The inauguration of the new President of France, Emmanuel Macron, on 14 May will probably open a new stage not only in the history of the French Fifth Republic, but of the entire European Union. The victory of the 39-year-old politician with his movement "Forward!", Created only last year, was built on the denial of the existing bipolar political system in the country. In this regard, Macron with some stretch can be considered a "French Trump", if, of course, distracted from its Euro-Atlantic and globalist preferences.
Anyway, in opposition to the candidate of the "National Front", Marin Le Pen positioning Macron as a "fighter against the elite" (which, of course, can be treated with irony and simultaneously as a supporter of common European values brought success. However, the "hundred days" of Macron are just beginning, and the prospects for the forthcoming parliamentary elections for the forces supporting him in June look far from rosy. There will not be a second round of elections for the National Assembly, but neither will Xinxx% of votes cast Marin Le Pen, remorse-oriented socialists, leftist radicals Jean-Luc Melancheon and the right-wing "Republicans" anywhere in the second round of the presidential election. This foretells the most unexpected alignment of forces in the new composition of the National Assembly.
According to recent sociological research, the "presidential" election bloc, consisting of the "Forward" movement and its junior partner, the "Democratic Movement", is able to get 11-26% of votes in the first round of elections 29 June. However, the coalition led by the "Republicans" and the "National Front" do not lag far behind. Sociological service Harris gives them 22% of votes in the first round.
In the parliamentary elections, both the National Front and the parties whose candidates did not qualify for the second round of the presidential election will do everything to take precedence over those who voted for the new president, says Antoine Jardin, an expert at the University of Science Po: "Le Pen took the historical Height - for it voted 11 million French, which was never even close, and it is such a time to increase its representation in parliament will not want to miss. "
Even more ambiguous is the victory of Emmanuel Macron for the future of the European Union. Despite enthusiastic comments from leading European politicians about his election (which in fact is a sigh of relief in connection with the non-election of Marin Le Pen), it is already clear that with the new owner of the Elysee Palace, Brussels will be more difficult than in the case of his predecessors - François Olland or even Nicolas Sarkozy. And the point here is not only in the unpredictability (elusiveness of the political person) of Macron, but also in his experience as a minister of economy.
The choice of the French was primarily affected by the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The desire of the young and ambitious Macron to give a new impetus to the EU's unifying mechanisms is not exactly what the ruling political elites of countries such as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic or Slovakia would like to hear from it, and are already losing their traditional partner in the face of the UK in the EU. At least in Budapest and Warsaw, Macron is considered a dangerous "upstart" capable of destroying a more or less well-balanced balance in the EU's space along the West-East and North-South lines, as well as making a disruption in the interaction between Paris and Berlin, "Their interests are East European leaders.
Another loser in the elections in France is, apparently, Germany. In recent years, the interests of the ruling German coalition have been met by the presence in France of the weak and unpopular President François Hollande, who silently allowed Angela Merkel and her adherents, under the oath of allegiance to the Franco-German alliance, to play the first violin in European affairs. However, in the portfolio of the former Minister of Economy of France, there are a number of reform projects for both the eurozone and the entire EU, capable of throwing German politicians and financiers into cold sweat: from the resuscitation of the idea of a large-scale issue of eurobonds and the redistribution of the debt burden from the Mediterranean countries to the shoulders of Germany, Principles of strict budgetary economy in the euro area.
Finally, there is another element of the political landscape of the EU, for which the triumph of Macron is a serious reason to ponder. This is the ruling political class, brought up in the traditions of the bipolar model, based on the pendulum process of the regular change of "right" and "left", liberals (conservatives) and socialists (social democrats). As for Macron, he has nothing to do with the traditional post-Golli political system of the Fifth Republic. Apparently, in Europe the public-political request for a worn-out bipolar model as such, whose main advantage lies in the fact that it guarantees to the powerful of this world the preservation of their status quo, has ripened.
Almost half of all voters in the first round of the presidential elections in France - the electorate of Marin Le Pen and the extremely leftist Jean-Luc Melancheon - voted for candidates who act under anti-elite slogans and call into question the EU's right to exist. Even now, in the forthcoming election list of the "Forward!" Movement in the coming parliamentary elections in June, about half of the candidates have never been elected to the government and are more likely to be public activists than politicians.
All this is very similar to the process of evolutionary change of elites that has begun. Something similar, although with varying degrees of manifestation, is observed in other European countries.