Never before elections in France did not have such a big deal. For the first time the result of the presidential election in this country could have a serious impact on world affairs. However, this will only happen if 25-m becomes president Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. A chance to win they have, but as long as they need to win the first round, which will be held April 23.
In France, there were five republics (ie, constitutions and principles of power devices) - and most of the time the presidents elected by the parliament.
Direct elections only began in 1959-m - when the President was elected de Gaulle. These were landmark elections - including because after a few years, France has lost not only its colonies, but also Algeria, which was considered by the Department of the Republic. Equally epoch-making were the only direct presidential elections, which took place before that - when in 1848-m Louis Bonaparte was elected president of the republic, and three years later proclaimed himself emperor.
It is clear that the third Napoleon and de Gaulle are the most powerful figures in the modern, post Napoleonic history of France, but also present a vote may be on a par with these elections. In the event that the president will be a representative counterelite. Of the four candidates with chances to win the elections, these two - Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.
If 65-year-old Jean-Luc Mélenchon proposes to do away with the fifth republic - adopting a new constitution and limiting the president's powers by abolishing the "presidential monarchy" - the 48-year-old Le Pen does not call for a change in the power system. But both of them are openly anti-system, antielitnymi candidates. They are categorically unacceptable for the French elite - officially bipartisan, but in reality non-partisan.
Socialists and Gaullists have long been turned into two camps just one ruling bureaucracy - a system, in essence, no different from the American way of life with its bipartisan struggle Nanai boys. The difference between the policies of the last two presidents (Socialist Hollande and Sarkozy's Gaullist), of course, there is, but it is absolutely not fundamental for ordinary Frenchmen. In recent years, the ruling elites definitively discredited, and the European integration process, ie globalization, also stressed the absolute lack of independence and the role of systemic unprincipled politicians.
That is, in France, the same process as in other European countries - the erosion of the powers of the nation state reveals the poverty of the national elite, its full rebirth in supranational. Voters' discontent leads to erosion of the entire party system, the emergence of new, in fact, growing from below, from the people, political parties and movements - both in Italy and Spain - or a sharp increase in the popularity of those who are not afraid to speak honestly about the existing problems, those who for decades persecuted as "marginal" or "populist".
Exactly the same process is taking place in Anglo-Saxon countries - only there it has led to "Breksitu" and winning Trump, and themselves losers of the elite are trying to take control of both unfavorable to them the process (exit the UK from the EU), and configured for independent policy of the rulers (the case Trump).
So that Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon challenge not only the French elite, but the entire global Atlantic establishment that controls the West.
This is manifested even in the fact that they are talking about foreign policy - and left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen patriot offer a way out of the EU and NATO. And it's hard to call it a foreign policy issues - after all, European integration aims at the elimination of national states, so we are talking about national sovereignty.
whether France will remain independent or not? Yes, in case of victory of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen France did not immediately leave the EU - more than that, a referendum on the EU, which promises to Marin, may well win the supporters of continued membership in the French league. But the fact of the victory of the anti-globalization candidate will have a huge impact on the whole world.
Firstly, a non-systemic policy victory in one of the five great powers (France - a member of the UN Security Council and nuclear power) confirm the entire project depth of the crisis of Atlantic globalization. After Brexit and winning Trump, who have been strongly required by national elites, rebellion and even France finally disintegrates single Atlantic West.
Second, the victory of Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon will be a serious blow to the European Union. Now it's hard to imagine the reaction of Germany, the locomotive and the center of European integration, to win in France, the EU enemy - and, moreover, it is clear that the result of the French elections will have an impact on the September vote in the Federal Republic of Germany, in the elections to the Bundestag. The rise in popularity Euro-skeptics - "Alternative for Germany" - will be provided.
The European Union will not fall apart, but for the sake of saving it will either move to a policy of "two-speed" (in fact, to distinguish two of the European Union - the main, the "real", and the external, peripheral) or severely restrict the Brussels powers to national governments, that is to decentralize completely contrary to all logic Atlantic European integration project.
Third, the rise to power of President antiatlanticheskogo Francocentric and may lead to a change in the whole European security architecture. Amid UK from the EU and attempts to weaken the Trump confrontation with Russia significantly in Europe, France can be initiated not only reconciliation with Russia, but also in Europe from the Atlantic to turn into Eurasia and building a new axis. Paris - Moscow, Paris - Berlin - Moscow or Paris - Berlin - Moscow - Beijing.
Of course, in order to even approach this little one victory in the elections, but given that France had always been the legislator's political fashion in Europe, the role of master of the Elysee Palace should not be overestimated.
Yes, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, even winning the elections, will be significantly limited in the freedom of action - in June in France will hold parliamentary elections and not the National Front or the more "Unconquered France" will not be able to get a majority in the National Assembly. And that means that the new president will have no government. Still, its effect on the domestic and foreign policy of France is great.
But all this will be determined 7 May, and now, this Sunday, April 23, will host the first round of presidential elections. None of the candidates attains 11 50 percent of the vote - and the two have scored more than any challenger will be released in the second round.
Now the chances of it have four candidates - except Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon can pass on a protege of establishment and Atlanticist Emmanuel Macron, and former Prime Minister Fransua Fiyon. The most probable pair of finalists, if you focus on opinion polls data - Le Pen and Macron. They are in the area 23-25 percent. In Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Fillon - around 19-20 percent.
But polls can be wrong, both deliberately and accidentally. So the degree of mobilization of voters in various different candidates - above all it is at the Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Not to mention the fact that the number of undecided is extremely large, and they will affect the outcome of the final TV debate, which took place on Thursday evening.
So that the final pair may be the most unexpected - however, the presence in it Marin Le Pen is virtually guaranteed. And then will come a terrible two weeks of media and political attacks on the leader of the National Front. And when paired with her will be Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the French political system is simply "hang".