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22.02.2017 - 10: 59

The economy of Ukraine is no longer to hope

Exactly three years ago, in Ukraine there was a coup d'etat, one consequence of which was the rapid degradation of the economy. From this perspective, the main result of euromaidan - this is the final consolidation of Ukraine on the global economic periphery in the same company with the backward countries of Africa. And the roll was surprisingly easy on this track.

You have to understand that the new Ukrainian authorities with their own hands have done everything that the country has entered an accelerated rate in the number of peripheral economies. And, it seems, is not too thought that jump off of this path will be almost impossible.

Country Global South

For the economy, the dream of European integration of Ukraine turned the movement in the opposite direction. According to World Bank data, in 2014, the GDP fell in absolute terms in the 28,1% in 2015-m drop was already 31,3%-its follow-Ukrainian GDP was 90,6 billion dollars, which is comparable with the level of 2005 years. For comparison, in the crisis 2009 year Ukraine's GDP fell by almost 35%, but the economy quickly "jumped from the bottom", to 2013 year reaching a record for the post-Soviet period mark - 183,3 billion dollars.

Now the economic recovery at least until this level is as a matter of very distant future. In the past year, according to a recent estimate by Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine's GDP grew by about 2%, but this only means that the economy has found the proverbial "bottom of the crisis", which can remain indefinitely. The vast majority of the population growth of the economy simply does not feel at such a small scale, and the incentives for rapid recovery growth in the country do not. Especially in the per capita GDP continued to fall: from the level in the 3969 2013 dollars a year, he dropped to the level 2052 in the dollar in the last year, which again returns to Ukraine over a decade ago. On a global scale, a close level of GDP per capita are countries such as Uzbekistan, the Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Laos - in a word, those who decided to attribute to the global periphery, or "global South".

Poverty is a global periphery countries is a direct result of the specific structure of their economy, which is dominated by the production of raw materials. This is the path of Ukraine's economy was moving steadily the last three years, as illustrated by the data on exports, given the state statistics service. Since 2013 2016 years on his total has fallen more than doubled - up to 77 32,7 billion dollars, but in some commodity positions decline was not too significant. For example, the volume of export crop production in 2013-2016 8,9 year dropped from up to 7,1 billion dollars (including cereals - with up to 6,4 5,4 billion dollars), while exports of fats and oils remained unchanged - 3,5 billion dollars a year. Taking into account the devaluation of the hryvnia three times, this means that Ukrainian producers had to dramatically increase exports.

The export industry fell much faster. The volume of export of mineral products (coal, salt, ores, fuel) decreased from 7,5 to 1,7 billion dollars over the past three years, chemical industry products - with 4,3 to 1,4 billion dollars, ferrous metals - with 17,6 to 7,6 billion dollars, and products from them - with up to 2,6 0,6 billion dollars. In engineering, for a specified period, exports fell in 2,7 times - up to 10,3 3,8 billion dollars, and if 2013 year it accounted 16,3% of the total volume of Ukrainian export, but now - just 11,6%. At the same time the share of crop exports rose from before 14 21%, the share of fats and oils - with up to 5,5 10,8%. In total, according to Ukrainian National Scientific Centre "Institute of agrarian economy" on the APC in the past year had to 42% of the country's exported goods.

In short, in the global division of labor for three years after euromaidan Ukraine confidently entrenched in the group of countries specializing in agricultural products, and mainly very simple.

It is worth noting that all of the official macroeconomic statistics of Ukraine the last two or three years is invariably accompanied by the note "excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol, and part of the zone of the antiterrorist operation." But even if we do not take into account the industrial enterprises of Donbass, are now on the territory of the DNR and LNR or destroyed during the war, would have to admit that the new government actually condoned the accelerated de-industrialization of the country.

The number of closed, or stopped breathing its last industrial enterprises of Ukraine and Crimea outside "ATO zone" is calculated several dozen. The first number in this list - Aircraft Building Concern "Antonov", liquidated at the beginning of last year. Officially, it was served as a connection to his business concern "Ukroboronprom" but in 2015, the "Antonov" has collected only two aircraft, and in the last year-no one, and due to the lack of Russian components. At the same time the release of the automotive industry products, according to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the last year fell to 36,5%-just something to 5264 units, which in itself is negligible for a country with a population of about 40 million. Home loss in this segment - Zaporizhia automobile plant, will cease to exist at the beginning of last year. In critical condition due to the rupture of relations with Russia were also engine-building holding "Motor Sich" and Dnepropetrovsk raketostroitelny concern "Pivdenmash", which once began a career of Leonid Kuchma.

Yes, in the industry last year there was a slight recovery - an increase of 2,4%. But this again does not compensate for the monstrous failures 2014 and 2015 years, when the index of industrial production fell respectively 10,7 and 13,4%. The loss of the Russian market for Ukrainian industry has not been sufficiently compensated by access to the markets of other countries (first of all - the EU), and count on the fact that Ukrainian industry will come to life due to the inflow of foreign investments, it is clearly not necessary. The latest version of the investment attractiveness ranking of the World Economic Forum, published in September last year, Ukraine ranked 85-place, adjacent to Namibia. And in the credit rating of S & P international agency in the past year, the country was close to Ghana and Iraq.

Because of the Ukrainian industry has high hopes on domestic demand and falling incomes.

The extent of degradation "of the economy" in Ukraine have become more prominent, if we recall that after the collapse of the Soviet Union the country has received perhaps the most balanced economy in all post-Soviet states. Without exaggeration excellent opportunities for the development of agriculture, a dense network of industrial enterprises (especially in the east and center of the country), several major export ports, rich resources for the development of resorts and tourism, a highly educated population - all of these start data allow Ukraine to become one of the most important economies Europe. As a result, as the level of GDP per capita Ukraine is below even the poorest European countries - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and Macedonia, although it is slightly ahead of Moldova.

Land net population

One of the main problems of the countries of the world economic periphery is that they tend to have a fairly large population, excessive for the peripheral-type economy. Therefore, the peripheral countries are an active supplier of labor migrants to more developed countries, and most of all - with zeroing received at home competencies: Nigerian or Bangladeshis with higher education is hardly shining work on a specialty in London or New York.

Judging by the demographic picture of Ukraine, it has long stood precisely on this path, and euromaidan created the preconditions for reducing the country's population has accelerated sharply.

On December 1 2013 years, according to official statistics, the population of Ukraine was 45,44 million people, including about 2,36 million residents of the Crimea. After the reunification of the Crimea with Russia Ukrainian statistics ceased to take into account the population of the peninsula, but continues to include in their reports to the DNI and the LC population, which, of course, creates rich opportunities for manipulation. Even so, the calculation is that over the past three years, the population of Ukraine decreased by at least half a million people. Officially recognized by the amount of "cash" population in December last year 1 - 42,6 million people (without the Crimea and Sevastopol), the number of "permanent" population is even smaller - 42,43 million.

At the same time, according to the Main Department of Statistics in the DNI 1 May last year, the republic lived 2,32 million people, and in the LC on June 1 2016 years - 1,5 million people in total - 3,82 million people. It is clear that these data are far from perfect, but at least they make it possible to estimate what part of the population of Ukraine actually lost after euromaidan. And in addition to the amount should take into consideration the quality of the population, much of which was occupied in industrial production.

It should also be noted that Yulia Tymoshenko for the millions of Ukrainians who have moved to EU countries in the last three years.

But even if we leave aside the inevitable speculative estimates of population of Ukraine after 2014 years, it remains a fact of his regular natural decline. For 11 months of last year the number of deaths exceeded the number of births per thousand people 164,3, 2015 in the year the figure was 183 thousand in the year 2014 - 166,8 thousand in the year 2013 - 158,7 thousand. Last time the population of Ukraine has shown growth in the distant 1993 year, when it amounted to 51,87 million. This is perhaps the main difference from the majority of its Ukrainian partners on the global peripheral "club" - the Ukrainian authorities do not have to deal with the demographic boom, typical of Asian and African countries: population itself dies or leaves the country.

If we impose a long-term demographic processes have changed dramatically over the past three years, the structure of the economy, we can easily assume that the most fundamental issue for the economy of Ukraine is currently the division of the land - the main liquid assets of the country. Over the years 15 euromaidan to the rural population of Ukraine decreased from up to 16,1 14,1 million people, and by the end of last year was estimated at 13,2 million people (without the Crimea and Sevastopol). This unstoppable process only plays into the hands of large agricultural holdings, especially transnational, since the technological level achieved by them It lets you organize virtually uninhabited production. Surplus rural population in these conditions - it is unnecessary ballast, reducing profitability.

The only question that needs to be solved latifundistas - is the removal of the moratorium on the privatization of Ukrainian farmland, set in the era of Leonid Kuchma to January 1 2017 years. In October last year, the Supreme Rada extended the moratorium, but it is, of course, did not stop the lobbyists its cancellation, which include the president Petro Poroshenko - 17 February a group of deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of the corresponding representation made to the Constitutional Court. Here we must understand that the cancellation of the moratorium is one of the key requirements of the IMF in exchange for new measures to support the Ukrainian economy. The result of the previous steps of this friendly help is very obvious: if 2009-2013 years the ratio Ukrainian sovereign debt to GDP ratio was kept relatively comfortable range 34-41%, but last year the figure was already 92,7%.

In this case unfolded after euromaidan "institutional reforms", which took place in full accordance with the requirements of international lenders, once again confirmed the long known fact that almost all of the costs of the absolutised neoliberal economists' improve the institutions "shall be the country's population. In this sense, the most lucid galloping increase in utility tariffs, which put many Ukrainians faced with a choice - not to pay for utility services or discontinue the primary living expenses. This is evidenced by at least the fact that more than doubled in the past year, the amount of municipal debt-with up to 10,9 23,4 billion hryvnia. To this must be added double-digit inflation-24,9 2014% in the year, 43,3% in 2015-11,4% m, and in the past - and triple devaluation of hryvnia to the dollar mentioned above. According to the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, made last fall, just one year the share of Ukrainians actually living below the poverty line increased from up to 28,6 58,3%-Another indication that the main result has been a rapid euromaidan Ukraine's entry in the poorest countries of the world.

A source: LOOK

Author: Nikolay Protsenko

Tags: Ukraine, Analyst, Crisis, Economics, Statistics, Demography