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The main intrigue of modernity is who's next?

Today it is obvious that "the victory of the West in the Cold War" is just flattering compliments of political scientists to the "head of the planet". The ruling classes of the West already understand that the USSR was only the first victim of the systemic crisis of the First World. First, Z. Brzezinski made this conclusion for the situation in the US, and recently V. Schaeuble also assessed the situation in the European Union similarly. And since Western social scientists do not understand how to overcome this crisis, it is obvious that the USSR is unlikely to remain its only victim.

Therefore, the first intrigue of our time - who will be next? There are two candidates: the US and the European Union. And the United States in comparison with the European Union has much more chances to repeat the fate of the USSR. The fact is that the European ruling classes are traditionally much more cautious in comparison with the American establishment, therefore they are less inclined to make hasty decisions.

The situation in the US demonstrates, first and foremost, the split of the ruling class into parts that are close in their weight category. This blocks the adoption of serious decisions. In the European Union, the split of the ruling classes is already taking place. But it passes through the peripheral territories - Poland and Hungary, and in them the dissenters do not fully control the ruling classes. And potentially the most dangerous schismatic, England, the European Union voluntarily leaves: in conditions of global instability, the English ruling class decided that the status of a junior partner of America is more beneficial than the status of the fifth wheel in the European Union.

The EU has the opportunity to remove a significant part of the crisis-induced tension by returning to the previous form of unification - the Common Market. This will avoid serious shocks. The US is also a union of states. But the states are still not quite full-fledged states - they do not have institutions that are important for independent existence. Therefore, if the crisis leads to a split in the country, then its fragments will be similar in quality to the wreckage of the USSR.

According to some estimates, the collapse of the United States will lead to a fall in the standard of living of Americans by 60%. Today America lives on a socialist model - Washington is leveling the standard of living on the territory of the country, redistributing part of the wealth of the rich in favor of the poor. The experience of the USSR shows that in the event of an economic collapse, the regions first stop paying taxes to the center. The states will also act. To limit the fall in the standard of living, at least 20-25%, the rich states will no longer transfer taxes to Washington. As a result, in the poor states, the standard of living will fall not by 60%, but by 80-90%. And the population will rush into the rich states, and a well-armed population. So avoiding a full-scale civil war will be very difficult.

To this we need to add a bouquet of social and ethnic problems. They are even more in comparison with the bouquet available in the USSR. And they are much harder. For example, in the USSR, the acuteness of ethnic conflicts was radically reduced by a split along the borders of the republics, regions, and regions that largely coincided with ethnic boundaries. And in the United States, these borders pass through the city streets.

American society is split not only by ethnicity. At least the depths of schisms are between rich and poor, urban and rural residents. But the most dangerous is the ideological split - more than half of Americans have a religious worldview. For comparison: in most EU countries the religious world view is only for 2-3% of the indigenous population. This means that for half of American society the other half are nonhumans. And the bacchanalia of cruelty that erupted as a result of the 2005 flood in New Orleans is a picture of the future collapse of the United States.

Political scientists do not see this prospect, because they are fascinated by the picture of power and efficiency of the American economy. It can be recalled that in the same way they did not see the possibility of a rapid collapse of the USSR, because they were fascinated by the picture of the power and efficiency of the Soviet political system. Today it is obvious that the US political system in terms of its efficiency is already a "cart of the past". This understanding and split the establishment.

In the situation with the economy, the picture is even more sad. Yes, the American economy is perhaps the most effective in the world. But only in terms of profitability. And the problem of American society is that the American state is extremely inefficient in terms of using national income. In this sense, it is a complete analogue of the Soviet state. In it, the economy was also extremely effective, because only an extremely efficient economy is capable of using the order of 40% of the country's GDP for the needs of the military-industrial complex for decades.

This, by the way, is not understood by liberal economists. Because they simply do not understand the productive activities. Their idea of ​​the inefficiency of the Soviet economy is based on the fact of the bankruptcy of the USSR. But any inefficiency can ruin both the creation of income and its use. At the same time, the effective creation of a national income does not necessarily automatically provide for its effective use. Because in the state the income is created by one people, and they spend absolutely others.

And this is almost the most dangerous problem of the US: state institutions are extremely ineffective in managing public resources, both in terms of their formation, and in terms of their use. The last election campaign demonstrated the cause of this imbalance: the degradation of the US ruling class. And in the process of degradation of the establishment has already lowered even below the level of the Soviet ruling class of the 80-s. In fact, he has become intellectually impotent and has become aroused ethically.

It is because of this that the social sphere is rapidly breaking down in the United States. And it is the foundation of any society. Because any society is an association of people for the joint achievement, first of all, of common goals of a social nature: ensuring security, creating a common infrastructure, ensuring quality of life, etc.

The reason for the degradation of the ruling classes of the USSR and the USA is identical - the bacchanalia of greed. She distorted the management, which led to the formation of supercritical imbalances in society. Their elimination according to the model of the explosion destroyed the USSR. And likewise, most likely, will destroy the United States. And the difference between Soviet and American stories is that the USSR destroyed the greed of the military-industrial complex, and America - the greed of the financial system. In this respect, the activity of the European Union looks much more effective. Accordingly, does not carry too much threat.

Imbalances in both cases were formed in the form of "administrative scissors". In the process of its development, the society is constantly becoming more complicated, therefore, to maintain the effectiveness of management, it requires a continuous improvement in the quality of its intellectual support. And since the authorities of both countries have stopped all studies of social development, the process of degrading social science began. Its natural consequence was the launching of the process of degradation of the intellectual environment of power. As both societies continued to develop, scissors began to form between the increase in the level of complexity of the organization of society and the decline in the quality of intellectual support for the authorities. And the current political battles show that the "scissors" have already reached a supercritical scale. What is happening today clearly demonstrates the complete inadequacy of power both in domestic and foreign policy.

Alas, since America is run by politicians, the effectiveness of American business does not play any role for the fate of the country. Moreover, at first the transfer of production to developing countries, and then the speculative bacchanalia, taught him to easy money. As a result, it significantly spoiled his breed. So, American business is unlikely to save the US - in the next 2-3 years they will repeat the fate of the USSR.


This material was prepared within the framework of the joint project of 4teller and Omega-Technologies. The goal of the joint project is to improve the original predictive method used in the new technology.

A source: Comte

Tags: USA, EU, USSR, Politics, Analytics, Crisis, Economics