"Sanctions, sanctions" - rushing from all sides. It is they, the damned, are to blame for the fact that the dollar has become too expensive and the standard of living has dropped significantly.
"Whether more will be," - in joyful anticipation rubbing their hands alone.
"We do not care. Sami before kick the bucket "- the other is responsible.
"Sanctions will soon be canceled," - in a hopeless autotrenninge setting yourself officials.
"European business protests. Italy was in favor of the lifting of sanctions "- the media toil.
"Give us import substitution" - appeal policy, however, forget to allocate the money.
If no ernichestva, that almost without exception, from the notebooks of the liberals, bored by Hamon, to adherents of the Soviet Union 2.0 for various reasons, are waiting for not wait, when sanctions are lifted, and life will return to normal. At the same time, and will not soon be canceled, and the life to normal will not come back, and, more importantly, the sanction is the history of the category "would not be a blessing in disguise." And not in the first place because of the prospects of import substitution, which are shrouded in a dense fog. After all the money on him and actually forgot to highlight.
Sanctions are the best thing that happened to Russia in recent years, not counting the return of the Crimea. And that too without ernichestva. Of course, all that is written below, is nothing more than the New Year nonsense author yet.
1. Three-dimensional political space of Russia
First of all, to understand the current situation is worth a close look at the configuration of political forces in Russia. The human brain is so constituted that he basically likes to analyze everything and structure. During the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union invented hundreds of different classifications, which analysts are trying to expand the Russian political class, explaining including ourselves everything that happens the result of confrontation of individual groups and clans. Meanwhile, in most cases, these classifications do not look flat and dimensional. Clans represented a sort of points on a segment of the political spectrum. The real picture is much more complicated. That is why the development of collective solutions often principled opponents on some issues regularly appear on the same side in dealing with others.
Without pretending to be exhaustive or even adequately describe the picture, I would venture yet to give their vision of the situation, the more so for the understanding of the situation with sanctions and often seemingly quite chaotic and inconsistent actions of the authorities, this question is extremely important.
Modern Russian political class can be roughly represented in the form of a three-dimensional space, each dimension is completely independent.
The first dimension is the origin of the capital. Yet even if we live in the wild, but capitalism, where money is an even more powerful tool than the authority. No, if you're an outsider ordinary householder, no "accumulated unsustainable" will not save you. Take away or pomorschatsya. But whether there are basically loners? But if you are a member of a powerful political and economic clan, then you take away something not so easy. In the worst case it happens a exchange or compensation.
By origin of capital the entire Russian elite can be divided into three broad, though heterogeneous group.
The first group are those who I have something for everyone conditionally called "successor". They are those who deliberately destroyed the Soviet Union, about to enter concerted series a narrow host range, "New World Order", and we considered all the economic wealth of the Union as its own heritage, which is going to invest as a share in controlling this NRM community.
The second group is a conditional "young reformers" of the Yeltsin draft, which with the help of the then Clinton administration during the reign of their "patron" able to put together enough capital to force to be reckoned with and take into account. This group, in contrast to the first principle, never cherished geopolitical ambitions and was obviously prepared to act within the existing framework under the watchful but benevolent supervision of "senior comrades" from overseas.
The political power of the first group, which was lost after the shooting of the "White House" in 93-m, returned with the arrival of Putin in 99-m, but the power of the second group to the point already made to be reckoned with. Putin did not then hold a large-scale redistribution of property and the weaning of the second group of capital, limiting all the memorable "equidistance" oligarchs and exponential flogging Khodorkovsky. Which, by the way, suffered not only, and perhaps not so much for his soaring political ambitions, many of the basic betrayal. As one of the "oligarchical appointees" of the first group during the reign of the second, he is not just gone over to her side, but generally went beyond the boxes, having gone under the wing of the Rothschild family.
The third group emerged after the "reign" of Putin. It's officials. At its core estate, to which Putin was forced to lean on, restoring power after the resignation of the first group and the second "equidistant oligarchs." Part of the rules of "Games" was right "feeding" from the post than pleased so generous gift and more recently humiliated bureaucratic class was not slow to take advantage. Over the past decade and a half, this third group also accumulated enough capital to become noticeable in the sum of the political and business hillside Russia. At its core, it is the least homogeneous and consolidated of all, however, in the event of a serious threat to imagine it as a group, for example in the case of the assassination of the central government on their money or power, is able to act doastatochno consolidated because of the similarity of interests. In the political and geopolitical sense, the more personal the group itself is not. Her interests mainly focused on issues of political stability and the absence of the threat of "dispossession".
The second dimension of the Russian political landscape of a traditional political orientation. Sometimes this measurement is called the "Tower of the Kremlin," which four. Proponents of socialism, state capitalism adherents, supporters of equal public-private partnership, and Western-style liberals.
In principle, any details concerning a given classification is not required. Everything is clear from the names of the groups. It is based on an ideal image of a desired future for Russia in terms of the ideological structure of society.
Third, often underestimated in terms of influence on the decisions taken, the measurement of a regional geopolitical orientation. Accordingly Eastern - partnership with Asian countries against the West and Western - the entry in the "happy family" of Western civilization. Moreover, this division is not some years from the time when the media started talking about the friendship with China to counterbalance the United States. This is an old political tradition since the days of the Russian Empire. To give just one example. In addition to the well-known English on the side of the Japanese in the Russian-Japanese war 1904-year was active and so-called "South Russian group" behind all acts of sabotage and terror on the part of the Socialists. Moreover, the real motives behind such a seemingly betrayed the motherland behavior adherents of this group were not as anti-Russian. Russian Empire because of its traditional poverty (compared to Europe) could never pull two simultaneous global development project. The "South Russian group" had its own project - the regional development of Russia in the south through Turkey and Palestine. This project was not only to approve Russia's influence in the Mediterranean and ensure control of traffic through the Suez Canal. He opened for Russian development prospects of Africa and the country's participation in the colonial section of the continent. Both project (South and East) Russia has not pulled either economically or financially. And for the development of the southern project to refocus efforts on a group of state took the defeat of Russia in the Russian-Japanese war.
Today, a lot of geopolitical values of a century ago lost their meaning, but Russia is still not able to simultaneously develop two global projects. And she again have to choose between western and eastern orientation in its geopolitics.
2. Between the devil and the deep sea
As strange as it may seem, if you assess the situation according to our media, Russia's choice in favor of the East and West is still quite obvious. Especially in the political class. Even under perfect growing openly anti-Western sentiment in Russian society and even in the state media, working from an entirely different meaning, different political clans Russia still sees the future prospects in close cooperation with the West it is. Yes, really radically different motives.
Liberal "tower" of the Kremlin genuinely perplexed how Russia is able to fully confront the West economically and politically, therefore, considers the current situation of confrontation as a sad misunderstanding that all possible means as soon as possible to stop and return to the mainstream of relatively independent, but nevertheless a pro-Western politicians. It is best to position the group voiced by former Finance Minister Kudrin and expressed the immortal phrase "Katz offers to surrender." Motives and attitudes of this group only touchdown. It is urgent to play it back until spring 14-year. Return Khokhlov Crimea, but the bargain is currently the maximum guarantee for the future, and roll back the entire sanctions policy of the West. The inevitable surge of protest in Russia for such developments planned to arrest the external manifestations of favorable changes in the domestic economic situation - a sharp appreciation of the ruble, the restoration of abundance on the shelves, increase of salaries and pensions. Generally this position is shared by representatives of the group of Yeltsin's "young reformers", which was originally due to the West were born, and only through the support of which still exist.
But it would be a mistake to think that supporters of pro-Western orientation consist only of notebooks liberals. Not a bit less than them, and among the "successor". Especially those whose clans of the money taken out of the Soviet Union was in a westerly direction. Today, most of the capital was in danger because of the sanctions and careful monitoring of the relevant services of the United States all major transactions related to Russia, or companies, including offshore companies whose owners are or may potentially be Russian officials or businessmen. But capital is sacred. But the plan of action of this group, unlike the Liberals completely different. It is necessary to maximize pressure on the West, including the threat of military confrontation. Once in 99-m, this blackmail has worked and has led to a significant reduction in the pressure on Russia, made the West largely come back to pre-existing agreements reached before the collapse of the Soviet Union. And if the plan worked once, nothing prevents him from work as effectively and for the second time. If Russia show firmness and determination to go all the way, without fear of an escalation of tensions, the West necessarily spineless retreat, sanctions will be lifted, and the situation will return to relatively safe "zero".
These two main groups of supporters of the restoration of the "partnership" relations with the West and joins the majority of Russian officials. All their "accumulated unsustainable" state traditionally stockpiled it in Western banks and real estate west. Their children are learning or studying until the last moment in the West, and they used to spend their holidays on the coast of the European Riviera. If sanctions are tight, and God forbid, effort, these officials may lose virtually all of their capital. And to save the new conditions in the ever increasingly stringent monitoring will be virtually impossible.
Supporters of Western orientation is opposed to perhaps fewer in number, but quite powerful "Eastern group." And this is not some state officials. Here, the liberals, whose business is concentrated in the same China, and those more than in Europe or the United States. And "Heirs", the direction of withdrawal of funds from the Soviet Union which was carried out in an easterly direction. And the "Trans-Ural" regional-ranking elite that their capital unlike colleagues from the central regions are largely concentrated in the Bank of Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. But most importantly, on the east side of the group and the results of the long-term geopolitical analysis, show strong shift in economic and political activity in the world in the Pacific.
As a result, Russia's policy at present is somewhat irresponsible and frankly weak. We rush between East and West, trying to preserve the relative independence in decision making, but at the same time on both sides is the apparent sense of mistrust and as a consequence of the deterioration of negotiating conditions. But the most important thing is that both the US and China, say such behavior is weak, increasing the pressure. And this pressure will continue to rise until at least until Russia will not make your final choice.
3. Cause and effect
When the advocates of a speedy restoration of relations with the West, but those who wait on the lifting of sanctions, think that the sanctions is a consequence of too independent policy of Russia, or even more so the return of the Crimea, and hope that good will or opposing force pressure it is possible to return the situation to the pre-crisis level, they really confuse cause and effect. Sanctions against Russia, as well as our counter-sanctions against the West, this is not the result of "improper" behavior of Russia in the world. How and where this behavior is not the cause of the differences and the growing hostility in the relationship. The real reasons are two and both are very different.
The first and most important reason for the sharp deterioration in relations with the West is the objective problems of the world economy that has reached the limit of their strength. This has already happened when the collapse of the USSR at the cost of the complete destruction of the country's industry, mass larceny (let's call a spade a spade), natural resources and financial resources has delayed the global collapse of the world economy for two decades. Today, this delay has completely expired. Moreover, the chaos, the plantations in numerous regions of the planet, too exhausted the possibilities of preserving the Western economy from failure. Many do not want to see, but it's true. And the West quite naturally decided to repeat once a very successful idea. Only now we have had to break up Russia. Not casually slip in our media, and in RuNet so do constantly flashing all sorts of plans and scenarios for the collapse of Russia. Even published forecast maps dividing the country into separate enclaves. In fiction literature is full of books on the subject. Regional elites constantly blown into the ears of the thought of the possible greatness as the home of independent "states" and pouring generous promises on "Foreigners will help us." The region's population is literally hammered hammered the idea that "Moscow was to blame." That is, the attack goes in all directions. We were lucky in one. Epic failure of the West to the Ukraine and the real situation in the once prosperous country great show and "who to blame" and the results of the "revolution", and in reality "helps overseas."
By and large, if Russia, as the same "Katz" does not give up, then the West would inevitably have for the very near future will have to start very hard to transform itself. The effect of these changes will eclipse that Russia experienced in 90-e. And here we come to the second objective reason that the sanctions are not just introduced and operate, but will not be eliminated in the foreseeable future. In any case, after six months of this just does not happen. For all their negative consequences not only for ours but also for the Western economy.
The second reason is that the existing in the world today a global liberal economic model is no longer able to sustain itself. For a variety of objective and interrelated causes. The high social burden, the surplus population, a sharp decline in performance, the inability to extensive development, to achieve the limit of effective demand. That is an objective world stands on the threshold of a significant reduction in the standard of living in almost all countries. And the more the standard of living is today, so it will be more dramatic fall in the near future. But suffer from all this people are not just people, but also the electorate. That is, it inevitably creates a clear dissatisfaction with the existing political elite threat. And for the relief of this threat is urgently needed dreadful and terrible enemy, the machinations of which can be attributed any problems. And here is a great opportunity to sanctions poke a finger at the enemy.
For Russia, it is the West, who introduced brazen discriminatory economic sanctions that caused the collapse of the ruble that forced employers to fire workers or lower their salaries, and officials to tighten the screws, to freeze the increase of pensions and take other unpopular decisions. This Islamic terrorists to shoot down our aircraft are safe and do not give the possibility to warm their bellies in the resorts of Turkey and Egypt.
But for the West this great enemy becomes Russian. It rattles the saber and she brazenly "capture" foreign territory. That she does not give a damn to merge Europe and Ukraine in delightful ecstasy of unity. She's blackmailing Europe supplies or non-delivery of energy. She's their operation in Syria, causing thousands of refugee flows to Europe, which the unfortunate Europeans have to share the last piece of bread. That it is not clear why should introduce retaliatory sanctions against "innocent" of Europe, causing tightening its belt peaceful burghers and businessmen urgently with huge losses of capital withdrawal from Russia under the threat of expropriation.
And what is the result? But in the end, "the citizens of Baghdad can sleep peacefully." And they, and our government is firmly blyudut national interests and promptly give a fitting rebuff adversary. Yes, I have to endure and suffer, but otherwise it would be much worse.
With China, too, everything is not as represented in our media. He is not prepared just to plow our friendly hug, nor sharpening his teeth on our Siberia by traditional liberal notions of horror. China is simply extremely pragmatic. He certainly is interested in close cooperation with Russia on a variety of directions. And energy is not the most important. First of all, China is interested in the power cover-up in the event of an open confrontation with the United States, which is becoming increasingly inevitable if China has not expressed a desire to be just a colonial appendage of America. He is interested in economic cooperation, but the scale of our economy does not allow us to speak of parity in this area. China sees great our weakness, China sees our great throwing between him and West, making quite frankly begins to press to their advantage. And the more the West pushes, the more pressing and China.
4. The positive effect of sanctions, beating all the inconveniences
Nevertheless, sanctions against Russia is an exceptional gift that carries the only benefit for Russia. And benefit from a variety of directions.
Firstly, it is described above propaganda effect. In addition to the perfectly natural manipulation of public opinion, it actually leads to greater consolidation of the Russian society and focus on independence in solving problems. And without assuming full responsibility for the success of an event can not be in principle. An example of the inverse approach shows great today Ukraine, which is already two years after the coup managed to almost drown in the swamp and destroy their own economy, but blames happening "klyatyh Muscovites."
Second, sanctions any, it realized the threat. That is the product shot, after which a weapon is discharged. All kinds of current sanctions disrupt Russia's ties with the West. And along with links breaks and Russia's dependence on the West. No funding survived. Yes, the ruble fell, imports fell, but the catastrophe did not happen. Even though import substitution and timid steps due to lack of money, but still shows some "green shoots". And let's extrapolate current trends into the future. Imagine a full economic divide Russia and the West. The result? Russia will survive. Even today, even in respect of imports of the West achieved only that its own products are not in demand, also lost its role as an intermediary in the supply of goods from third countries. Today, the same meat in Russia comes from Argentina, although I came from Europe. Instead of hydroponic vegetables from Holland are from North Africa. But our energy from the same Europe is much more difficult to give up. And they can, take the same China. Who lost as a result? And who lost to the fact that our money was dangerous to store in western banks? They are much more Now will remain in Russia, gradually saturating our economy. If all be summarized, in economic terms, in the short term it is bad and it is difficult for everyone. And in the long term Russia becomes stronger, and the West is weakening. And it's not us to him, and he to us sooner or later with an outstretched hand. Ridiculous? We'll see.
Third, sanctions, oddly enough very beneficial effect on the internal political situation in Russia. For a long time, Putin voluntarily or involuntarily, but in fact played the role of balancer and supreme arbiter between the various interest groups. His actions were constrained by the need to constantly maintain a balance between different clans and groups, because only this balance could ensure its own power, and the country a semblance of stability. But now the situation is changing rapidly. Almost all elite groups today were cut off from most of its foreign assets. No, they had not been taken away or appropriated. But to take advantage of them without serious risk of running into a freezing practically impossible. And these assets are concentrated most of the power elite clans. Assets of the immediate environment of Putin, too, were in the same condition. However, unlike all the others under his direct control is the majority of assets in the country. That is, there was a sharp weakening of all the clans in the background automatically strengthen the real powers of the president. And this is probably the first time it creates the possibility of active political action in the country. The ability to develop a clear direction of development of the country without regard to the various clan and group interests. Whether he will take advantage of this opportunity or not, I do not know, but will soon see. For some time you can make a prediction that he was going.
As for the above-mentioned fluctuations in Russian politics between East and West, in spite of the obvious benefits of any suspension of the selection is for all temporary difficulties can bring the maximum dividends. For this we need only withstand the current bilateral pressure and he did not succumb. For a time in the conditions of existing sanctions Russia will continue to intensify. And together with the strengthening of Russia will increase and the need for it on the part of our "partners". It looks more meaningful in the long term alliance with China, but it does go through it and get the excess pressure to agree on an equal partnership. Moreover, in contrast to Russia, China has no real alternative to a favorable resistance to the West. And only works for us.