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The economy of Ukraine is no longer to hope

The economy of Ukraine is no longer to hope

Tags: Ukraine, Analyst, Crisis, Economics, Statistics, Demography

Exactly three years ago, in Ukraine there was a coup d'etat, one consequence of which was the rapid degradation of the economy. From this perspective, the main result of euromaidan - this is the final consolidation of Ukraine on the global economic periphery in the same company with the backward countries of Africa. And the roll was surprisingly easy on this track.

You have to understand that the new Ukrainian authorities with their own hands have done everything that the country has entered an accelerated rate in the number of peripheral economies. And, it seems, is not too thought that jump off of this path will be almost impossible.

Country Global South

For the economy, the dream of European integration of Ukraine turned the movement in the opposite direction. According to World Bank data, in 2014, the GDP fell in absolute terms in the 28,1% in 2015-m drop was already 31,3% - its follow-Ukrainian GDP was 90,6 billion dollars, which is comparable with the level of 2005 years. For comparison, in the crisis 2009 year Ukraine's GDP fell by almost 35%, but the economy quickly "jumped from the bottom", to 2013 year reaching a record for the post-Soviet period mark - 183,3 billion dollars.

Now, the economic recovery at least to this level looks like a matter of a very distant future. Last year, according to a recent assessment by the Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine, GDP grew by about 2%, but this only means that the economy has groped for the notorious "bottom of the crisis", on which it can stay indefinitely. The overwhelming majority of the population growth of the economy on such a small scale simply does not feel, and the country does not have incentives for rapid recovery growth. Moreover, in terms of per capita GDP continued to fall: from the level of 3969 dollars in 2013, it fell to the level of 2052 dollar in the last year, which again returns Ukraine more than a decade ago. On a global scale, countries such as Uzbekistan, the Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Laos - in a word, those who are generally referred to as the global periphery or the "global South" - have a similar GDP per capita.

The poverty of the countries of the global periphery is a direct consequence of the specific structure of their economy, in which the production of primary raw materials predominates. It is on this path that the Ukrainian economy has been moving steadily for the past three years, as evidenced by the export data provided by the State Statistics Service. From 2013 to 2016, its total volume fell more than twice - from 77 to 32,7 billion dollars, but in some commodity positions the decline was not very significant. For example, the volume of exports of crop production in 2013-2016 declined from 8,9 to 7,1 billion dollars (including cereals - from 6,4 to 5,4 billion dollars), while exports of fats and oils remained at the same level - 3,5 billion dollars per year. Given the triple devaluation of the hryvnia, this means that Ukrainian producers had to dramatically increase their export volumes.

In the industry, exports fell much faster. The volume of export of mineral products (coal, salt, ore, fuel) over the past three years has decreased from 7,5 to 1,7 billion dollars, the output of chemical industry - from 4,3 to 1,4 billion dollars, ferrous metals - from 17,6 to 7,6 billion dollars, and products from them - from 2,6 to 0,6 billion dollars. In mechanical engineering for the specified period, exports fell by 2,7 times - from 10,3 to 3,8 billion dollars, and if in 2013 year it accounted for 16,3% of the total volume of Ukrainian exports, now - only 11,6%. Simultaneously, the share of crop production in exports increased from 14 to 21%, the proportion of fats and oils - from 5,5 to 10,8%. In total, according to the data of the Ukrainian National Research Center "Institute of Agrarian Economics", last year agricultural sector had 42% of goods exported from the country.

In short, in the global division of labor for three years after euromaidan Ukraine confidently entrenched in the group of countries specializing in agricultural products, and mainly very simple.

It is worth noting that all of the official macroeconomic statistics of Ukraine the last two or three years is invariably accompanied by the note "excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol, and part of the zone of the antiterrorist operation." But even if we do not take into account the industrial enterprises of Donbass, are now on the territory of the DNR and LNR or destroyed during the war, would have to admit that the new government actually condoned the accelerated de-industrialization of the country.

The number of closed, or stopped breathing its last industrial enterprises of Ukraine and Crimea outside "ATO zone" is calculated several dozen. The first number in this list - Aircraft Building Concern "Antonov", liquidated at the beginning of last year. Officially, it was served as a connection to his business concern "Ukroboronprom" but in 2015, the "Antonov" has collected only two aircraft, and in the last year - no one, and due to the lack of Russian components. At the same time the release of the automotive industry products, according to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the last year fell to 36,5% - just something to 5264 units, which in itself is negligible for a country with a population of about 40 million. Home loss in this segment - Zaporizhia automobile plant, will cease to exist at the beginning of last year. In critical condition due to the rupture of relations with Russia were also engine-building holding "Motor Sich" and Dnepropetrovsk raketostroitelny concern "Pivdenmash", which once began a career of Leonid Kuchma.

Yes, according to the results of the last year, there was some recovery in the industry - the growth was 2,4%. But this again does not compensate for the monstrous failures 2014 and 2015 years, when the index of industrial production fell respectively to 10,7 and 13,4%. The loss of the Russian market for Ukrainian industry was not sufficiently compensated for by access to the markets of other countries (primarily the European Union), and it is clearly not necessary to expect that the Ukrainian industry will come to life due to the inflow of foreign investments. In the latest version of the rating of the investment attractiveness of the World Economic Forum, published in September last year, Ukraine took 85 place, next to Namibia. And in the credit rating of the international agency S & P last year the country was next to Ghana and Iraq.

Because of the Ukrainian industry has high hopes on domestic demand and falling incomes.

The scale of the degradation of the "national economy" of Ukraine becomes even more prominent if we recall that after the collapse of the USSR, this country received, perhaps, the most balanced economy from all post-Soviet states. Without exaggeration, the brilliant opportunities for the development of the agro-industrial complex, a dense network of industrial enterprises (especially in the east and in the center of the country), several large export ports, rich resources for the development of resorts and tourism, a highly educated population - all these starting data allowed Ukraine to become one of the most important economies Europe. As a result, in terms of GDP per capita, Ukraine is below even the poorest European countries - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and Macedonia, although somewhat ahead of Moldova.

Land net population

One of the main problems of the countries of the world economic periphery is that they tend to have a fairly large population, excessive for the peripheral-type economy. Therefore, the peripheral countries are an active supplier of labor migrants to more developed countries, and most of all - with zeroing received at home competencies: Nigerian or Bangladeshis with higher education is hardly shining work on a specialty in London or New York.

Judging by the demographic picture of Ukraine, it has long stood precisely on this path, and euromaidan created the preconditions for reducing the country's population has accelerated sharply.

At 1 December 2013, according to official statistics, the population of Ukraine was 45,44 million people, including the order of 2,36 million people in the Crimea. After the reunion of the Crimea with Russia, Ukrainian statistics have ceased to take into account the population of the peninsula, but continues to include the population of the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of China, which, of course, creates rich opportunities for manipulation. But even with such a calculation it turns out that over the past three years the population of Ukraine has decreased by at least half a million people. The officially recognized number of "cash" population at 1 December last year - 42,6 million people (without the Crimea and Sevastopol), the number of "permanent" population is even less - 42,43 million people.

At the same time, according to the Main Department of Statistics in the DNI 1 May last year, the republic lived 2,32 million people, and in the LC on June 1 2016 years - 1,5 million people in total - 3,82 million people. It is clear that these data are far from perfect, but at least they make it possible to estimate what part of the population of Ukraine actually lost after euromaidan. And in addition to the amount should take into consideration the quality of the population, much of which was occupied in industrial production.

It should also be noted that Yulia Tymoshenko for the millions of Ukrainians who have moved to EU countries in the last three years.

But even aside from the inevitable speculative estimates of the population of Ukraine after 2014, it is an undeniable fact that its regular natural loss remains. For 11 months of last year, the number of deaths exceeded the number of people born on 164,3 thousand people, in 2015 this indicator was 183 thousand, 2014 in 166,8 thousand, 2013 thousand in 158,7. The last time the population of Ukraine showed growth in the far 1993 year, when it was 51,87 million people. In this, perhaps, the main difference of Ukraine from the majority of its partners in the global peripheral "club" - the Ukrainian authorities do not have to deal with the demographic boom typical for the countries of Asia and Africa: population itself dies or leaves the country.

If we impose long-term demographic processes on the structure of the economy that has changed dramatically over the past three years, we can easily assume that the most important issue for the Ukrainian economy is currently the division of land, the country's main liquid asset. For 15 years to euromidan, the rural population of Ukraine decreased from 16,1 to 14,1 million people, and according to the results of the last year it was estimated at 13,2 million people (without Crimea and Sevastopol). This non-stop process only plays into the hands of large agroholdings, primarily transnational ones, because the technological level they reached It lets you organize virtually uninhabited production. Surplus rural population in these conditions - it is unnecessary ballast, reducing profitability.

The only issue to be solved by the latifundists is the lifting of the moratorium on the privatization of Ukrainian agricultural lands, established in the era of Leonid Kuchma before 1 January 2017. In October last year, the Verkhovna Rada extended the moratorium, but this, of course, did not stop the lobbyists of its abolition, including President Petro Poroshenko himself - 17 February, a group of deputies of the Verkhovna Rada made a submission to the Constitutional Court. It should be understood that the abolition of this moratorium is one of the key requirements of the IMF in exchange for new measures to support the Ukrainian economy. The result of previous measures of this friendly assistance is very clear: if in 2009-2013 years the ratio of the Ukrainian sovereign debt to GDP was kept in a rather comfortable range of 34-41%, then last year this figure reached 92,7%.

At the same time, the "institutional reforms" that followed the euromidan, which were in full compliance with the requirements of international creditors, once again confirmed the long-known fact that almost all the costs incurred by the neoliberal economists, which are absolutized by the "improvement of institutions," are borne by the population of the country. In this sense, the galloping growth of communal tariffs is the most obvious, and many Ukrainians have been faced with the choice of not paying for utilities or abandoning the priority expenses for living. This is evidenced at least by the fact that last year the volume of municipal debts has more than doubled - with up to 10,9 23,4 billion hryvnia. To this must be added double-digit inflation - 24,9 2014% in the year, 43,3% in 2015-11,4% m, and in the past - and triple devaluation of hryvnia to the dollar mentioned above. According to the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, made last fall, just one year the share of Ukrainians actually living below the poverty line increased from up to 28,6 58,3% - Another indication that the main result has been a rapid euromaidan Ukraine's entry in the poorest countries of the world.

Nikolay Protsenko
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