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10.05.2017

What will happen with the UK and the EU? ... after the elections in France

In the second round of presidential elections in France, as expected, he has confidently won "self-nominated", "independent technocrats" and "centrist" Emmanuel Macron. It would seem that the most difficult problem for the EU electoral year 2017 - restraint in key countries Nonsystem populists - is solved.

Following the success of the EU for the results of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, and now - the president in France in the planned schedule were only elections to the German Bundestag, where the rise to power of eurosceptics and populists did not threaten. System chancellor candidateAngela Merkel(CDU) has some advantage over the other candidate system -Martin Schulz(SPD). However, on the eve of the first round of the French presidential election from the next UK, it was announced that the timetable for democratic elections in Europe 2017 year will be added still early parliamentary elections in the country. They will take place on Thursday June 8 2017 years. Election of one year in the three leading EU Member States: France, Britain and Germany - is the sum of its extraordinary event in shaping the architecture of power in Europe.

So, the political focus from France for the next month is shifted to Britain. Before the parliamentary elections in the UK remains one month. The election campaign has already started. Early parliamentary elections will be held in the UK nearly a year after the historic referendum on its consequences on the exit of the country from the European Union. The current elections are directly related to this referendum and the beginning of the official release process of the UK from the EU. British Prime MinisterTheresa Maywent to early parliamentary elections under the pretext of having to get the maximum support from voters before the difficult negotiations on the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union. In fact, May decided to capitalize for the party of conservatives to the victory of the supporters of the exit at the referendum on Brexit. Judging by the ratings, the conservatives had the maximum support from voters immediately after the referendum. Compared with the time, now Mei catches only the remaining wind in his sails. So, for example, the advantage of conservatives over Labor immediately after the referendum was 17 points, and now - only 11. With the decline in popularity in difficult negotiations for Brexit, May decided to go to the polls in advance to consolidate the Conservative Board until 2021. But the prospect for May is seen in the following way: if now she wins early elections, and then Brexit fails at negotiations with the EU, then again it will be very difficult for the conservatives to defeat the conservatives, if not impossible.

Now, preliminary public opinion polls predict a convincing victory for the Conservatives. According to them, 38% of Britons are ready to vote for conservatives, 27% for Laborites, 18% for liberal democrats, and 5% for UKP (Ukip). That is, in comparison with the parliamentary elections of 2015, conservatives should get about plus 2% of votes. Accordingly, Labor must lose minus 2%. It is expected that the third traditional party of the UK - the Liberal Democrats will receive an additional eight or ten percent of the vote. Liberal Democrats - this is the only political force to date, which consistently opposes Brexit. The UK Independence Party (Ukip) won 2015% in the election of 12,5. Now it is expected that in the early parliamentary elections it will tend to zero down. The point is that after the successful referendum that launched Brexit, there is no longer any political meaning for the existence of this party. Her charismatic chairman Nigel Faraj immediately resigned from the post of Ukip chairman immediately after the referendum, and the only member of the British parliament from Ukip will not re-nominate himself for early elections. He, too, does not see any sense in the existence of his party.

For the time being, we see clearly the general positive influence of Brexit on the political system of Great Britain. Due to the collapse of Ukip, it returns to the traditional bipartisan scheme, and the conservative party specifically in 2017 receives an enviable advantage from voters, in part due to the fact that the conservatives initiated Brexit. Not yet implemented, but only proclaimed Brexit has become an important power factor. Early parliamentary elections 2017 year - this is nothing like a second referendum on Brexit. But due to the peculiarity of the British electoral system - the personal connection of deputies with their polling stations, the preliminary picture of the attitude of the candidates to Brexit is not at all clear. Nevertheless, it is obvious that with the disappearance of Ukip by the Brexit party in the eyes of British voters, it is the conservative party. But here the rivalry between the supporters and opponents of Brexit remains among the future elected deputies from the conservative party. Recall that the same May before the referendum campaigned against Brexit.

In general, the main intrigue of the extraordinary parliamentary elections in the UK boils down to the question of whether the Conservative Party will be able to build up the current advantage that allows creating a one-party cabinet. Now the Conservatives have a majority in 17 deputies, which allows them to create a one-party government. Apparently, their candidates will be able to win several more districts. A possible surprise of the forthcoming extraordinary parliamentary elections in the UK will be the situation if the conservatives can overcome the mark in 40% in voting for them by the voters. This is the most optimistic option for Theresa May. The repetition of the result of the parliamentary elections of the year 2015 is a negative scenario, which, however, will not worsen the current positions of the conservatives.

The main opposition party of Great Britain - Labor before the early elections looks quite pale under the control of the socialist leftJeremy Corbyn. The electoral program of the Labor Party promises to increase taxes on corporations, stop the closure of hospital hospitals, increase salaries for healthcare workers and hire an additional 10 thousand police officers. Conservative leader and Prime Minister Teresa May said on Sunday that she has no plans to increase taxes. Apparently, another defeat of the Labor Party will lead to the resignation of Corbin as chairman of the party. Interestingly, former Labor Premier Tony Blair announced that he is returning to politics. The chances of him again leading the party are more than illusory.

Last week, 5 May 2017, in Britain, a kind of rehearsal of the 2017 extraordinary parliamentary elections took place - local regional elections. They were defeated by conservatives, who increased their representation in the regional parliaments of Great Britain. The opposition Labor Party lost significantly to the Conservatives, and the UK Independence Party (Ukip) lost representation in all regional parliaments, with the exception of one seat (!). In six large urban agglomerations of Britain - in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and others, in the election of heads of regional administrations, in four cases the conservatives won, and only in two - the Laborites.

At the past regional elections, the fate of almost 4900 deputy seats in regional parliaments was decided. Conservatives increased their representation in them by 558 mandates. In eleven regional parliaments, the conservatives even got an absolute majority. Labor, in turn, lost 320 seats, liberal democrats - 37, and Ukip - 114 of 115 available. Conservatives in regional elections got the result in 38% of the vote, which is by 13 percentage points better than four years ago in the last partial local elections. For the main opposition force - the Labor Party voted 27%, for the liberal democrats - 18%. Ukip decreased from 18% to 5%.

Brexit spurred the Scottish nationalists, represented by the Scottish National Party, to raise the issue of Scottish independence again through a new referendum on this issue. Coming out of the United Kingdom, according to the plan of the Scottish nationalists, will remain in the European Union. However, the regional elections that have taken place now have shown a very poor result for the Scottish National Party. Therefore, the most impressive victory was the conservatives in Scotland, where they doubled their advantage compared to 2012 year. As for the Laborites, who always had strong positions in this labor region, they now in the regional elections lost even their traditional stronghold in the proletarian Glasgow, which went under the conservatives. Whatever it was, but after this rehearsal, the early parliamentary elections in Britain should respond to the claims of the Scottish nationalists. If the representation of the Scottish National Party in the British Parliament on their results is somewhat reduced, then May's cabinet will get a firmer ground in dialogue with the Scottish separatists.

And then Theresa May connected in general negotiations on Brexit with the result of the early parliamentary elections. The more convincing he will be with the conservatives, the stronger will be the positions of her cabinet in the upcoming negotiations on withdrawal from the EU. The head of the British government warned the British in advance that negotiations on her country's exit from the EU would be difficult. During his visit to London, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker rebuked the head of the British government for not being ready for a compromise. And then, in an interview with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he predicted in advance the failure of the Brexit talks with Britain. In turn, Theresa May accused the EU of trying to influence the elections in the UK. "Fashionable" is now a charge, we note.

At last the end of April the EU summit adopted a document containing the main points of the EU's position in negotiations with London. Negotiations should take place in two stages. At the first stage it is planned to coordinate all matters relating to the UK release of EU staff. On the second - the future cooperation of the EU and the UK. While the EU sharply increased financial requirements for the United Kingdom for the withdrawal from the EU structure, bringing them up to a huge amount of € 100 billion. This is about 4% of British GDP for the year 2016. In response, the British Minister for Brexit issuesDavid DavisHe announced that his country will never pay that kind of money for a way out of the EU. According to him, the United Kingdom will pay, but only what is legally justified, and not "just what the EU wants." Nevertheless, the possible penalty charges on account of the UK have not been completed. A number of European countries requires increase the financial requirements to London. May, in turn, insists that any financial conditions were tied to the conclusion of a free trade agreement with the EU in Britain.

Negotiations on Brexit, apparently, will begin after the early parliamentary elections in the UK. The agreement on withdrawal from the EU should be approved by a qualified majority: that is, the decision should be taken by 72% of the remaining member countries representing 65% of the population. The decision should be supported by the deputies of the European Parliament. If, after the end of a two-year period, no agreement is reached and it is unanimously decided to extend the negotiations, Britain will automatically leave the EU, and all existing arrangements will cease to operate, including access to the Single Market. In this regard, the position of the new French President Emmanuel Macron is also of interest. At one time it was the French who were among the most stubborn opponents of Britain's membership in the Common Market. Now the French in the autumn of the year 2016 was appointed by Brussels to be in the first row for punishing Britain for secession from the EU. The French team was appointed as a tough negotiator for talks with Britain on the part of the European Union. It is no accident that she was headedMichel Barnier. On Sunday, in a telephone conversation the British prime minister Tereza Mey and was elected president of France Emmanuel Macron discussed issues related to exit the UK from the EU. Elected president of France Macron intends hard-line approach to the issue of the process of entering the UK from the European Union, said his adviserZhan Pizani Ferry. However, it is believed that on Brexit Macron his high patron of the financial world is scheduled to play for Britain against Germany. Macron is to maintain and reduce Brexit German appetites.

Well, well, wait and see whether this scenario is the collapse of the European Union incarnate, or all the same Macron prefers to strengthen it through a carrier update of its design - the axis Berlin-Paris.

A source: EADaily

Author: Dmitry Semushin

Tags: France, Macron, United Kingdom, European Union, Politics, Economics, Tereza Mey, Analytics