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The battle for the "capital of IGIL" will be an extremely difficult test for the Americans

The Syrian opposition, with US backing, hastily entered the "capital of IGIL *" - Rakku, seeking to outstrip the pro-government forces of Syria. Overtake Assad - principally for the Americans, as well as to prevent Shiites to control the borders of the ATS. The whole question is whether it will work out. It is possible that the Americans are waiting for an extremely unpleasant surprise.

The fact that in the operation for the liberation of the Syrian city of Rakki from the militants of the IGIL group * are involved units of the US Marine Corps and attack helicopters Apache, Pentagon spokesman Jeff Davis told journalists. According to him, Marines use 155-millimeter howitzer M777 to support the advancing units, and also provide them with communications and fire control systems. At the same time, the opposition alliance "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) has already entered Rakka as part of the operation to liberate the city.

In turn, the US Navy reported that they had inflicted a series of strikes against the targets of IGIL from ships in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The US military has long registered with the Kurds both as military advisers and as "fire support." The American coalition basically does not transfer heavy weapons to its allies, because Israel categorically objects to this. For Tel Aviv in general, it is extremely important that any grouping in Syria does not get long-range artillery or missile systems. Because the American advisers have to drag themselves to the mountains and deserts howitzers and heavy mortars, as well as personally monitor the electronic "serenades" - fire control systems. True, these are just a few notebooks with computational programs that combine into a single volley a variety of artillery and mortar systems so that the projectiles cover the enemy consistently, not letting them raise their heads, rather than falling off with great delays in time.

This science was born in the First World War, but now all this electronics contains many secret codes and characteristics, and in the Pentagon they do not want badly managed Kurds to get this joy for personal use. Otherwise, it remains only to wait for the day when they will master this area of ​​higher mathematics and cybernetics, or they will sell the notebook to the Persians, and this will already be a disaster.

Marines do not climb directly into the battle. They perform a role that is similar to the average between a detachment and a grassroots entertainer. Kurds of any tribe, religion and degree of political engagement are difficult to push for active action outside their "natural range". They constantly need to promise something, pay something, and do their best in every way. Otherwise they will not move from their place. Moreover, Bashar Assad has long restored them to civil rights (with his father the Kurdish population was discriminated against, did not have full citizenship, passports and local government) and promised broad autonomy.

Moreover, according to a number of leaks from Astana, in the projects of the new constitution of Syria proposed by the Russian delegation, the word "Arab" may disappear from the name of the country. That is, the current Syrian Arab Republic - the Syrian Arab Republic - will turn into a Syrian republic. In a multinational state.

In such a situation, US advisers can persuade the Kurds to press on the ethnically and geographically alien to them Rakku mass only unthinkable promises. And still - carefully monitor that they are advancing, and not smoking a hookah on advantageous positions around the city, as it was relatively recently, during the siege of Manbige.

Already, the commander of the operation, Lieutenant-General Steve Townsend acknowledges that "the battles for Raccoon will be long and heavy." At the same time, Americans characterize their participation in the operation as "advice and support" (they traditionally like cumbersome abbreviations and such slogans). However, it is known that they promised the Kurds of the SDF administrative control over the city after its release from IGIL for "order and security" purposes.

Why Kurds need this is not clear. The only reasonable explanation is that they decided to repeat the "focus of Manbage", that is, to seize as much territory as possible with an ethnically alien population, so that in the future, when negotiating the organization of Kurdish autonomy within the framework of the new Syria, bargain with Bashar Assad for every hectare. Therefore, they tolerate impudent and unceremonious American advisers.

We must understand that Kurds of all tribes and religions are extreme nationalists, they are immune to ideological processing in the spirit of "American values ​​of democracy" and tend to use all around to achieve their local goals. The only absolute taboo is cooperation with Turkey, but here also some tribes historically make an exception for themselves. There is also a Kurdish militia in Turkey, fighting against the tribesmen on the side of Ankara.

Syrian government forces are unlikely to have time to approach Rakka faster than the Kurds and Americans. The mere fact of forcing the storming of the city by the American command says that the Pentagon has decided in no case to allow the transition of Rakka to the control of Damascus. However, given the previous experience of storming large cities engaged in IGIL (especially Mosul), we can assume that the operation may take a long time. Strictly speaking, all the same people - Lieutenant-General Steve Townsend and the company - are storming Mosul for almost a year now.

In this regard, we can not fail to mention the American blow against the column of pro-government Shiite forces in Syria in the province of Suweida. In Washington, for some reason, it is believed that the city of At-Tanf - the key to control the province and the Syrian-Jordanian border area - belongs to them or their allies from the SSA. Their helicopters scatter leaflets across the desert since May, in which they do not recommend coming nearer to At-Tanf. Damascus reasonably considers this a violation of Syria's sovereignty.

By the way, the fate of the province of Suweida has not been discussed either in Astana or elsewhere. And there are no agreements on its "division" or creation of "security zones" named after President Trump there. Theoretically, when government forces and Shiite formations unite at Rutba, one can talk about closing the Syrian border - and the US will lose its most important stronghold in the south. And for what on the territory of neighboring Jordan for several years prepared parts of the armed opposition?

It is clear that the penetration of Shiite (that is, obviously pro-Iranian) factions into this region is very painful in the USA and Israel. It's not for nothing that American aviation attacks predominantly Shiite units, which gives an excellent excuse for Iran and the local press to submit the Pentagon's actions as anti-Shiite, that is, religious in nature. And with every American bomb that fell on the part of "Hasd-Shaabi", sympathy for the Persians is growing.

All this fuss is only nominally reminiscent of geostrategic games involving Iran and the pro-Israel lobby in the current US administration, which will provoke attacks on the Shiites to the last, despite the extremely negative PR of such operations for regional consciousness. In fact, the Syrian government troops and their allies will somehow regain control over the province of Suweida and the borders of the country. To prevent this unpleasant turn for Washington, the Americans will have to initiate some diplomatic moves in order to force Damascus into the division of zones of influence in the south of the RA. At this time they have much less time there than in Racco.

The pro-American parts of the SSA are far from being YGIL. When they meet with the 9 tank corps, they can either just run away or start tiresome talks about bus tickets to Idlib - and no CIA politicians will prevent treason. They have already been repeatedly thrown by the same people, moving from side to side. In everyday life with them, indeed, it is more difficult than with the simple-minded and straightforward Kurds in their own way. And it will be very amusing to observe how the Americans will try to cope with this.

A source: LOOK

Author: Eugene Kroutikov

Tags: Syria, Middle East, Politics, USA, Analytics, Kurds, IG, Terrorism