Trump leaves the White House and America - but not in the way his opponents would have liked. The first foreign trip of the new president is just beginning. He will visit six countries, but he will meet with the leaders of almost 80 states. The main result of the visit will be that the heads of European and Islamic countries will get acquainted with Trump, and the president himself will act as a peacemaker and unifier.
Tramp's national security aide has already described the upcoming visit of the chief abroad as historical - and General McMaster (who, incidentally, will not accompany the president) is closer to the truth in this case than to the stamps of the late Soviet media that put this epithet on the various visits of Comrade Brezhnev. Trump really has a very unusual visit - although the owners of the White House in general have very strange relations with foreign countries.
Now it's hard to imagine, but the American presidents have been away less than a century ago - with the general history of the US almost two and a half centuries. On the one hand, in the XIX century they had no choice. You will not go to neighbors - in the south the country from which they took half of the territory, and in the north the colony of the country from which they themselves barely won independence. Well, sailing to Europe is a long time. And not to anyone - because there were monarchies all around (except for France), and with the kings of the leaders of the republic, who saw themselves as the continuer of the tradition of republican Rome, it was even more dangerous to communicate than now with Putin. And the monarchs of the Old World themselves were not eager to get acquainted with the New Masons.
Woodrow Wilson was the first person who decided to go abroad, and that was only because he could not not go: the US became in fact the main winner in the world war, and it was necessary to equip the world according to its own rules. In January 1919, Wilson arrived in Paris for a peace conference, which eventually worked out such an unfair foundation of the world order that actually programmed the Second World War. The US president spent six months in Europe, and soon after his return home, he suffered a stroke and Wilson actually lost his capacity for work.
Moreover, Wilson's trip could not be called a foreign visit to a particular country - participation in an international conference has little to do with bilateral relations. And until a new war began, there was no need to go abroad from the American presidents. Well, if only in the near semi-colonial foreign countries, which you can not call abroad: for example, President Coolidge traveled to Cuba in 1928 (just as Theodore Roosevelt became the first president to leave the US for the first time-in 1906 he Traveled to Panama, a formally independent state that the Americans separated from Colombia a few years before).
The Second World War forced President Franklin Roosevelt to travel around the world - not only to neighboring Canada, but also to Africa (Cairo), Asia (Tehran) and Europe (Yalta). All these trips were to multilateral conferences - with Churchill, Stalin, Chiang Kai-shek. No bilateral relations.
So, in fact, the first American president, who went abroad with an ordinary visit, was General Eisenhower. America began to play a global game, and even the general himself was atypical president - during the war he already "saw" both Europe and Asia. Eisenhower, however, did not often practice bilateral diplomacy - but still went to London, that is, to the former metropolis, to Paris, to Delhi. He traveled and the "floating aircraft carriers" - Taiwan, the Philippines. But from a trip to Japan in 1960, we had to give up - too much was the outrage of the Japanese with a new treaty on the military alliance (actually continuing the occupation), imposed by the United States. As well as from a visit to the USSR in the same year - the trip was canceled after the destruction in our sky of an American spy plane.
The next presidents, Kennedy and Johnson, sometimes left the States, but rarely. By and large, the foreign policy activity of the head of the White House has acquired a regular and serious character under Richard Nixon, who even visited Beijing and Moscow. Then everything went on already rolled-in - for the next seven presidents, trips around the world became a natural part of their work. For half a century, passed from Eisenhower to Obama, the US became a superpower - and after 1991 year - and hegemon. External affairs now meant more than internal affairs, not for the people, but for the president.
There was even a certain tradition of the first visits after the election - the last four presidents first went to their neighbors, that is, Canadians (usually) or Mexicans (exception). For Trump, all these traditions do not matter - he came to change the rules.
And so he travels to the Middle East, that is, to the Muslims, who were frightened by the entire election campaign. Now this is already forgotten, but before the "Russian hackers" the main theme in the US was how bad it is that Trump is an Islamophobe and a Mexican-hater. With the president of Mexico Trump spoke immediately after the election - but he will go to the Muslims for a visit. His week-long trip begins with Saudi Arabia, and although to the Kaaba, the most holy place for Muslims, Trump will naturally not be allowed, the very fact of visiting the kingdom that sprang up around Mecca and Medina is more than revealing.
Trump wants to completely remove all opportunities for speculation around his personal Islamophobia: "I will talk with the leaders of Muslim countries to call them to fight radical Islamic terrorism and extremism and emphasize the peaceful nature of their faith," the US president said.
But not only a visit to Saudi Arabia, but the entire trip is demonstratively symbolic. As McMaster, the president's national security aide, said, "none of the US presidents has yet visited holy places for Jews, Christians and Muslims on the same trip."
Indeed, 20-21 May Trump will spend in the kingdom, then travel to Israel, where he will visit Jerusalem, and to Palestine, where he will come to Bethlehem. That is 22-23 of May, he will be in the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, both at the Western Wall and Al-Aqsa. 24 th Trump waits at the Vatican Pope Francis Francis, and 25 in Brussels for a meeting with the president of the United States are going to the summits of NATO and the EU. From the capital of the European Union, Trump goes to Sicily, where 26-27 May in Taormina there will be a summit of the "seven", that is, those who have already spent the previous day with Trump will join the Japanese and Canadian premieres. And from there, Trump will return to the States, unless, of course, he has the idea to fly on his way home somewhere else.
Given that 21 for the meeting with Trump in Riyadh, the Saudis are gathering the Arab-Islamic-American summit, at which the 55 countries will be represented (yes, the Muslim world extends from Nigeria to Indonesia), and in Brussels, Trump is waiting for the leaders of the 27 NATO countries And the EU, recalling Netanyahu, Abbas, the Roman pontiff, adding the Canadian and Japanese prime minister, it turns out that within one week before the eyes of Trump representatives of 87 states will pass - just over half of the countries in the world. And most of them (certainly not less than 60, and even 70) will be presented at the highest level. That is, Trump at least briefly get acquainted with the third heads of state of the world.
This is really unusual - there was no precedent that the new head of state (Trump only had a hundred days in power) was so quickly introduced into the world. And this despite the fact that global media, controlled by a supranational but Western-based elite, has created Trump a reputation as perhaps the most dangerous person in the world. The shock of Trump's election in the same European elite was very strong, Latin American leaders were also shaking, and Islamic countries were told that Trump was almost an "enemy of Islam." And now everything is changing - for the sake of Trump in Riyadh, the leaders of all Muslim countries of the world are gathered, in Brussels Europeans will compete for the attention of the American guest - that no one is afraid of the terrible Trump?
It's simpler - Trump retained power and proved that he is not at all a madcap and not an amateur. And now the whole world understands that his intention to change the US relations with other countries, the system of alliances and, in general, the place of America in the world are not empty words, but real intent. Yes, on the way to his goal, Trump will have to constantly overcome the resistance of the Atlantic elites in the US itself, but the direction of the movement is already clear. Like Trump's way of doing business - sharply raise the stakes, put pressure on the opponent's partner, but in order to agree, come to an agreement, and not psychologically or geopolitically to suppress.
In this trip for Russia, it is interesting how Trump will behave with the leaders of the Arab world and with the Europeans. In recent years, Russia has seriously strengthened its influence in the Middle East, and America has suffered very strong reputational losses. The states can not forgive the invasion of Iraq, nor the war in Libya, but even more they can not forgive betrayals - Mubarak in Egypt, the idea of overthrowing Assad. The states do not believe - and already the former closest allies, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.
And the main thing Trump tries to do now is to restore the confidence of the Middle East to the American president. One of the main ways to do this will be his attempt to launch again the process of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations. But most importantly, he will have to voice his vision of US policy in the region after IGIL *. That is, how the US will behave in the region after the "caliphate" is achieved, together with Russia or in parallel with it.
Now the idea is popular that Trump wants to support the idea of an Arab NATO - to play on fear of part of the Arab countries over Iran. As the Washington Post writes, during a visit to Riyadh, Trump will allegedly submit his plan for creating an "Arab NATO". The idea of creating some kind of united coalition of Sunni countries has long been put forward by the Saudis - especially actively they promoted it during the war in Yemen (more precisely, it would be called the Saudi-Yemenite war). But although the Saudis managed to attract individual representatives of the Persian Gulf countries, for example, pilots from the United Arab Emirates, in general, none of the Arab countries was eager to fight for Saudi interests in Yemen. Even in exchange for a lot of money.
So the idea of creating an "Arab NATO" from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and others, of course, can be voiced - but practically unworkable. And who would become a unifying enemy that would stimulate the creation of such an organization? Iran - as Israel and some forces in the US want? Or Israel - as the Arab ummah would immediately want, which would be difficult to explain why some Islamic countries unite to oppose another Islamic country, and not the Jewish state.
For Middle Eastern leaders, accustomed in recent years to constant communication with Putin and the fact that Russia has become the most active external player in the region, it will be important and how Trump will talk about the Russian president. Will he publicly and privately talk about the need to contain and oust Russia from the region - or, conversely, will call for joint actions in both Syrian and Palestinian-Israeli issues.
But even more Trump's attitude to Putin will interest his interlocutors in Sicily - and that he will tell his colleagues about the "seven". The host of the meeting, Italian Prime Minister Gentiloni, recently came to Sochi specially to voice the position of Putin on a number of important international topics. Yes, Italy directly acts as a lobbyist for Russia and a self-styled intermediary, because in Rome, the strongest opposition to Moscow imposed by the Atlantists is stronger than others. And realizing that independently Italy (deprived of a part of the sovereignty in favor of the European Union) can not do this, try to resolve the situation at the level of the whole West.
The arrival of Trump gives such an opportunity - and at least two participants in the Sicilian summit will expect from the American president a hint of an impending improvement in relations with Russia. In addition to Italy, it is also Japan - and Sintaro Abe has already moved closer to Moscow. In general, this summit will be a meeting of newcomers - a solid experience of such meetings is only with Merkel and Abe, and for the four (Trump, May, Gentiloni and Macron) this will be the first summit in their career.
Another feature is this trip - never before the security problem of the American president did not have such significance, as this time. And the question, whether Trump will return to America, is difficult to call alarmist.