of the Council of Ministers, Air Force and Air Defense Staff. In Aleppo, about 300 people were killed, and Soviet citizens among advisers and business travelers were killed. One day, a suicide bomber tried to blow up a truck in the so-called Blue House in Damascus, a nine-story residence of a Soviet military adviser and mission members with families. In the basement of the house there was a store of fuel oil, and no one had a chance, but everyone saved the heroism of a simple private soldier from Vologda Alexei Terichev, who was on duty at the checkpoint. At the cost of his life, he stopped the terrorist and was posthumously awarded the "Red Star".
By 1982, several large cities actually controlled the "brothers", and the situation strongly resembled the modern one (at that time the "Muslim Brotherhood" was the analogue of IGIL, their forerunner in ideology and practice). Under the control of the Islamists, Ham passed, which threatened the dismemberment of Syria, the fall of the Hafez Assad regime and the establishment of Islamist power. But the uncle of the current leader of Syria, Rifat Assad, who commanded the so-called defense brigades, wiped Kham from the face of the earth (a week for assault, two weeks for stripping), along with the leaders and the elite of the Muslim Brotherhood. He did not even think of providing any corridors for the civilian population, as now Aleppo. Then it simply was not accepted, and the all-seeing eye of the international community did not follow the situation too closely. Rifat himself in the attacks of narcissism estimated the death toll in Hama at 35 thousand people, but recently declassified CIA estimates are more modest: the order of 2000 corpses, of which up to 600 - the militants of the "brothers", and about 1000 government soldiers.
This uprising of the Islamists was temporarily suppressed, but the "Hama's liberator" Rifat Assad immediately imagined himself the heir of his brother, who was already experiencing health problems, and only a year later he himself raised an uprising in Damascus, and at that time he was subordinated to 55 thousand armed people. He actually seized the capital, but Hafez recovered from the illness and forced the rebellious brother to flee from sight into an "indefinite overseas business trip", in effect - to go into exile. They say that their mother Nasa played a decisive role in such a bloodless outcome of the events, otherwise it would have been much worse - Hafez had a reputation as an unrestrained person (all in his father, Ali Suleiman, who received the nickname al-Assad - "lion", who made his name ). Even in the reports of the Soviet KGB, several negative features of his character were pointed out-primarily a quick temper and a keen interest in European women, which caused a lot of trouble during Hafez's visits to Moscow.
Милосердие, проявленное к дяде нынешнего президента Сирии, аукается стране по сей день. С тех пор Рифат живет в Европе, в основном во Франции и Испании, откуда старательно вредит своему племяннику Башару, считая его своим кровным врагом. В Сирию дядя последний раз приезжал в 1992 году, на похороны матери, но у него достаточно средств не только для высокого уровня жизни, но и для активного участия в политике. В свое время он считался главным коррупционером во всей семье и даже имел личный порт в Латакии, через который десятилетиями шла контрабанда. В 1999 году войскам Башара пришлось брать этот незаконный порт штурмом, одновременно госаппарат был зачищен от сторонников зловредного дяди.
Rifat has not been young for a long time, but his sons actually control much of the very opposition that the Western community calls "moderate." The elder - Ribal Assad - created the so-called Movement for Democracy and Freedom in Syria and directs it, and the youngest Sumer owns a satellite television company in London, which turned into one of the largest propaganda resources for supporting the "moderate", although initially expressed the interests only of the offended part of the clan Asadov. It is with these guys associated and various monitoring groups of "friends of Syria", sitting in London and have become almost the main source of information for Western media on the "atrocities Bashar and Russian aviation."
In all of this Rifat clan - only a small part of the underwater part of an iceberg, which has become a civil war in Syria. Religious opposition has long reached at a stage where none of the parties can not even imagine the possibility of a compromise. Alawites and Christians are fighting a war for survival, and despite the fact that Bashar himself formally joined the Sunni, and all branches of the ruling clan has long linked by kinship with the largest Sunni clans.
The same Rifat, one of his four marriages, is married to a representative of one of the most influential Sunni names (she is also the cousin of the wife of his elder brother Hafez) Anise Raja Barakat. Bashar's wife Asma Ahras also comes from an influential Sunni family, but this marriage was not the result of a "dynastic collusion". She did not even know who she was marrying - Bashar lived in London under a pseudonym and was not considered an aspirant for the "throne." His elder brother Basil was still alive - an unchallenged heir, an icon of style, an officer, a racer, a rider, a favorite not only of Syria, but also of neighboring states, as well as Europe. Even Hafez in the last period of his life was called "Abu Basil" - Basil's father.
However, the alliance of Alawites and Christians with a moderate part of the Sunnis, which has been outlined in recent years, is based not only on the intertwining of clans and tribes. The cannibalistic ideology of jihadists was not brought to Syria five or six years ago, it grew out of the soil that the "Muslim Brotherhood" was fertilized as far back as the 60-70. The Sunni part of Syrian society split precisely in the line of acceptance or non-acceptance of medieval practices, and a part of the population that still applauds Igilov's methods does not fit into a new and necessarily secular Syria (sadly, but it must be pronounced). Between them and secular Sunnis (as well as Alawites, Christians, Shiites and others), there will be a war of destruction, which will not be stopped either by humanitarian operations or by the pressure of the international community. There must be someone left alone.
From your boy we did not expect
Any ideology, including the most cannibalistic, must be perceived by any social group - large enough - to bring the country to disaster. Climate change and destructive extensive economic policy both in Syria itself and in neighboring countries led to a five-year drought of 2006-2011. Now, of course, it's not the Middle Ages that drought led to mass uprisings, but it was this factor that became decisive. Turkey began building a cascade of power plants on the Euphrates, which dehydrated the river in the neighboring country and ruined agriculture in Eastern Syria. The desert began to advance at an unprecedented pace.
Hundreds of thousands of people fled from the eastern districts in large cities, especially in Damascus and Aleppo, as the Soviet peasants during collectivization. Only in 2011, in Aleppo came to 200 thousand people from among the former farmers and herders out of Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and Hama, in fact they are economic refugees in their own country. And that's not counting Palestinians already obzhivshihsya and turned their camp into a cross between a military settlements and a gypsy camp. They need to add thousands of Kurds and Iraqis, not uzhivshihsya with the American occupation government.
Unemployment in a once prosperous country simultaneously jumped to 25% of the number of able-bodied population. Of course, this whole mass of citizens did not become a marginal group of the population, to ignite with slogans of social equality on the basis of "pure Islam" was a matter of time. At the same time, they dispelled hatred in stories about the "traitors" of the Alawites and Christians who "seized power in the country" (the Jews were expelled back in the 50, so it would not be possible to channel the hatred at their expense). By the way, basically this particular group of the population subsequently fled to Europe. To get out of the way and go to nowhere, imposing their presence and demanding privileges and preferences, was familiar to them. Partly, therefore, the new migration of peoples and looked so organized - the experience affected.
As for the secular part of anti-Assad activists, their speeches quickly came to naught. As for the secular in the opposition structure, only those groups that are supported by the Rifat Assad clan and several generals and officials who have changed Bashar at the initial stage of the war remain. Their share is negligible, the demands of liberal reforms and the proclamation of democracy on a Western model have long been lost in a huge jihadist choir. "Moderate" does not control any major settlement and are forced either to associate with jihadists or regularly swear on the Koran that their hatred of Bashar is for religious reasons.
By creating or trying to create lists of "trustworthy" representatives of the armed opposition, the United States proceeds from pure idealism, under which there is no life practice. Secretary of State Kerry was previously an anti-war activist and opposed the war in Vietnam. Even relatively recently, it could forever block any roads to civil service. Now for some reason he is convinced that in Syria there is not a war, but the struggle of democratic good with totalitarian evil - and imposes this concept on humanity. To convince him even with the facts on his hands is impossible - in response, the stories about the sufferings of children, which he saw on the video, which flooded the YouTube structures of the sons of Rifat Assad, begin. And the full picture of what is happening in Syria in the Americans in general in the head does not fit.
To stop this war with a wave of a magic wand is theoretically possible. That is, you can declare a humanitarian break for a couple of days and put on the roads the Russian Marines, the Mukhabarat and the military police on brand new blue motorcycles, as they do in Aleppo. But neither militants nor civilians leave the eastern Aleppo in no hurry. Somebody is hindered by jihadists, someone sincerely does not want or can not. The same situation will be in Rakka and Idlib, when they get to work. Right now, the last representatives of the "an-Nusra" leave the eastern Gutu, they are sent to the brothers by reason in Idlib, and with weapons. And we must understand that the government of Asad shows miracles of humanity for a war in which neither side sees itself as a winner until its opponent is physically destroyed.
Neither civilian nor military authorities of Syria have never broken the word to surrendering militants, though the temptation to shoot this whole fraternity was very great. But at some point, and it stops working. When last summer the first operations on the "resettlement" of militants from the enclave surrounded by Homs caused all negotiators positive attack, it concerned only local opposition. These people are about something agree with the Bashar government, but they did not cut the head and did not trade slaves.
This positive experience is not applicable to the jihadists and their allies, which indeed can be only a war of extermination. Since medieval practices and the ideology of global jihad captured the consciousness of many people, not formally who took up arms, and therefore considered "civilians", which, again, to do with them? Send to a therapist in the rehabilitation program?
From the fact that this question is rhetorical, it does not follow that the war will last forever, and thousands of victims are unavoidable. Bashar Assad over the years has shown himself as a tough and determined man, something that no one expected from him. In many respects, it was the idea of Bashar as a quiet office doctor who did not pretend to big politics (despite his service in the army and the command of a tank battalion), was one of the reasons that provoked the opposition's aggression. He lost much to his older brother in terms of image and was perceived as a weak link. It seemed that it could be "shaken", it was not believed, which contributed to the mass treason on the part of officials and generals at the beginning of the war. People tried to run across to the side that seemed stronger to them.
And now it is Bashar is seen as a strong leader, and it is as a "Syrian" and not representative of any religious group or clan. This gives him a real chance to consolidate if not the entire country, a significant part of it. Assad has shown a willingness to dialogue with the part of society, which opposed it for personal or political reasons, rather than on the basis of religious sectarianism. One evidence of this - the same operation for the production of environment fighters not associated with jihadism and medieval practices.
After fleeing disloyal generals Syrian army demonstrates the amazing solidarity to civil war, but there are strong sentiments, it is usual for a civil war: finish vermin already without taking into account political differences. Nevertheless, with these sentiments is unable to handle the cost of the authority personally Bashar al-Assad, who has always switches the negotiation process on the civil administration.
But the war with the radicals will indeed continue until the end, no matter how it may be reflected in the international situation. The province Idlib has already turned into an independent state under the control of the devil knows who, this problem will have to be solved. Eastern Syria generally sags - you can capture Rakka, go to the Iraqi border, but it will take years to establish order there. Predictions about the new 10 years of war can become a reality if now we refuse to support the government of Bashar and his army in favor of abstract and unconfirmed "humanitarian interests" on the ground. Moreover, in fact, they are not, and there are only ideologems in the heads of some of the Western elites. It is this system of thinking, and not the behavior of Damascus and Moscow, that makes part of the Syrian society hostage to the civil war. Which still retains the chance to become an endless war of extermination.