Events in Ukraine have far-reaching consequences for the fate of Russia, and perhaps - and the world at large. Their understanding requires a global understanding of the historical, what can we learn from the approach of the pillars of history, as Arnold Toynbee and I. Wallerstein. Now Russian mature global change - and nowhere else to put them.
The European and the world economy is on the brink of stagnation - the ultimate extension of the capitalist system is achieved. Events in Ukraine - a reflection of fierce battle for markets that are European TNCs and the main beneficiaries of the euro area - Germany and France. Yanukovych "punished" for refusing to European integration. The policy of Europe is quite prosaic - itindustrial center destroys the economy of peripheral (in Vol. h. their) countries, turning them into markets and a source of cheap labor. Ukraine want to use as a market and anti-Russian and NATO bridgehead in the vicinity of the South of Russia.
The West has always fought for Russian resources - our history are continuous war that involved either repel aggression, or the return of the lost. And the first and the second world war started by Germany were caused by attempts to expand their markets. Of course, the contradictions of the parties at the time of the First World War have been more dramatic, but in fact we are moving in the same convoy. Let us not forget that the first global crisis of the Great Depression was actually overcome by the Second World War and the crisis 70-80-x due to the collapse of the socialist system. As said P.Krugman, "What we need now - so this is the financial equivalent of war." Hawks of the United States is using any excuse for war hysteria and the growth of military spending - is the inevitable nature of the sprawling military machine.
The reality is that the cold war all the time did not run out. Aggressive circles in the West pursue a policy of double standards, hypocrisy words and deeds. External "warming relations" between Gorbachev-Yeltsin was just an illusion.Real strategy of the West - consistent with those pushing Russia's geopolitical position, which once had the Soviet Union and its surroundings satellite countries of NATO, the complete subordination of the economy of the Russian Federation west.But James Baker (former Secretary of State) promised to M. Gorbachev that NATO would not expand to the East, if the Soviet Union would support the reunification of Germany. Conclusions should have been done long ago: West achieves its goals in any way. If the conditions of the contract signed by the EU and Yanukovych, then that just mean "promise"?
Believing in the best and trying to normalize the situation, Russia has consistently retreated. We gave the nod to the unification of Germany, withdrew their troops from Europe, the Baltic States have given - as a result of all our former satellites have become members of NATO and surrounded us on the perimeter. We almost "passed" Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya. The process stopped only in Syria, when we realized that we have nowhere to retreat - it is a transit route for a gas pipeline bypassing Russia. West, unlike us, Russian, manic in his perseverance. Are we talking about the peacefulness of western tops, looking at the war in these countries, and the emergence of the "Arab Spring" is already in Ukraine - very close to Russia? Aggravation of the situation was clearly chosen at the time of the Olympics, so we were not able to do anything. Russia did not even have time to enjoy their achievements, they do not have time to realize and in the world, they were just pushed out of the information field. Even at the critical moment of choice is our guide, believing in the peaceful outcome of the conflict, Yanukovych had persuaded to make concessions.Policy of double standards the United States has exhausted itself. Americans believe that they can wage war anywhere in the world. How is this different from the Nazis?
So, there is no place to retreat more: behind the Russian, Slavic and Orthodox world. It is interesting that even the New York Times noted the crucial nature of our response:"The message to the West is obvious: more than an inch to the East, the game is over".
What is the ultimate goal of the aggressive circles of the West? Reveal her wordsHenry Kissinger, former Secretary of State. Asked by a journalist what he thought about the events of the President of Russia in Ukraine, he replied: "I think he sees this as a dress rehearsal for what we wanted to do in Moscow. Regime change. And because all this is happening so close to the Sochi Games, his suspicions are only aggravated. ".Evromaydan - crooked, but still mirror the processes that are, or may go to Russia. And what was on Bolotnaya Square in 2011-12 city, only their rehearsal. West can be used to split in the Russian disgruntled middle class and Muslim separatists. The process can go from there. We have long grown clones pesto and leaders of the "opposition".
The most important thing for Russia, that the coming inevitable split with the West, in which all the masks were dropped and each showed himself for what he is -will and has in fact led to the consolidation of the internal Russian around his leadership.Possible economic sanctions from the West, will inevitably lead to an increase in tension:firstly,rearrangement of the elites and their interests in the country. President attempts to nationalize our elites, some of whom have too much interest in the West is already apparent from the very beginning of his "New Deal." Now he will get a full-scale objective prerequisites. Sit on two horses in the current situation, no one will. Leadership of the country will need strong vertical of power, which can not be a "fifth column."Second, it is likely a step- The rejection of "Trojan horse" -imposed from the outside of the liberal economic ideology, leading the country to catastrophe and the realization of its sovereign economic interests. If we really want to be strong, there is simply no other way.The current "stagnation" in the economy, as well as a final warning Evromaydan government liberalism brought the country to a standstill, try the other way!.
The third effect- Practically inevitable realignment of the country on their own strength, the development of domestic production and the gradual transfer of trade from the west to the east, Russia's rapprochement with China. If a country does not create the internal high-tech production, will not overcome the gap from the West in the field of electronics, pharmaceuticals, industry, our stagnation is inevitable. Possible supply constraints from the West willall prerequisites for conducting large-scale import substitution. There can be no economy without their technology, science and industry. Russia, being in a similar historical situation can go part way to industrialization of the USSR.
But the most profound mistake that can be made, if we simply replace supplies from the West to the supplier from China. When the Soviet Union was needed, he was able to create at the time nuclear weapons, ahead of the West in the creation of hydrogen, was able to create the most powerful rocket forces, nuclear power plants and submarines, the first exit into space. Not giving up, where necessary, from the purchase of foreign technology, we need to actively invest in their own, which is much more efficient. The first on such a path was Peter I, which enabled him to create the most powerful state in Europe, then in this way went the USSR, becoming the second pole of the world after the United States, and finally now this way is China, forcing the United States to the position of world leader. Russia's lagging behind in a number of sectors is the result of the pro-Western liberal economic policies that actually prohibit our development. What else you need to know the truth?Russian elites have to learn how to earn money on resource rents and sawing budget, and on the development of the country - the growth of industry and technology. We have over the last five years on average exported annually 57 billion. Calculate what could be done with that money! Can no longer rely only on the whim of "foreign investors" - you have to believe in their capabilities!
Finally,the fourth step- Active recovery power of our armed forces, which had already been set by the President. For too long we felt that we do not need a strong army - we supposedly do not have enemies. Heritage reforms penultimate Defense Minister can hardly be considered positive. But as he wrote the Emperor Alexander III: «Russia has no friends. They are afraid of our vast. We only have two reliable friend: Russian army and the Russian navy!».
The author read the opinions of many analysts, talking with both young people and mature people and their opinion is one: Russia's sovereignty is economic, and the President - just "our". This is evidenced by the growth of power ratings. We are tired of the humiliation. Today there is a unique historical situation for internal gluttony and the resurgence of Russia, and not only within the country but also far beyond its borders. Unipolar world is too dangerous - the world needs a center of western alternatives. In this connection it is appropriate to recall the phrase from the last interview with Slobodan Milosevic, the former president of Yugoslavia:"Russian! I now appeal to all the Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian people in the Balkans also consider Russian. Look at us and remember - you will do the same when you are divided and give slack.West - Chain mad dog clutched in your throat. Brethren, remember the fate of Yugoslavia! Do not let you do the same! ". We blinked Ukraine made a mistake, for example, constantly arranging "gas show," increasing the maximum gas prices, threatening to turn it off, etc. However, we are not so kind and Belarus. So you need not divide but unite, or we will crush.
Russia should use all methods for the peaceful resolution of the situation and to protect not only our brothers in the faith, and its geopolitical interests. Because otherwise, it will cause the final disappointment in the camp of his remaining friends and can leave hope for the growth of its geopolitical influence.
Our liberal lobby has done everything to bring the Russian economy to collapse. The most dangerous, that it is now in a state of neara recession which is quite predicted in the spring of 2013 as a result of the landing of the economy on the hard cash-starved, held in 2012-13g.g. under the brand name "companies to control inflation." Inflation for the year 2013 was 6,45%, the growth of the money supply to the city of 1.12.2013 - 6.4%. Is in such circumstances economic growth possible? What is the cause of the crisis, why there is no investment capital is exported, the balance of payments falls? Ruble redundant, as before, the 1998 strengthened, production costs, including taxes and the price of money is very high, monetary policy is extremely tough, domestic production has lost competitiveness - as a result of imports is increasing rapidly (per year 2013 - 344 billion dollars, an increase over the 2000 7.7 g time!), And our economy at the same time it is stagnant - it's just two and two are four. Our imports equivalent to about 14 million. jobs in Russia, despite the fact that the President set a task to create 25 million. For some reason we do not use the successful experience of the devaluation of Kazakhstan, which allowed them, unlike us to maintain high growth rates (7-5% with 2010 y). Overall drop in the stock market since the beginning of the year was about 20% (including by Ukrainian events) that will inevitably lead to crisis in the economy and the banking system. Russia has unlimited possibilities for continued growth with the rate of not less than 7% annually for decades. All that is happening now is the result of fatal mistakes in economic policy and the desire to consolidate the expansion of the liberal circles of foreign manufacturers in the country.
In the case of the immutability of the current economic course we are waiting for the rise in unemployment, the deterioration of economic indicators, the growing discontent of the people, and then a stone's throw to the repetition of the reincarnation of the Swamp area.But what is happening in Ukraine should make many here in Russia to reconsider many of their attitude to power and appreciate what they have.
The law of the market economy is very simple - either the economy is developing new markets and expanding or shrinking markets and the economy stagnates. Since the external expansion for Russia closed, but because of the stagnation of the world economy, it is hardly possible, and the inner we can not decide, came the collapse.Despite the constant assurances that in the next quarter, year, etc. we grow, the reasons for this are not visible. A significant part of the fundamentalspoint toward the further deterioration of the situation in the near future we are waiting for the recession, unless the Government did not take drastic measures.
The situation is similar in the world - the drivers of growth, despite the "positive outlook" not vidno.I.Vallerstayn, which became a classic in life, even in the middle of 90-x, when everything was fine, the system predicted the global economic crisis. According to then they projected, the current system there will be no more 50 years. Now a dead end system recognize many "gurus" - Larry Summers, P.Krugman, N. Roubini, who ruled in favor of Karl Marx, F. Fukuyama and others. According to George Soros, the stagnation in Europe can last 25 years.
Economic science in the liberal version is not the ultimate truth - it is only a political tool, which imposes a restriction on the development and preservation of relics of the periphery of the nucleus of the capitalist system. So the only option - to make the restructuring of the Russian economy in the national interest, throwing in the dustbin of history postulates about the ineffectiveness of the state and the omnipotence of the market, a balanced budget, the independence of the Central Bank to fight inflation by monetary contraction, the ban on the sovereign to issue the national currency, free movement of capital, parallel circulation of foreign currencies, etc. Experience of the USSR and China gives us an excellent example.
Russia has a great galaxy of economists, statesmen, you can use the luggage domestic pre-revolutionary ideas, such as S.F.Sharapov, D.Menedeleev and others. Wrote Russian economistK.V.Trubnikov (1891 year):"Propaganda we unilateral ...and false economic doctrines ... was close to the financial disorder ... with recurrent ... industrial, commercial and financial crises ..., Laissez-faire and Adam Smith, Adam Smith and laisser-faire ... is not it time for them to really get out of our company? ".
In Russia, there is a certain infrastructure proplachennyh of media institutions, websites, experts, etc. similar to that which is in the Republican Party in the United States and apparently controlled from there. This "network" in the United States P.Krugman described in the book "Credo liberal". These forces carried out a huge manipulation of public opinion, including middle-class elites and even the country's leadership, hampering the right steps. Bragging about the benefits of devaluation for the growth of import substitution - the answer will be obtained immediately.
Russia has become a supplier of raw materials and a market for global MNCs and China, it has lost the opportunity to issue the national currency. If we compare this situation with the Mongol yoke, then we pay indemnity west(In the form of interest and loss of profits) due to the huge volume of external debt, taken by our corporations and banks - about 732 billion dollars,placing a large part of their foreign exchange reserves abroad at low rates, and finally through the use of the dollar and the euro as a reserve currency, the internal circulation of the dollar and the euro (loans and deposits) as well as through the purchase of imported goods, leaving the entire surplus-value in them during abroad. What could be simpler?
Our elite still hold funds have legal addresses, real estate abroad, there are learning their children, families live - it leads to tremendous pressure and instrument of the desired west policy. Our foreign funds may be confiscated at any time.
The reaction of the West in the form of a promise of sanctions followed immediately. As the former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul"Russian companies and banks having business with the West will suffer as a result of ill-advised decisions Putin. Whether they will vote?".Secretary of State John Kerry threatened Russia with international sanctions until freezing accounts and trade embargo. G8 summit in Sochi is likely to be boycotted. Our markets depend crucially on speculative capital flows and, if desired, we can make a crisis within a few days, collapses the entire stock and currency markets (see. Response to the Ukrainian events, the war in Abkhazia in August, then fall 2008 year).
At the same time, the situation will soon confront a stalemate, while in the long run lose West and Russia will win. As Putin said:. "Of course, in today's world, where everything is interconnected, and all depend on each other, one way or another can cause some damage, but it will be a mutual damage. And you need to think about it ".Europe depends on our energy supply, and we have to import them. If the West will block accounts and impose trade restrictions, it will hit imports from Europe - and then close to a new crisis. Russia reoriented to trade with China, and will develop its economy, create your will or in an alternative payment system. If the assets will be confiscated, Russia can not repay their debts, to confiscate the assets of non-residents, and so we Europe does not want any trouble in trade with Russia, so it is first and foremost Germany occupied a relatively pragmatic approach. Lines of credit in the West can cover, but it will create a reason to lend funds from foreign reserves instead of placing them in the West. West can block the purchase of strategic components and equipment, but we can buy them in China. But if Russia, one of the largest trading partners, will curtail their purchases in Ukraine, the damage would be catastrophic for her. Going now to the deterioration of relations with Russia, the West has made a fatal mistake for their strategy. It will be completely self-defeating, and the West will be split. Tighter mistake commits Ukraine.
As long as we do not build a strong ruble zone, which, rather than the dollar, will work and our nation's capital, which will be assets elites to gain full sovereignty will be extremely difficult. If the Soviet Union would have its sovereign monetary system, he would never have become the EmpireN2 after the United States.
Leadership of the country should offer the people real, not paper modernization of the economy, which will allow us to get out of the economic deadlock. The country has a huge virtually undeveloped land, we in contrast to Europe does not need new markets - it is sufficient to deal with the development of internal infrastructure, land development, which will give a huge impetus to the development of the national economy.
We now recall the fate of the Byzantine Empire. West it consistently weakened by destroying the industrial and commercial independence, and then treacherously seized and sacked Constantinople, won part of its southern territories under the guise of the Crusades (see. Including a great movie "Fall of the Empire. Lesson of Byzantium "Archimandrite Tikhon (Shevkunova). Played a huge role and effectiveness of the fall of the Byzantine elite.
Since then, little has changed, the characters are the same - Europe, Byzantium and instead its spiritual and historical successor to the Russian. Just remember how great was the humiliation of a great state, when it gradually weakened, lost territory as its army was falling apart. And the current process, which for us started at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union is too close to the Byzantine. The fatal flaw that made Byzantium - the refusal of the Orthodox faith in favor of Catholicism. But now Russia is one (compare with Ukraine, which has a church and a west-east division), our people are increasingly drawn to the Orthodox faith (72% of the population according to 2008 year) - and this is the cornerstone on which we will build its revival .
Our confrontation with the West is the nature of civilization: we bearers of the Orthodox faith, culture and politics of the West has been far from a Christian character, we started other media, principles of organization, we have a successful experience with the West "on equal terms". Russian boots twice went to the center of Europe and 1812 1945 yy But the West does not tolerate any opponents. We do not want war, but Russia was an empire, and only such, it will be.
Admission to the WTO, which West unexpectedly blessed through problemsthe world economy,was the first stage of the final battle for the Russian market. The result is obvious we have sold even imported carrots, garlic and potatoes - as if this stuff we have no plants (!).The second stage of this struggle - a stagnation of the Russian economy, which now lead to a new crisis.
The key question is what the elites are willing to sacrifice the interests of the leadership to ensure the development of Russia? Can the government take more sovereignty, despite protests from the West to ensure the development of the country? The answer, we learn in the near future, the bill may go on for weeks and months.
What is happening on the importance of apparently akin to the path that choseHoly Great PrinceDmitry Donskoy, who dared to challenge the Mongol yoke. But as said, the Holy Prince Alexander Nevsky, "Who is to come to us with a sword, who perish by the sword." You can be sure that any overtures to us will not lead to a split and chaos, as in Ukraine, and to unite the government and the people, and improve the efficiency of the state. We do not need a script United States.Retreat nowhere else - behind Russia. But we have to act in a peaceful way - the best way to conquering sovereignty development of strong national economy, industry and science, which will create a new geopolitical center of gravity, in Vol. H. Among its historical partners, including Ukraine.
Выход есть: улучшение инвестиционного климата, разумное продолжение девальвации для повышения конкурентоспособности экономики, роста импортозамещения, предложение и реализация амбициозных инфраструктурных проектов (Сочи – отличный пример), снижения НДС и налога на прибыль для производственных компаний, введение прогрессивного налога на доходы физических лиц, целевое развитие отстающих отраслей, разумное смягчение денежной политики, рост монетизации и дедолларизации экономики, отказ от политики таргетирования инфляции в пользу таргетирования денежной массы и экономического роста, активное освоение территории страны. And most importantly - the rejection of liberal economic policies in favor of the policy of national sovereignty. In the words of A. Suvorov:<We Russian, we could overcome everything! ".