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19.04.2017 - 08: 29

Britain set for an easy choice

Last time it was in 1924, when elections in three key European countries were in the same year. This was not supposed to be this year - the next elections were planned in Germany and France. But Tereza Mey reneged and now the UK are waiting for early parliamentary elections. What does this mean for the UK, Europe and Russia?

British Prime Minister Tereza Mey is working since last July. And would remain in his seat until at least 2020-th, when they had to go through the next parliamentary elections. By this time, however, Mae had to do a great and complex work - to bring his country out of the European Union. Without losing Scotland, which wants to use Brekzitom for the dissolution of the union with England. And for all this, she had a shaky majority in number of votes in the House of Commons - 331 from 650 deputies.

Late last month, Mei officially launched the country's exit procedure of the EU, and on Tuesday suddenly announced early parliamentary elections. Need for the dissolution of two-thirds majority, but the opposition Labor Party supported the Conservatives. Thus, already 8 of June in the UK will be held early parliamentary elections - something from which Mei refused all nine months of his premiership.

Changing its position it announced opposition to the machinations - is not given, they say, work on Brekzitom:

"The whole country is moving in one direction, but not Westminster (Parliament - Take a look.). Labor Party threatened to vote against the decision (to withdraw from the EU), the Liberal Democrats said they wanted to have the government business into a dead end, the members of the House of Lords have vowed to resist our every step. "

But Mei is cunning - after all it is clear what prompted her to decide on the dissolution of the parliament. These polls are more than flattering for her personally, and, more importantly, for her party. According to the latest YouGov / Times poll, for conservatives are ready to vote 44 percent, while for Labor only 25. The data of other studies also give the advantage of the Mei party. Two years ago, the conservative party won 37 percent against Labor against 30, today this gap will be higher. And thanks to the majority system (the whole parliament is elected in single-mandate constituencies, not according to party lists), May's party can get substantially more votes in the House of Commons. And it is much more confident to carry out both Brakes and bargaining with Scotland.

Li Mei risks? No, unlike his predecessor, David Cameron, decided to hold a referendum on Brekzite to take the lead, to bring down a wave of discontent with the EU - and the loser. Cameron campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU, and a smaller part of his party, for example Boris Dzhonson, called for the exit. As a result, Prime Minister has lost the referendum and resigned.

May did not advocate an exit from the EU. But, having headed the government, announced its intention to unconditionally fulfill the will of the referendum, and to make a way out of the EU in a tough, that is full version. Given that the mood in favor of getting out of the people has not weakened, now May actually holds the second referendum on Brexite. But only this time the conservatives under her leadership advocate the country's withdrawal from the European Union. In these conditions, they have virtually no chance of losing. Not so much because they are so popular, but because the opposition will be forced to campaign for an unpopular European Union. And she has enough problems without it.

Labor Party storm - its elite never accepted Jeremy Corbyn, suddenly became the leader of the party after its defeat in the elections 2015 years. Corbin is not just too radical for the party establishment, but too soft for the British political scene, so was not able to catch the mass of voters.

As a result, Labor's rating is now at its lowest level since 1983 years - and how the party will emerge from the crisis, it is unclear. 25 percent of voters - are too small to rely on revenge. In addition, the Labor Party lost almost Scotland, traditionally which gave them a few dozen seats in parliament. In past elections, the Scottish National Party, serving a separatist position, won all counties in the region. Now repeat the same situation.

After the victory, Teresa May will be able to lead the UK until 2022. She will not only be able to complete the Breccet, but also try to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom. Now, the Prime Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, insists that the new referendum on independence should pass before the completion of the Brexit procedure, that is, until the end of the spring of 2019, and London opposes, suggesting that the divorce with the European Union be concluded first. Having won elections, the conservative party will get more confident positions on trade with Scotland. It is important for London to delay the Scottish referendum until the time when the dissatisfaction of the Scots with Breckzit begins to diminish.

Personally for May elections will be won an important victory - they will strengthen its position as a leader in the party and as prime minister. UK election will have an impact on the European situation - a new government Mai will surely behave in negotiations with the European Union. The only question is, with whom she has to deal with. The winner of the French elections will be known 8 of May, a month before the vote in the UK. So far, everything is going to ensure that the fight in the second round will be between Emmanuel Macron, and Marine Le Pen.

Macron came to London for a meeting with Mai and Le Pen visited Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin - and it accurately reflects the geopolitical views of the two favorites of the French elections. Atlanticist Macron has promised Mae Brekzit fair, and this is exactly what is needed to London in a dispute with Berlin, we are going to recover from the British round sum for an escape from the German ship.

However, in some respects, London can suit even the victory of Le Pen. If after that, relations with the European Union will be in Paris konfiktnymi, Britain can count on further loosening of the EU and, as a result, the lighter the conditions of his release.

And in Germany Mae will wait for the fall, when the elections to the Bundestag will determine the winner. Angela Merkel's chances to retain the seat of Chancellor appear to be minor, so in October in the triangle France-Germany-UK will develop an amazing situation.

Tereza Mey, whose premiership experience by that time will be equal to 15 months, will be the most experienced of the leaders of the three countries - against the backdrop of the Makron or Le Pen in Paris, Martina Shultsa in Berlin. If we remember even a novice Donald Trump, the situation is somewhat reminiscent of the beginning 80-x.

Then, too, the British Prime Minister has suddenly become the most-most - although she was practically a novice at the helm. In the 1979-m Margaret Thatcher became prime minister in January 1981-first entered the White House, Ronald Reagan, in May of the same year became a master of the Elysee Palace Fransua Mitteran, and October 1982-th German Chancellor Helmut Kohl became. So for three years we have changed the leadership of all four major countries of the West - and Thatcher was the most experienced leader. Unlikely to be able to repeat May 11-year rule of Thatcher - but so far that it creates a good basis for this.

The situation with the guiding frame start 80-x is one, but a fundamental difference from the present one. Then, the same fall 1982-th, Leonid Brezhnev died, and in Moscow, are able to fierce confrontation with the West, an era of rapid change of rulers: in the Kremlin had four host in less than three years. The latter proved to Mikhail Gorbachev, as much an inexperienced player in the geopolitical chess, and how far away.

Now the situation is different - we have the most experienced and successful player in the global arena. Part of which is the British party.

A source: LOOK

Author: Peter Akopov

Tags: Great Britain, Tereza Mey, Politics, Election, Parliament, Analytics, Brexit, Europe, France, Germany