The American economy - a war economy. Which can develop only in conditions of war. Preferably outside the United States. But the first big American War was a war on its territory - civil.
And the reasons for this war was simple: in the north-east of the country all the conditions for the development of a powerful industry - Appalachian coal basin (current Rust Belt), but the southern agricultural states bоmost of the cotton, tobacco, sugar and rice sold in Europe, and in the same place, the European industrial goods and equipment were loaded on the way back in the holds. And only the loss of the war forced the southerners go toimport substitution. Civil war has given new connection release states a powerful economic impetus that lasted right up to the beginning of 20-century (railways and the Wild West would have been impossible without victory "over the separatist").
And then again, "Kondratieff cycles": Depression 1907 years - World - The Great Depression 1929 years - World - Middle East wars and finally: the end of the history of gold and the dollar offensive petrodollar era.
United States of America, in principle, can not exist without wars.Despite the fact that the country has the highest level of technology in virtually all sectors of the economy - from high-yield agriculture to aviation, aerospace and computer technologies -the main export product in the US is the export of capital, technology / license and sale of its (subsidized the world!), the domestic market for foreign companies. And what is most paradoxical, this picture is happy with the whole world ( "pay tribute to America"), except the United States.
For China, globalization - like manna from heaven. Germany-Europe is certainly better than the Thirty Years War in the same continent with short periods of recovery before the next new war. Japan and without any options: in addition to factories and hardworking Japanese anything of his own hands no more: raw materials, energy and distribution of its products - it's all in the markets, which controls the Uncle Sam.Even Russia, this situation is quite happy. We joined the WTO, we do not come out of the international organizations, which we are building the goat's face - the IOC, WADA, PACE, OSCE, and even levozaschitnye geyrovidenie - everywhere we have kept his membership ...Only America nostalgically recalls the times when they made 8 million vehicles a year, while the rest of the world just 2 million (1950 year).
These times will never return. And the world will never break into closed technological areas. For 100 days of his presidency, Donald Trump was already convinced that manage globalized world is almost impossible. And there is no roll-call of the world government, the members of which the White House and the State Department may push to make capital flee again in America, as in the Second World War.
America has always saved only war. If you leave everything as it is, the whole world will squeeze out of the remaining American jobs in the industry and become a hegemon in Ukraine most ... only this time with a different geopolitical status - something like Brazil, or even lower. And certainly lower than in Russia, because Russia in this case, increases sharply, and selects by itself the whole of Europe and its relations with China and South-East Asia ( "Mongol Empire" - it will not nomadic pastoralists - it's a big Eurasian union of peoples. ..).
So America needs a war. But this, to America after it kept its existence.This Means War against Russia and China, there is no right.
Fresh option: a war against the DPRK.It is a war against South Korea as the main victims of this war, and against Japan, as the accomplice of the hegemon, and against China, which all to disentangle. And perhaps against Russia - at a tangent. Is such a war on the US initiative? - No, it is not possible. Because the US and the UK will lose and Japan as their allies-vassals in its "underbelly" of the Pacific. In this war, a nuclear China declares war on Japan nuclear-free, which is the next day surrendered to the conditions of China (and why Japan is not a member of NATO? ..).
Where else can America make a big war, that it at least as it will help? -Iran... Let's say that Trump and his generals have lost his head and attacked a country that borders on the Caspian Sea with Russia and on the land with the USSR on both sides of the Caspian Sea. The very next day after this aggression, the war in Vietnam, America may seem a pleasure trip. Then you can not continue.
The war in Europe? - Who and with whom? - If Europe and Russia, it 3-I real (not cold) World ...
Ukraine? - disgusting even longer on this subject.
So where is the war is possible for the good of America? ...
American (or Anglo-Saxon, if you want), so enthusiastic about the creation of a global, managed from one center of the world, their dream became a reality.They had in that at all costs to preserve the Soviet Union and the socialist campAs yin and yang. And only in this confrontation with us, they would retain its dominant role in the world, including over by the Soviet Union (little wheat would sell him for gold and iPhones, and even sometimes allowed to conduct the Olympic Games). But greed and stupidity go hand in hand.
Now Russia has become a full-fledged player in the international arena, including in the global economy. Our actions are growing all the time, while the Americans have another "Kondratiev cycle" on their noses. How to start - with the civil war - and finish: and in my opinion, which I already argued enough in my articles, the United States will disintegrate according to the scenario of another military economy - the USSR. True, we fought exclusively from defense, that is, with an external aggressor. And many of our territorial acquisitions were just related to our security (but that's another topic) ...