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Europe on the eve of change: Berlin clings to the Moscow straw

Europe on the eve of change: Berlin clings to the Moscow straw

Tags: Germany, Politics, Russia, Ukraine, International relations, Analytics, Europe, Sanctions, EU

Germany comes out of Ukrainian adventure

In the last article "What sentenced the BRICS to Ukraine?", We decided that the initiative of Russia to introduce UN peacekeeping forces into the line of separating opposing sides of the civil conflict in Ukraine could sharply change the situation around this country. However, this is only part of the truth. Another, much more important part of it is that the implementation of this initiative will seriously dilute Russian-European relations.

Hopes for this are all the more that, in fact, to Moscow's opinion that the civil conflict in Ukraine is over, Germany joined, personifying in this case all of Europe. And since over the past three days, there have been no refutations of German statements by France and major European officials, even Russia's opponents have to admit that Europe is ripe for defusing the relationship.

Over the past few days, a number of statements have been made by Germany on the issue of ending the conflict in Ukraine and supporting the initiative of Vladimir Putin. For example, 5 September German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel spoke in favor of the lifting of sanctions against Russia as the ceasefire was established in the Donbass and the removal of heavy weapons from the contact line. "There is no point in waiting for the fact that only after the Minsk agreement is implemented, we will remove the sanctions," the German foreign minister said at a foreign policy forum organized by the Social Democrats in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

According to him, cancellation of sanctions and assistance in the restoration of the east of Ukraine can be provided "as a reward" after the establishment of an armistice in the Donbass and the removal of heavy weapons from the contact line. Supported by Sigmar Gabriel and the initiative of Russia to place UN peacekeepers on the contact line in the Donbass. Gabriel's thesis that these steps of the EU could be the starting point for a new policy of detente towards Russia is also important. As Gabriel said on N-TV, European countries should not miss this opportunity: "It would be nice if we started talking about a new form of detente and eastern politics in Germany and Europe."

On the same day, Martin Schulz, Germany's candidate for the German Chancellery of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), said during the meeting with the country's leading bloggers that Berlin needed to build "reasonable relations" with Moscow: "Russia is a member of the UN Security Council with the right of veto, so we need to build a reasonable relationship with Russia, "Schulz said, adding that" a reasonable relationship with Russia does not mean that we should consider everything that Putin does right. " Let me remind you that earlier Schultz called belonging of the Crimea of ​​Russia a fait accompli.

Already 6 September at the opening of the international conference on conventional arms control German Foreign Minister Gabriel said that Europe should contribute to the restoration of the east of Ukraine after the establishment of the ceasefire and advocated the dispatch of a peacekeeping mission to the Donbass, stressing that it would be wrong to ignore this proposal. In this regard, Gabriel said that "Europe must offer to contribute to the restoration of the east of Ukraine." Thus, the German foreign minister supported the Russian proposal for peacekeepers for the second time in two days.

6 September, the proposal of Russia on the UN peacekeeping mission in Ukraine was supported also by the deputy official representative of the German government Ulrike Demmer. In her opinion, this is a step towards the lifting of sanctions, but complete cancellation is possible only after the implementation of the Minsk agreements. She also noted that Berlin "basically welcomes" the proposal of Russian President Vladimir Putin on peacekeepers.

In Europe, it is well aware that any peacekeepers can be located at the point of contact of the conflicting sides with the consent of these conflicting sides. Russia is not a party to this conflict in the southeast of Ukraine. Therefore, behind the support of the Russian proposal is a clear understanding of the consequences, either real federalization or the disintegration of Ukraine, to which it will lead. And if earlier Germany was against such tough scenarios of the future outskirts (by the way, both scenarios completely suit Russia, the question is only in time terms), now it is forced to support them.

The fact that relations between Russia and Europe can be relaxed is also evidenced by the words of Vygaudas Usackas, the EU's outgoing Ambassador to Russia, who said on 6 September that Brussels and Moscow entered a new stage of relations, and although disagreements still exist, and points of contact.

Without a doubt, the statements of German and European politicians mean the beginning of a new trend in European politics regarding the civil war in Ukraine. However, this is a significant change in Germany's position not only in Ukraine, but in general - in relation to Russia. Why is this possible?

The fact is that due to a number of events - this is Brexit, and the unbundling of the Swiss franc against the euro, and the new policy of Trump, and the latest sanctions of the US Congress towards Russia, and the continuing migration crisis, and most importantly - a) lack of economic resources and b) the fronts of the Eastern European member states that are breaking out of German influence have put before the European Union a number of serious strategic challenges that require their response.

To solve the existing problems, Europe first needs to discard the political ballast, that is, discard all unnecessary and unnecessary, which will only restrain maneuverability in making new and very tough decisions. Both Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia just refer to this very political EU ballast interfering with the EU. Today, against the backdrop of the identified problems, Europe needs cooperation with Russia simply in order to preserve its subjectivity.

What is the problem of the civil war in poor Ukraine for the political and economic elites of Europe before the threat of disintegration of the current EU integration model and the transition to a two-tiered structure of the EU? - This is a zero, emptiness, because in fact, there are very few chances for a problem-free divorce of the EU countries. And even if it is a good option, when the European countries come to an individual order to start ordering with migrants, there are no guarantees that European cities will not turn into flaming torches of violence.

There is one more nuance, why a new "eastern policy" of Germany became possible, which is already associated with personal interests. The case, as always, in Poland, which, under the influence of gingerbread from Trump in the spirit of Krylov's fable "The Fox and the Crow," has lost its banks and forgotten about its very recent history. It seems that Germany correctly understood the trends taking place on its eastern borders and will not philosophize slyly and seek new formulas for fighting the intensified Polishness. And then without the support of Moscow can not do.

Against the backdrop of this kind of political problems, energy security, including the uninterrupted supply of gas and oil, is becoming Germany's main problem in the coming years, since if the energy crisis is added to the political crisis, then the elites of the country will be swept away much further than their suburban dachas, and the arrival of nationally oriented forces in the form of leftists, Alternatives for Germany and some others to power will be predetermined, after which NATO and the EU in the current and even future form will simply have to be forgotten.

Therefore, Germany begins to behave correctly. If the European Armageddon begins, then the US (NATO) bases will become a refuge and support bases of Islamic militants, which have already been brought in sufficient quantities to the EU countries, and the only force that will help European countries cope with terror and violence, oddly enough, can only be peacekeeping troops of Russia. But this decision, undoubtedly, Moscow will have to weigh a thousand times. As Europe and Germany have rescued us dozens of times, but there are too few examples of real and equal political and economic interaction so that one can speak about the uniqueness of this step on the part of Russia - the "brothers" have already sufficed us.

Yuri Baranchik
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