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13.09.2017

The future world order

To impose political systems, cultural and human values ​​to the West becomes more difficult.

A few days ago a group of bright and unorthodox scientists from Russia and the West spoke at the seminar. The theme of my speech is "What after the" liberal world order? "I think the topic is interesting for the general reader.

Russia is accused of being the destroyer of the post-war liberal world order. This is a multi-story untruth. After the war, there were two world order. One is a liberal-democratic and capitalist, led by the United States. The second is socialist, led by the USSR. Russia became the leader of the destruction of the second, but not the first. Although the withdrawal of the counterweight over time began to contribute to the erosion and the first. After the collapse of the USSR, a "liberal world order" was declared for a short time, to the destruction of which Russia really put its hand - independence, actions in Ukraine and in Syria. And rightly so.

But what was this "liberal world order"? This was a short-lived hegemony of the US and the West. And in it there was nothing liberal, that is, free. It was affirmed, and the dissent was imposed by force, that the world should be managed and live only on the Western political model, accepting Western values. The West appropriated itself the right to speak from the "international community". If this is freedom, then what is bondage? In the twentieth century, the same doctrine was preached by world communism. Until then, the Christianity that had been half abandoned in the West was now being tried to impose on the crusaders, the colonialists. Naturally, while robbing.

And it was not "order" at all. Rather, the law of the jungle is worse. The most maliciously violated international law, the normal norms of the interstate hostel. In 1991, Germany, and then the EU, recognized the independence of Croatia and Slovenia, which split from Yugoslavia. This unilateral recognition was completely at variance with international law and served as one of the main triggers that led to the civil war in Yugoslavia. In 1999, NATO spent 78 days bombing the defenseless remains of this country. The independence of the rejected Kosovo was acknowledged, where they did not even bother to hold a referendum on secession. In 2003, most of NATO countries, under a falsified pretext, invaded Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed and destabilized for decades by a whole region.

The future international order may be better than many former

2009 g. - aggression in Libya, which has plunged this country into chaos, from which it can not recover for many years.

And along the way - numerous cases of support and provocation of "color revolutions". In most cases, they also led to the chaos and suffering of peoples. The last example is Ukraine. In Europe, the "liberal world order" was tried to consolidate by an endless expansion of Western alliances, especially NATO, which, continuing it a little further on the territory that Russia considered vital to its security and survival, would inevitably lead, as warned, to a great war in Europe .

The most outrageous disgrace occurred at a time when Russian weakness reduced the deterrent role of its nuclear potential. With Russia, they ceased to reckon and started all the hard. Now the situation has changed. After provoking the crisis in Ukraine, they did not dare go further, quickly realizing that the new Russia had the ability to "dominate in escalation," that is, when it raises rates, the West will inevitably lose.

An attempt to establish Western hegemony was doomed even without active Russian actions, which stopped the expansion of Western alliances in Ukraine, or in Syria - a series of "colored" changes of legitimate governments.

These actions only made the objective process of loss by the West of the dominant positions in the world political and economic system, which he occupied the last 500 years, more convex (and therefore provoked special annoyance).

There are many reasons. I will point out the deepest, as far as I know, still almost never called.

The dominance of Europe and the West was based primarily on its military superiority, achieved just in the XVI century. Using this superiority, the Europeans led their global colonial and neocolonial expansion, simultaneously imposing Christianity, their political order and free trade, which was beneficial primarily to those who proposed or imposed its rules. The most striking episode of such imposing is the "discovery" of China in the nineteenth century under the cannons of cannons for the opium trade from then to British India. For opium, Europeans received silk, porcelain, and other goods. In the opium fog, millions of Chinese died.

When England, which for many centuries dominated the seas, gave way to US leadership, it was they who took the lead in promoting "free trade", the rules of which they wrote, relying not only on their economic might, but also on military superiority in the non-socialist world. When the Soviet Union collapsed, it seemed that the global economic liberal order would spread to the whole world, the end of history would be fine for the West.

The main reason for the collapse of this illusion is to reach the surface before that underlying tendency - the destruction of the foundation of the former liberal global economic order - military superiority.

The mutual nuclear deterrence of Russia and the United States, and now of China, India, Pakistan, Israel, France, Great Britain, along with other factors, makes great wars almost impossible, threatening the end of mankind.

Including wars against the leaders of the new world - the recent colonies or semi-colonies. Behind them, for whom it is invisible, and behind China - it is quite tangible, there are not only own nuclear arsenals, but also the most powerful nuclear and military power - Russia. If it were not for the nuclear factor, they would simply not be allowed to rise.

The foundation is destroyed. We have to compete at higher political and economic levels. And the new ones have more and more competitive advantages. Europe is clearly losing in the competition. The USA began to lose. Largely from here, the Trump phenomenon. The forces behind him want to jump out of the system created by their own country, because it has not become as profitable as before. Hence - the politicization of economic relations, attempts to hamper the creation of positive economic interdependence in Europe, formed due to the supply of Russian gas and counter purchases of goods from Europe. Hence the sanctions as a new norm of Western policy.

Now the world is going through a happy and terrible period of collapse of three world orders.

On its way out, the system of two-bloc confrontation, which is being attempted, without much success, to revive in Europe and create along the eastern perimeter of China. Dies in convulsions "liberal world order" 1990-x - the beginning of 2000-x. Under the threat and the liberal world economic order, which began to not suit its main creators. Although most other world players do not want to give it up. He benefits them.

The future, as always, is unpredictable. But I dare to predict how it can be years through 15. If, of course, the current convulsions do not pile the world into a global nuclear catastrophe.

Not only will technologies change, as everyone likes to say. The military-political foundation on which the new world order will be based will also change. North Korea is quite predictable before our eyes is getting nuclear status. Otherwise, it could not be after they defeated Iraq and Libya, abandoned their nuclear programs. In a few years, almost inevitably such a status will be sought and most likely received by South Korea and Japan. Not only because of the North Korean factor and the objective weakening of the reliability of the US ally, but also to compensate for the growing power of China. If the endless policy of threats and pressure on Iran does not stop, sooner or later it will acquire nuclear weapons. In addition to the nuclear one, another powerful military-political factor - the possession of a number of states by a cyber weapon, capable of causing damage, similar to the use of nuclear weapons - to destroy societies is very likely to appear, if it has not already appeared.

You can wring your hands, declaring that this should not be. It is likely to be, including because of the mistakes that were made when the nuclear powers attacked those who abandoned nuclear weapons.

But you can look at this new reality on the other side. The history of the last 70 years is, among other things, the history of the proliferation of nuclear weapons. First, the US, then the USSR, Britain, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan. Now North Korea. Mankind has survived. Including, and even in the first place, because mutual nuclear deterrence kept him from repeating the usual suicidal wars for his history. I will permit myself a metaphor not from the sphere of geostrategic analysis: apparently, the Almighty, horrified by the fact that his creatures are creating that unleashed two world wars in one generation, presented mankind with the weapons of Armageddon in order to deter him from definitive self-destruction.

If cyber-weapons are indeed as deadly as many suspect, it can, again, through a period of instability and fears, strengthen mutual multilateral deterrence. And then humanity will continue to move towards a new world order.

The system of two-bloc confrontation is on its way out, which they are trying to revive in Europe

From liberalism in foreign economic relations, the majority does not want to refuse. It is not by chance that now, when the US withdrew from the Pacific Trade Partnership (TTP) that was created on their initiative, they try to recreate it without them.

This world order will be much freer than the current one, already much freer than many previous ones. Already now, the imposition of political systems, cultural and human values ​​is becoming increasingly difficult. From what in the West, many wring their hands.

The road will be dangerous and long. Years on 15. It is better to start a new model of the world order from the partnership of Greater Eurasia, proposed by Russia and supported by China, including Europe. And with the coinciding Chinese One Belt - One way, supported by Russia. In the old Atlantic, the new does not seem to be born.

It is urgent to start a serious discussion as soon as possible of all the nuclear (and possibly other large and sovereign) powers on how to maintain international strategic stability in the long period of transition that has begun to a new world order. Initiative role in this dialogue is called upon to play new, first of all, Eurasian powers. Including old Russia. Ruined, reborn and therefore become new.

But without the US, nothing will be agreed upon. It remains to be hoped that someday they will come out of their collective madness. In the meantime, they will have to be rigidly restrained.

If it is possible to agree on a new military and political foundation, the future international order may be better than many of the former. And maybe it will be beautiful. What was my favorite Vienna concert of nations two hundred years ago.

A source: Rossiyskaya Gazeta

Author: Karaganov

Tags: USSR, West, Europe, Russia, War, Analytics,