The EU is trying to make the UK as much as possible to regret his decision to withdraw from the organization. Another instrument of pressure is the support of Irish nationalism - that is really potentially threatens the collapse of the UK. However, the European Union must understand that under the threat of dismemberment of will and other European countries.
The European Union continues to beat the UK's pain points, which launched the official withdrawal process in March. This time in the focus of Brussels was Northern Ireland (SI). The leaders of the "united Europe" countries declared that if the region separates from the United Kingdom and joins the Republic of Ireland (RI), it will automatically be included in the EU. Such an initiative on the agenda of the EU summit was made by the Prime Minister of RI Enda Kenny. The Europeans, of course, made a reservation that they did not try to influence the choice and opinion of Northern Ireland, who should independently decide their fate in a referendum. However, this is only a faint attempt to disguise its focus on exacerbating another British internal problem.
Ethnopolitical conflict in Northern Ireland began in the 60-ies of the last century because of a dispute between the British authorities and local nationalist organizations about the status of the region. The rebels demanded the separation of the SI from Britain and reunification with the Republic of Ireland. The conflict ended only in 1998 with the signing of the Belfast Agreement, as a result of which Northern Ireland remained part of the United Kingdom, but received self-government. Although the position of the nationalists remained quite strong, the majority in the local parliament was held by Unionists (supporters of the preservation of the SI in the British).
The conflict began to acquire a new breath after the referendum in the UK on the withdrawal from the European Union. The majority of the SI population (56 percent) spoke on a plebiscite for the preservation of EU membership. The firm attitude of the Government of Therese May to the inevitability of "breccia" contributed to the growth of popularity of the republican nationalist "Shinn Fein" and the Social Democratic and Workers' Party (SDRP) in the region. Republicans insist on the need to hold a plebiscite on the status of Northern Ireland in order to secede from the United Kingdom and create a united Ireland, emphasizing that only the North Irish can stay in the EU. Such aspirations are actively supported by the Republic of Ireland.
"Brekzit gave a serious impetus to the rise of nationalist sentiment in Northern Ireland. Before all this began to spin the story, the SI was a relatively small percentage of those who have spoken, even for the very holding of a referendum on unification with the Republic of Ireland. RI this question is not pedaling, and the mood in the region was calm, "- said the head of the newspaper VIEW research firm Insight Europe Andrey Kulikov.
Membership in the EU is a very important argument for the Northern Irish people. Politicians of the RI emphasize that a possible merger will contribute to the growth of the island's total GDP by 35,6 billion euros. But it's not just economic benefits, access to the EU's single market, use of the euro, and free movement around the "united Europe". An important issue is the border between the SI and the Republic of Ireland. The absence of barriers to its crossing was one of the most important points of the Belfast Agreement. However, after the breccist, it will become the boundary between Great Britain and the EU, which inevitably entails a tightening of control.
"Sinn Fein" after a successful performance in the local elections has launched a campaign for a referendum on the unification of the two Ireland. In the words of the leader of "Sinn Fein" Gary Adams, it is strange and incomprehensible, if one part of Ireland will be in the European Union, and the other - out of it. Therefore, in their opinion, it is necessary to hold a referendum to unite and remain part of the EU ", - he told the newspaper VIEW Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Alexander Chichin.
After the British referendum, for the first time since the division of Ireland, the unionists (primarily the Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party) failed to achieve the absolute majority of the mandates necessary for the formation of the government following the local parliamentary elections of 2 March 2017. It is too early to talk about the unconditional advantage of the supporters of the united Ireland and the inevitability of the withdrawal of the SI from the UK. If the parties do not manage to agree on any coalition before June 29 and create an office, then repeated elections will be held.
At the same time, the Northern Irish conflict for the first time since the signing of the Belfast Agreement came out sluggish state. Return to bloodshed times of the XX century in the region, of course, is unlikely. "They buried the hatchet. Perhaps only a political decision ", - said Alexander Chichin.
At the same time, the SI again becomes a source of instability for Great Britain. This instability is also fueled by the intensification of separatists in Scotland, who are also unhappy with the withdrawal of Britain from the EU and plan to hold in 2019 a referendum on the self-determination of the region. The ability of Northern Irish Republicans to successfully hold their plebiscite and make the SI part of a united Ireland (albeit in a more distant future) should not be underestimated. In addition, the government of Therese May, engrossed in breccia, early parliamentary elections and other problems, has so far shown unwillingness and unwillingness to pay special attention to this issue.
Of course, not the last role in this situation is played by the statements of the EU representatives. In addition to the veiled support of Irish nationalism, they have already stated that they are ready to facilitate the unhindered admission of Scotland to the EU if it leaves the UK. Brussels also decided to include the issue of Gibraltar in the agenda of negotiations on "breccia", while giving the right of veto to Spain, long claiming this overseas territory of Britain. Against this background, Argentina was thinking about filing claims to the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands.
"There is a game aimed at the United Kingdom to hold it in the European Union. All costs, even under a favorable scenario, much higher than the benefits of any new agreements reached. Therefore, the best thing that can happen - the abolition of the British exit from the EU process. And for the sake of the European Union can go even on the steps that in their eyes will look the means justifying good cause. The complexity of the solution of all these problems (Scotland, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar) as it binds the UK to the EU ", - said Andrey Kulikov.
"The European Union is now more than ever opposed to" brekzita ", especially in terms Terezy Mey. This will be a step towards the collapse of the European Union, if it will give way on the issue of "brekzita", - said Alexander Chichin.
Supporting separatism and fomenting territorial disputes, the European Union stands on "thin ice", because such tactics can backfire negatively to him.
This provokes conflicts between countries, and in the case of Spain and Britain - between the two NATO states. Moreover, such actions feed the separatists within the EU itself, which are many. Centrifugal moods are gaining momentum in Catalonia and do not subside in the Basque Country of Spain, they are being promoted in the northern regions of Italy, serious contradictions remain between Flemings and Walloons in Belgium, the flashes of separatism from German Bavaria and French Corsica are periodically shown, not to mention the ethnic conflicts in the Balkans . One of the factors hampering the growth of support for secessionists was the threat of Brussels, that in this case the separated region would be outside the EU. Making exceptions for Northern Ireland and Scotland, Europeans create a dangerous precedent that other "rebellious" regions of the countries of the "united Europe" will try to use.
"The theme of a united Ireland could provoke separatist sentiment in Catalonia. If Northern Ireland come from the UK, Catalonia did not hold, - says Alexander Chichin. - It may be a chain reaction. Then you can consider Belgium - Flemish and the Walloons, and Italy - "Northern League". "