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The future of the labor market: after 2020

The future of the labor market: after 2020

28.02.2018
Tags: Work, Economics, Analytics

How will the world labor market and labor relations on the planet develop in the next 20-30 years? To answer this question, we analyzed more than 150 forecasts published by various research groups and consulting centers. As follows from the forecasts of futurists, economists and political scientists, by the middle of the 21st century the current state of the world and of mankind will change quite appreciably. Many predict a dull picture - almost all the work will be done by robots, and the majority of the population will have nothing left but to live on benefits (23, 50, 71, 85, 139, 151). This can threaten a variety of problems and conflicts of a social and military nature, as well as the struggle with the robots themselves, the battle for resources, the use of birth control mechanisms and the segregation of different categories of people [50, 104].

But there is another concept, which, in fact, offers the next step in the history of human progress. According to it, we are waiting for the "golden age" coming due to the infinitely high productivity of robots, the tax redistribution of super profits and the introduction of an unconditional base income [47, 49, 81, 87].

It is interesting that the origins of these paintings are the same, and the beginning has been laid now. Today, robots and artificial intelligence (AI) perform only a small part of the work in some industries, but many agree that the pace of automation will only grow and lead to the washing away of some people from the market.

And first of all robots and AI will be replaced by specialties that are regulated and easily algorithmized, including sellers, drivers, operators, call center employees, lawyers and economists [2, 15, 91]. And demanded will remain "complex" professions, where artificial intelligence can not yet replace people (scientists, top managers, cultural figures, top IT specialists, doctors of the highest category, etc.), as well as "simple professions", where the work is algorithmized little or the replacement of workers by "conventional robots" is economically inexpedient (nurses, nannies, social workers, etc.) [92, 116]. Repression will devalue the cost of labor and lead to an increase in technological unemployment. As a result, in the labor market and in the economy, the polarization of jobs and the washing out of the middle class will be accelerating [70, 93, 114, 155]. Labor incomes will decrease, and the income from capital (for its owners) will grow. And then, depending on the decisions taken by governments or intergovernmental organizations, humanity will either follow the path of property stratification, or turn to the idea of ​​universal income.

Simultaneously with the release of jobs, new jobs will appear, including those related to cognitive technologies and algorithmic processes - IT specialists, machine learning, Big Data, robotics, etc. [113, 115]. Depending on whether measures are taken in time to save jobs or create "new employment", job cuts will or may not be compensated by this "new employment". At best, all reduced jobs can be replaced by new professions, at worst - no more than half. However, with proper training, robotization will even lead to increased employment and wages, stimulating the demand for highly skilled labor [9, 163, 165].

The functions of HR services will also change - those will begin a purposeful struggle for talents; perhaps, tracing and development of abilities will begin with school and even preschool ages. The enterprises themselves will not only consume human capital, but also actively invest in its development. The main asset will be human capital, and the core of motivation - social factors and the employer's brand. However, some scenarios assume that in 10-20 years HR function in its current form will disappear or significantly narrow: it will gradually be replaced by automation, outsourcing and self-organizing teams [78].

Experts note that the forms of attracting and motivating staff will become more flexible and diverse. Based on existing trends, researchers predict rapid growth in the labor market of remote work, freelancing, self-employment, outsourcing, temporary project teams [21, 24, 123].

The education system will be tightened for the demands of companies and the general challenges of the labor market. In general, all will have to learn new things - those professions that will be preserved will be seriously changed, even representatives of working specialties will have to constantly raise the level of knowledge. The usual practice will be continuous education - "lifelong leaning" - training and re-education throughout life [35, 80].

The education system as a whole will be revised and, perhaps, re-created, as an option - in a single universal educational space. The educational process will become more flexible and individualized, the online and mixed forms of learning will be further developed [3, 76, 150]. Scientists say that 2 / 3 of current first-graders will work in professions that currently do not exist [19]. The main thing, again, is to notice the process in time and get involved in the course of not even the renewal of education, but the creation of fundamentally new systems.

Idea: Sergey Nikulin, Andrey Mochenov

Text: Andrey Mochenov, Vera Fedulova


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164. Asia's youth must be taught skills to keep up with technology, experts say // Louise Moon, South China Morning Post (scmp.com), 17.01.2018

165. Reworking the Revolution // Ellyn Shook and Mark Knickrehm, Accenture.com, Jan 2018

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