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10.05.2017 - 14: 00

What will happen with the UK and the EU? ... after the elections in France

In the second round of presidential elections in France, as expected, he has confidently won "self-nominated", "independent technocrats" and "centrist" Emmanuel Macron. It would seem that the most difficult problem for the EU electoral year 2017 - restraint in key countries Nonsystem populists - is solved.

Following the success of the EU for the results of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, and now - the president in France in the planned schedule were only elections to the German Bundestag, where the rise to power of eurosceptics and populists did not threaten. System chancellor candidateAngela Merkel(CDU) has some advantage over the other candidate system -Martin Schulz(SPD). However, on the eve of the first round of the French presidential election from the next UK, it was announced that the timetable for democratic elections in Europe 2017 year will be added still early parliamentary elections in the country. They will take place on Thursday June 8 2017 years. Election of one year in the three leading EU Member States: France, Britain and Germany - is the sum of its extraordinary event in shaping the architecture of power in Europe.

So, the political focus from France for the next month is shifted to Britain. Before the parliamentary elections in the UK remains one month. The election campaign has already started. Early parliamentary elections will be held in the UK nearly a year after the historic referendum on its consequences on the exit of the country from the European Union. The current elections are directly related to this referendum and the beginning of the official release process of the UK from the EU. British Prime MinisterTheresa MayI went to early elections under the pretext of the need to gain maximum support of voters before the difficult negotiations to withdraw Britain from the European Union structure. In fact, Mei decided to capitalize to the maximum for the Conservative Party win release of supporters in the referendum on Brexit. Maximum support among the voters, judging by the ratings, the Conservatives had immediately after the referendum. Compared with the time is now May catches only remaining wind in their sails. For example, the advantage of the Conservatives over Labor immediately after the referendum was 17 point, and now - only 11. By reducing the popularity in complex negotiations on Brexit Mae decided in advance to go to the polls to consolidate the rule of the Conservatives to 2021 years. But the outlook for May is seen in the following way: if now she wins a special election, and then in the negotiations with the EU fails Brexit, then again to defeat the Conservatives in the next election will be very difficult, if not impossible.

Now preliminary opinion polls predicting a Conservative landslide victory. According to them, in the upcoming special election for the Conservatives would vote 38% of Britons, for Labor - 27%, for the Liberal Democrats - 18%, and for the Party of the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip) - 5%. T. e. in comparison with the parliamentary elections 2015, the Conservatives have to get around plus 2% of the vote. Accordingly, the Labor Party must lose less 2%. It is expected that the third party of the traditional UK - Liberal Democrats will receive an additional eight or ten percent of the votes. Liberal Democrats - the only date political force that has consistently opposed Brexit. United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip) received 2015 12,5% in the election year. Now it is expected that at the extraordinary parliamentary elections, it will seek down to zero. The fact is that after a successful referendum that triggered Brexit, political raison d'être of the party no longer exists. Its charismatic chairman Naydzhel Faradzh immediately after the referendum, resigned from his post as chairman of Ukip and the only member of the British Parliament from Ukip will not be re-run for the early elections. He did not see any sense in the existence of his party.

So far, we see clearly the overall positive impact on the political Brexit UK system. Due to the collapse of Ukip she returns to the traditional two-party scheme, and the Conservative Party in particular in the year 2017 gets the enviable advantage of voters, in part due to the fact that it was the Conservatives initiated Brexit. It has not yet made, but only proclaimed Brexit become an important factor of power. Early parliamentary elections 2017 years - it is nothing like a second referendum on Brexit. But because of the peculiarities of the British electoral system - personal communication with their deputies polling stations, it is not clear picture of the pre-candidates to the relationship Brexit. Nevertheless, it is obvious that with the disappearance of Ukip Brexit party in the eyes of British voters it becomes the Conservative Party. But here, it's still a mystery is the ratio of supporters and opponents Brexit among future elected MPs from the Conservative Party. Recall that the same May before the referendum campaign against Brexit.

In general, the main intrigue of the early parliamentary elections in the UK is reduced to the problem of whether the Conservative Party to increase the current advantage, allowing you to create a one-party cabinet will. Now the Conservatives have a majority in 17 deputies, allowing them to create a one-party government. Apparently, their candidates will be able to win a few more districts. Possible to surprise the upcoming early parliamentary elections in the UK will be the situation if the Conservatives will be able to overcome the mark of 40% in voting for their voters. This is the most optimistic scenario for Terezy Mey. The repetition of the result of the parliamentary elections 2015 years - a negative scenario, which, however, will not worsen the current Conservative position.

The main opposition party of Great Britain - Labor before the early elections looks quite pale under the control of the socialist leftJeremy Corbyn. Labor election program promises to increase taxes on corporations to stop the closure of hospital inpatient, increase the salaries of health care workers and to hire additional 10 thousand policemen. Conservative leader and prime minister Tereza Mey said on Sunday that it had no plans to increase taxes. Apparently, another defeat Labor's lead to Corbin resignation from the post of party chairman. Interestingly, the former Labor Party Prime Minister Toni Bler announced that he is returning to politics. The chances that he once again led the party more than illusory.

Last week, 5 May 2017 years in Britain held a kind of rehearsal for the early parliamentary elections 2017 years - local and regional elections. They defeated the conservatives who increased their representation in the regional parliament of Great Britain. The opposition Labor Party lost to the Conservatives significantly, and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has lost representation in all regional parliaments, with the exception of one place (!). In the six metropolitan areas of Britain - in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and others. the election of the heads of regional administrations in the four cases, the Conservatives won only two - the Labor Party.

At the last regional elections determine the fate of almost 4900 parliamentary seats in regional parliaments. The Conservatives increased their representation in them at 558 mandates. Eleven regional parliaments conservatives even received an absolute majority. The Labor Party, in turn, lost 320 seats, the Liberal Democrats - 37, and Ukip - 114 115 from the available. Conservatives in regional elections got the result in 38% of the vote, which is 13 percentage points better than four years ago at the last partial local elections. For the main opposition force - the Labor Party voted 27%, for the Liberal Democrats - 18%. Ukip figure decreased from 18% to 5%.

Brexit spurred Scottish nationalists, which is the Scottish National Party, once again raise the question of Scottish independence by holding a new referendum on the issue. Released from the United Kingdom, according to the Scottish nationalist, will remain in the European Union. However, the regional elections held today have demonstrated very poor result for the Scottish National Party. Therefore, the most impressive was the victory of the conservatives it is in Scotland, where they doubled their advantage over 2012 year. As for the Labor Party, which has always had a strong position in the labor area, that they are now in the regional elections even lost their traditional stronghold of Glasgow in the proletarian, who went under the Conservatives. Whatever it was, but after this rehearsal early parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom should give an answer to the claims of the Scottish nationalists. If the representative of the Scottish National Party to fall slightly in the British Parliament on their results, the study Mae get more solid ground in the dialogue with the Scottish separatists.

And then Tereza Mey has connected all negotiations Brexit with the result of early parliamentary elections. The more convincing it will be the conservatives, the stronger the position of her office in the upcoming negotiations on the withdrawal from the EU. The head of the British government warned the British advance that the negotiations on the release of her country from the EU will be severe. During a visit to London, President of the European Commission Jean-Klod Yunker head of the British Government reproached a lack of readiness to compromise. And then in a conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he had already predicted the failure of negotiations on Brexit with Britain. In turn, Tereza Mey has accused the EU of trying to influence the elections in the UK. "Fashion" is now charged, we note.

At last the end of April the EU summit adopted a document containing the main points of the EU's position in negotiations with London. Negotiations should take place in two stages. At the first stage it is planned to coordinate all matters relating to the UK release of EU staff. On the second - the future cooperation of the EU and the UK. While the EU sharply increased financial requirements for the United Kingdom for the withdrawal from the EU structure, bringing them up to a huge amount of € 100 billion. This is about 4% of British GDP for the year 2016. In response, the British Minister for Brexit issuesDavid DavisHe announced that his country will never pay that kind of money for a way out of the EU. According to him, the United Kingdom will pay, but only what is legally justified, and not "just what the EU wants." Nevertheless, the possible penalty charges on account of the UK have not been completed. A number of European countries requires increase the financial requirements to London. May, in turn, insists that any financial conditions were tied to the conclusion of a free trade agreement with the EU in Britain.

Negotiations on Brexit, apparently, will begin after the early parliamentary elections in the UK. Agreement on the withdrawal from the EU must be approved by a qualified majority: that is, the decision must be made 72% of the remaining member countries, representing 65% of the population. The solution must be maintained and MEPs. If, after a two-year period will not be an agreement and will not be unanimously decided to extend the talks, the UK will automatically leave the EU, and all existing agreements will cease to have effect, including access to the single market. In this regard, and interested in the position of the new president of France Emmanuel Makron. In due time the French were among the most stubborn opponents of British membership of the Common Market. Now the French autumn 2016 was appointed by Brussels to become the first row to punish Britain for withdrawal from the EU. The French team as tough negotiators scheduled for talks with Britain from the European Union. It is no accident that it was headedMichel Barnier. On Sunday, in a telephone conversation the British prime minister Tereza Mey and was elected president of France Emmanuel Macron discussed issues related to exit the UK from the EU. Elected president of France Macron intends hard-line approach to the issue of the process of entering the UK from the European Union, said his adviserZhan Pizani Ferry. However, it is believed that on Brexit Macron his high patron of the financial world is scheduled to play for Britain against Germany. Macron is to maintain and reduce Brexit German appetites.

Well, well, wait and see whether this scenario is the collapse of the European Union incarnate, or all the same Macron prefers to strengthen it through a carrier update of its design - the axis Berlin-Paris.

A source: EADaily

Author: Dmitry Semushin

Tags: France, Macron, United Kingdom, European Union, Politics, Economics, Tereza Mey, Analytics