Analysts of the Bundeswehr considered possible scenarios of social and political development until 2040. At the same time, they do not exclude the destruction of the existing world order: among the variants of the future described in the document there is the collapse of the EU with unpredictable consequences for Germany's security, the German magazine Der Spiegel reports.
The Bundeswehr does not exclude the possibility that the Western world in its present form will cease to exist, writes the German magazine Der Spiegel. According to the publication of this version of the development of events involves the presentation to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of Germany "Strategic vision for the future of 2040." As the author of the article assures, the document appeared in February, however it was kept in secret.
On 102 pages, the Bundeswehr analysts first considered the question of how public trends and international conflicts can affect German security policy in the coming decades. This study does not provide concrete conclusions about armaments and military power, but only sets the framework in which the Bundeswehr will probably develop in the future, the German journal explains.
The result of the analysis done by the experts was six possible scenarios related to the political security of the state. The worst of them involves "multiple confrontations". In this projection of the future, the international order in the world is being destroyed by prolonged instability, the value system around the world is moving away from each other, and globalization is ending. "The EU enlargement is mostly stopped, the new states are leaving the community. Europe has lost its global competitiveness in many areas, - the authors describe one of the versions of the European future. "The increasingly disordered, partly chaotic and conflict-prone world radically changed the environment of Germany and Europe in the sphere of security policy." According to this scenario, the EU is disintegrating, and once the leading power of the United States is moving towards economic decline and is trying in vain to resist the destruction of the current world order.
In another, slightly less terrifying scenario, some of the eastern countries of the EU freeze the state of European integration, while others "adjoin the eastern bloc". In this version of the future, two opposing blocs are trading among themselves, but they are farther apart politically and culturally. The West unites the USA and Europe, the eastern world includes, first of all, China and Russia. Competitive struggle for resources is increasing, but economic ties still impede the development of major military conflicts. At the same time, dependence on natural resources pushes some Eastern European countries into Moscow's embrace.
In the next scenario, extremism flourishes in the world, and some EU partners "even if they are looking for a specific approach to the state-capitalistic model of Russia." In such a world with an incomprehensible world order, the US needs both an ordering force and a stabilizing factor. Because of the stalled globalization, China is losing weight, is becoming less stable and compensates for this by an aggressive foreign policy. Russia, on the contrary, is stabilizing in domestic politics due to high raw material prices, therefore demonstrates its readiness to clash in foreign policy. In the EU, "the end of European illusion" is possible, there are signs of alienation from the United States, and German encirclement becomes unpredictable and raises risks in the sphere of state security.
As Der Spiegel emphasizes, the official government document clearly describes the "possible collapse of the EU with probably unpredictable consequences for Germany's security." At the same time, scenarios of the future are proposed, for which the Bundeswehr should be guided when planning the budget for the next years. Germany resorted to this method for the first time, because until now the risks seemed too high. However, the authors of the document emphasize that they do not give any forecasts - they only simulated the development of events. At the same time, researchers insist that all scenarios can be implemented before the year 2040.
However, the authors of the study did not reach the worst scenario. According to Der Spiegel, such an option would have to assume the termination of NATO and the Bundeswehr, but analysts refrained from predicting their own collapse.