The EU is trying to make the UK as much as possible to regret his decision to withdraw from the organization. Another instrument of pressure is the support of Irish nationalism - that is really potentially threatens the collapse of the UK. However, the European Union must understand that under the threat of dismemberment of will and other European countries.
The European Union continues to beat on painful points of Great Britain, which launched in March a formal process to exit the organization. This time was Northern Ireland (SI) in Brussels focus. Leaders of the "united Europe" claimed that, if the region is separated from the United Kingdom and will become part of the Republic of Ireland (RI), it will automatically be included in the EU. A similar initiative in the agenda of the EU summit, introduced the Prime Minister Enda Kenny RI. Europeans, of course, made the reservation that they do not try to influence the choice and opinion severoirlandtsev which should independently decide their own fate in a referendum. However, this is only a feeble attempt to disguise his focus on the next exacerbation of British domestic problems.
Ethno-political conflict in Northern Ireland began in 60-ies of the last century, because of a dispute between the British authorities and local nationalist organizations on the status of the region. The rebels demanded the SI separated from Britain and reunification with the Republic of Ireland. The conflict ended only in 1998, the signing of the Belfast Agreement, bringing Northern Ireland remained in the United Kingdom, however, has received government. Although the nationalist position remained relatively strong, the majority in the local parliament held Unionists (supporters SI conservation as part of the UK).
The conflict began to take a new breath after holding a referendum in the UK to leave the EU. Most of the population of the SI (56 percent) voted in the plebiscite for the preservation of EU membership. Firm intention of the Government of Terezy Mey on inevitability "brekzita" has boosted the popularity of the Republican nationalist "Sinn Fein" and the Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP) in the region. Republicans insist on the need to hold a plebiscite on the status of Northern Ireland, in order to achieve separation from the United Kingdom and Ireland to create a unified, emphasizing the fact that the only way severoirlandtsa be able to stay in the EU. Are their aspirations actively supports the Republic of Ireland.
"Brekzit gave a serious impetus to the rise of nationalist sentiment in Northern Ireland. Before all this began to spin the story, the SI was a relatively small percentage of those who have spoken, even for the very holding of a referendum on unification with the Republic of Ireland. RI this question is not pedaling, and the mood in the region was calm, "- said the head of the newspaper VIEW research firm Insight Europe Andrey Kulikov.
EU membership is a very important argument for the North Irish. RI policies stress that a possible merger will boost the total GDP of the island billion euros 35,6. But it is not only economic benefits, maintaining access to the single European market, the use of the euro and the free movement of "united Europe". The important point is the issue of the boundary between the SI and the Republic of Ireland. Absence of barriers to its intersection was one of the most important points of the Belfast Agreement. However, after "brekzita" it will border the UK and the EU, which would inevitably lead to tighter control.
"Sinn Fein" after a successful performance in the local elections has launched a campaign for a referendum on the unification of the two Ireland. In the words of the leader of "Sinn Fein" Gary Adams, it is strange and incomprehensible, if one part of Ireland will be in the European Union, and the other - out of it. Therefore, in their opinion, it is necessary to hold a referendum to unite and remain part of the EU ", - he told the newspaper VIEW Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Alexander Chichin.
After the British referendum, for the first time since the partition of Ireland Unionists (mostly Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party) could not achieve an absolute majority of seats needed to form a government, as a result of local parliamentary elections in March 2 2017 years. Talk about the unconditional superiority of supporters united Ireland and the inevitability of the SI output from the UK while, however, too early. If the parties fail to agree to 29 June on a coalition and create a cabinet that will be held another election.
At the same time, the Northern Irish conflict for the first time since the signing of the Belfast Agreement came out sluggish state. Return to bloodshed times of the XX century in the region, of course, is unlikely. "They buried the hatchet. Perhaps only a political decision ", - said Alexander Chichin.
However SI again becomes a source of instability for the UK. This instability also fuels the activation of separatists in Scotland, which are also unhappy with the release of the UK and EU are planning to hold in 2019, the referendum on self-determination for the region. Northern Irish republicans ability to successfully carry out a plebiscite and make SI part of a unified Ireland (albeit in the longer term) should not be underestimated. In addition, the government Terezy Mey absorbed "brekzitom" early parliamentary elections and other issues, while demonstrating unwillingness and reluctance to give this issue more attention.
Of course, the important role played by the European Union and statements redstaviteley in this situation. In addition to the veiled support of Irish nationalism they had managed to declare that they are ready to promote the smooth reception of Scotland in the EU, if it will come out of the UK. Brussels also decided to include the issue of Gibraltar in the agenda of talks on "brekzitu", providing at the same veto power Spain, claiming for a long time on this overseas territory of Britain. Against this background, Claims of the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands, Argentina thought.
"There is a game aimed at the United Kingdom to hold it in the European Union. All costs, even under a favorable scenario, much higher than the benefits of any new agreements reached. Therefore, the best thing that can happen - the abolition of the British exit from the EU process. And for the sake of the European Union can go even on the steps that in their eyes will look the means justifying good cause. The complexity of the solution of all these problems (Scotland, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar) as it binds the UK to the EU ", - said Andrey Kulikov.
"The European Union is now more than ever opposed to" brekzita ", especially in terms Terezy Mey. This will be a step towards the collapse of the European Union, if it will give way on the issue of "brekzita", - said Alexander Chichin.
Supporting separatism and fomenting territorial disputes, the European Union stands on "thin ice", because such tactics can backfire negatively to him.
This provokes conflicts between countries, as in the case of Spain and the UK - between two NATO countries. Moreover, such actions are fed separatists within the European Union, which are many. Centrifugal mood is actively gaining momentum in Catalonia and do not cease in the Basque Country in Spain, unwind in the northern regions of Italy, there are serious contradictions between Flemings and Walloons in Belgium, periodically demonstrate outbreaks of separatism German Bavaria and the French Corsica, not to mention the ethnic conflicts in the Balkans . One of the factors limiting the growth of support for secession is Brussels threat, in this case, the separated area is outside the EU. Making the same exception for Northern Ireland and Scotland, the Europeans set a dangerous precedent, which will try to take advantage of other "rebel" foreign regions "united Europe".
"The theme of a united Ireland could provoke separatist sentiment in Catalonia. If Northern Ireland come from the UK, Catalonia did not hold, - says Alexander Chichin. - It may be a chain reaction. Then you can consider Belgium - Flemish and the Walloons, and Italy - "Northern League". "