Between 12.02.2016 to 18.02.2016 (after the Munich conference and to the conference in Geneva 25.02.2016) occurs strikes 1,2,3,4 CAA and Syrian Kurds (they got an office in Moscow, maybe it's just the beginning of broader agreements with the Kurds in Syria, and Turkey (visit Demirtaş?) to cut Turkey from Syria.
Perhaps with №5,6 blows (supplement 3,4) or only 3,4 strikes (if only to make it (without 1 and 2), the Turkey gets room for the introduction of troops and the creation of the so-desired areas for refugees.
After the Turkish invasion in Syria, Russia will restrain Turkish airstrikes using air defense (from Latakia - FORT 300, 400-C, Kuveyrisa (BUK or equivalent) from an airbase Qamishli (beech, etc.) and fire intermittently from the arts and hail. Turkish ground forces.
Here the most important thing, our missiles are not the first to have flown to Turkey. Turkey must first log on to the territory of Syria, but not far.
In this case we say that Turkey "aggressor" (they are already there), but in this case, Russia can intervene contingent forces in Syria (for the purpose of self-defense of this contingent). In the case of the death of Russian soldiers, Russian demonstrative begins military preparations to provoke NATO and prevent its performance on the side of Turkey.
NATO going, but does not dare to act on st.5 Charter on the Turkish side, because she is the beginning of (the United States, Eastern and Northern part of Europe for intervention, Western and Southern Europe - against)
Later begins the escalation of the conflict.
1. RF "knocks" the Turkish aviation
- Syria (that flies with Inzhirlika)
- From the territory of Armenia (that is flying to Diyarbakir). Armenia on the Army base is covered military forces from the territory of the Russian Iskander (knowingly supplied them YUVO in 2015). 500 km just enough to peck through the airspace of Azerbaijan
2. Explains Azebraydzhanu, it is not necessary to intervene on the side of the Turks because
- There NKR -1y front
- Behind Caspian and Astrakhan - 2-th front.
It is explained that in the case of intervention we consume, oil and gas pipelines that go to Georgia and Turkey via the ACS, Iskander, caliber and other things.
It is also a blow to the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. And the results of all investments in the economy in recent years 25 - zero. At current oil prices, no one in Azerbaijan will not invest. Azerbaijan is again at the beginning of 1990-x.
3. On the Black Sea, all controlled from the Crimea. And the sea (Ramparts) and air C-300, aviation.
4. . At the same time, with No. 1 begins massive swotting for Turkey caliber (from the Caspian Sea via Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan (in the volley to 32 missiles) and the Black Sea (from the submarine "Rostov" - up to 24 missiles) and cruise missiles with strategic bombers (up to 500 rockets).
5. To intervene on the side of Turkey, Saudi Arabia shaken
- Due to displacement of the Caliphate of Syria and Iraq (al-Assad, the Kurds and the Shiites of Iraq squeeze "black" to the south)
- The war in Yemen (Iran strengthens the delivery and support Huthis)
As a result, almost everything goes according to plan, the US GME restructuring.
Turkey was defeated and lost territory in favor of Kurdistan and Armenia. Perhaps Kurdistan and Armenia are receiving access to the Black Sea (This is the second "carrot" for which Armenia is entering the war on the side of the Russian Federation, the first - return on territtory Erzurum the world (including Mount Ararat).
It achieved a long-standing goal - to completely destroy Turkey as a military threat from the south.
Creates Kurdistan - for GME plan.
Armenia is our ally and receives reinforcement. Plus Georgia cut off from Turkey due to Turkey. And Russia gets more influence on Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Kurdistan is created by Syria, Turkey and Iraq. We have, at least, the effect of parity with the United States.
Our intervention should lead to the following positive results for us:
Preventing the creation of "Greater Lebanon" by GME restructuring plan. In its place is formed Alawite Syria (plus friends, ismality Christians) that securely closes the Eastern Mediterranean coast (placed on the control of possible ways of transportation of hydrocarbons from Israel to the south, to cut down Turkey in the north)
Preventing the creation of "Sunnistana" at the expense of the territory of Syria and Iraq.
The maximum number of Sunni scrubbed south to Saudi Arabia and possibly Turkey (?).
Destruction of Saudi Arabia as a whole.
The desert becomes a place of war, the Sunnis.
Eastern Province SA with Shiite population is either independent, or moving away to Iraq.
Thus, we get the following "buns"
1. Weakened, if not destroyed, Turkey has no control over the straits. Will it have to put them under Russian control - the big question.
2. Controlled Georgia and Azerbaijan
3. Strong Armenia
4. Federal Syria
5. More or less allied Iraq, Kurdistan, Iran (he becomes a full-fledged regional leader)
6. Destruction of the SA as a leading oil producer.
7. With respect to the created Kurdistan - important nedopustit its access to the Mediterranean Sea. Only the Black (especially if the RF gain control over the Straits)
8. We are creating a regional economic zone: the Russian Federation, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, New Russia (where events are not considered), Belarus, Central Asia, Iran, Iraq, Kurdistan, Syria, possibly Turkey.
9. Europe, or come into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and finally goes to the American economic zone (for "ideological soorazheniyam"), or enters into a regional economic zone (Economic soobrazheniyam- we at least control the supply of our hydrocarbons, and the Middle East)
And do not say that NATO will intervene and will be with us to fight. Europe can impose economic sanctions. they will not fight. There will be much to shout, stomp their feet, doing scary snouts, may even "skirt" dressed like after Cologne. In this war, we do not take them a threat to their physical destruction (as they thought in 2-st world war and cold), and the forces and means they do not have (in the first place - "okayanstva" will not suffice). No nuclear war starts (neither the US nor France-England).
It will be just a new edition of the Great Game, rather than World War I, which is in danger of becoming the latest.