Since hitting US cruise missiles on the Syrian air base year and a half weeks. During this time, I had drawn and practically without consequences dissolve the North Korean crisis. Together these events with many others make it possible to talk about a new configuration of forces between the three major world geopolitical players - the US, Russia and China.
The material from the 8 April "Trying to US war against Syria, and not only against Syria," we assume that there are two main versions of the impact of Trump on Syria: "The first - deep state broke Trump. Mainly through in-law Trump Jared Kushner (our estimate), which together with an advisor Trump National Security General Herbert McMaster removed Steve Bennona from the National Security Council who opposed the attack on Syria, bringing Trump will it now ( " deep state "), an obedient puppet. The second version is that the main reason for the attack served as the political situation in the United States, where opponents are finally driven into a corner of Donald Trump. "
And was chosen as a second corresponding to the truth: "This step is reallya)Trump seriously pushed by impeachment;b)allowed him time to enlist the support of the "deep state", while losing their voters,at)so it needs to get a break. "
Developments, especially never held US conflict with North Korea, has shown not only the fidelity of this assumption, but allows you to do a number of other important findings.
Division of the world for three: the US, Russia, China
Firstly, a blow to Syria Trump decided his main goal - prevention of impeachment, the question of which was a matter of just two to three weeks. Moreover, he showed the deep state that the tasks facing the United States, I emphasize - to the US, but not in front of a world government, it can be a much better deal than the team supranational hawks led by Clinton, without entering into the nuclear clinch with two other world superpowers. Trump, of course, showman, but he knows his business well and his tactics shows that it gives results.
Deep state for the time lost trumps Trump got so he needs a break, that was already evident during the course of the conflict with North Korea and now can more easily solve both internal and external problems.
Second, is now clear way how Trump is going to solve the problem - at the expense of building a two-tier configuration: if in some region of the world has a problem, her someone creates, it must address the one world superpower or regional, which is responsible for this region. And this way of solving the problem, he has made it clear China on North Korea's example - because the problems are created by North Korea, it is the task of the Beijing solve this problem, if it wants Washington to its respected and not interfered himself, because otherwise, China will not be affected zone.
Beijing is not considered possible to resist such US tactics and not only took the problem of North Korea itself by taking a number of very clear leadership in Pyongyang steps (Army focus on the border with North Korea, the lack of tight public reaction to the US rhetoric, frozen supplies of oil and petroleum products, refusal to buy North Korean coal and suspension of air travel), but also refrained from voting in the UN on Syria, where Russia alone, left alone in the traditional, vetoed. China also abstained, like several other countries, including Russia's allies in the CSTO, against the conviction of US action in Syria as an aggression that was supported only by Russia and Iran.
And this decision is also clear, based on the Chinese logic: During the vote in the UN Security Council, China abstained, "do not support our position on Syria."China's decision to abstain from voting on a draft UN Security Council resolution on Syria, proposed by Washington, London and Paris, is" a huge victory "US President Donald Trump"- White House spokesman Shon Spayser. To understand what is happening, it is necessary to clarify the specifics of the Chinese world view, then it becomes clear why Putin has firmly defended our ally, being able to strengthen their position, while China passed.
China has traditionally feels "Middle Empire", actually realizing itself as the only full-fledged state in a sea of barbarians. This is not surprising, since it for centuries, until the end of 18, 19 start centuries actually been in this situation. Country, in the representation of the Chinese people, surrounded by barbarians varying degrees of civilization, that is. e. involvement in the Chinese civilization. They were all in varying degrees depending on the Chinese emperor. Opium War and the subsequent civil war, smoothly peretokshie Japanese aggression that struck the state. However, the mentality, which is formed for thousands of years, is not changed for a hundred years.
By the way, precisely because of the Chinese people, unlike the Japanese, and they have not learned to play the inter-imperialist contradictions, maintaining sovereignty. They have no experience of full diplomatic relations, that is. because they involve communication with potentially equal adversary / ally. They may not be allies in our sense of the word, that is. because they can not take into account the long-term interests of other countries and the consequences of their actions in this regard ... For China, playing on his side, he was "waiting for the river when proplyvut corpses of enemies." For them the main thing: to delay the time of direct confrontation with the United States to win a couple of decades of peaceful development.
The international aspect of the incident to the Chinese simply catastrophic. Very many countries China was perceived as one of the centers of power to which we can rely in opposition to the hegemony of the United States. Pakistan, the Philippines, and many others, build its policy based on this "immutable" fact. Now, the international authority of China will fall sharply.Previously China opposed the United States in the group of countries seeking to ensure its sovereignty, but now for an indefinite term, he remained in "splendid" alone».
There are objective reasons for which, according to experts, the conflict over North Korea's practically impossible, "the conflict over North Korea is unique - there is there is a high threat level, but the low probability of the beginning of a real war. On the Korean Peninsula, all hate each other, exchanging threats (the phrase "respond to insults with nuclear annihilation" regularly repeated official statements of North Korean officials), but is not ready to put the first blow at the same time none of the parties.
North Korea's elite understands that any war on the Korean Peninsula over the capture of Pyongyang, and then farewell to a beautiful life. The Americans, the Japanese and the South Koreans, in turn, understand that the price of taking Pyongyang would be extremely high, and it is not even only in military losses to be incurred by the allies in the destruction of millions and (unlike Saddam Hussein) motivated by the North Korean army.
And not only in the nuclear contamination. Firstly, Seoul will not be - in the event of war South Korean capital, which is in 50 kilometers from the border, to bulldoze the North Korean long-range artillery. Second, what to do with the defeated North Korea? Integrated into the South? Experts claim that the cost of even the DPRK the peaceful reintegration of the Republic of Korea is several South Korean GDP, and in the case of the war-torn North price increases further.
Thus, China has outlined its position and the way in which he understands the realization of their national interests and the strategic partnership with Russia. Therefore, if Russia will clearly defend its national interests - not at the expense, of course, the interests of our eastern neighbor, but by building a reasonable, rational and long-term relationships in the triangle of Russia-US-PRC, no one should be offended.
Post-Soviet border states need to think
The understanding of the fact that the United States at the Trump recognize China for its area of interest, it follows that the same area of interest, including the post-Soviet space, and is recognized by Russia. Trump is willing to accept Putin as the same as him, the local sheriff. A sheriffs, as we know, the problem of local Indians do not care. Therefore indicative Tillerson response to questions about the European destiny of Ukraine - "it's not our problem."
Indicative and the Vatican reaction to new sanctions against Russia, which proposed the introduction of British Foreign Secretary Johnson - at a meeting in Italy, these proposals have been blocked, including numbers and because the United States they did not insist, as before, and the president of Italy (Traditional a protege of the Vatican) on the same day went to Moscow to report to. As soon as the new US disposition toward Russia has become clear to Merkel, she immediately decided to go to Russia to agree on many things: the relations Germany and Russia, a new division of Europe, the conditions of the former "Nenko" section and how to minimize the "hit" Germany money. And then there's and Turkey marked its transformation prospects "sultanate" with all the attendant for the European "egegey community." It's simple.
Agreement Russia and the United States, of course, is not very satisfied with certain circles in Britain, who are willing to do everything possible to prevent the agreements between the two superpowers and due to its methods of diplomacy to continue their play off competently across the spectrum of global issues. In this regard, a very dangerous and untimely step looks pro-British decision of the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev on the transition to the Latin alphabet. Elbasy mistake can be costly. Russian blogosphere issued a verdict that decision.
As noted by Aleksey Zhivov, "Kazakhs live in large numbers in Russia. Kazakhs to a certain extent are Russia and China. Finally, the Kazakhs are the latest Russian civilization abroad before the impending plague of medieval religious radical. Because even harder to understand how to pass an economic and geo-political integration between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan as Kazakhstan moves to Latin. Latin will abruptly Ukrainian Bandera. Changing the alphabet - is final and irreversible cultural gap, which will be followed and the worst events. "
An even tougher position is Herman Sadullayev: "The message the leadership of Kazakhstan sent to the public that most political step and gesture obscenely simple: look, we are not with Russia, which is an outcast, a defender of Assad, Iran and North Korea's ally, the occupier of eastern Ukraine and general bad guy, we are with you, with the civilized world community, with Turkey, and the West, of course, with the United States. We even Latin at introducing to your soldiers have been easier to read on the signs Chaihana our hospitable restaurants where NATO base stand on our land. They behave as if Russia does not already exist. And are ready to open the hospitable duty-free customs and visa-free border crossing points at the Kazakh-Ukrainian border.
Why Chinese do not go to Latin? The Chinese Communist Party does not allow? And the Japanese, the most Westernized and occupied America - why they retain their complex characters? Because the culture - it is the last stronghold. This is a chance for a great future, even if you are now backward periphery. China has retained its culture and in a few decades transformed from a country impoverished potogonki sverhprogressa. And sooner or later Japan stryahnot US military bases. Until he lost everything - nothing is lost. Until the lost language, culture, symbols - the people alive. His independence is a matter of time.
Kazakhstan decided to accept it, decided to take the role of a backward periphery, and in symbolic terms. So Kazakhstan deprives himself of hope for the future. It could become the center of Eurasian civilization (along with Russia), and become a third-rate cultural colony of the Great Latin West, Eternal Rome. This is a betrayal of yourself, your people, your future. You can "integrate" - that is, to become an American third grade. A can remain Russian, Chechen, Karel, Kazakh single, highest grade. For this we need to preserve, not to nullify their culture, their tradition. Abandoning the Cyrillic alphabet, Kazakhstan clears their common history with Russia, Russian history and Soviet history. "
It also follows that the decision of the Belarusian authorities not to pursue a relationship with Russia into a dead end and not to leave the Union State, EurAsEC and CSTO not to block the activity was very good. Nevertheless, the existing economic model of oil offshore in urgent need of restructuring, as it will operate for a maximum two-three years. And if it is changed, then exactly to 2020 year, when the next presidential election, Belarus will be again be held in the country in a very difficult economic situation, which could provoke another conflict with Russia.
Therefore, those asking questions that the President of Belarus made to the heads of EEAS meeting in Bishkek, concerning the development of the organization - is very correct. Only in Russia today there is a very strong argument - you should start with themselves, shows how to perform the agreement, and only then, on this basis to make proposals on the way forward.
Nazarbayev, of course, behaves more cleverly than Lukashenko - he created the necessary base of support in Britain and relies on her help, while the Belarusian leader periodically goes to the frontal conflict with Moscow, which, of course, naturally loses. Nevertheless, Trump policy leaves less and less space for anti-Russian in the post-Fronde. This means that Moscow is building EAEC can more clearly and firmly defend its national interests, not really looking at what they think the local elites. And the first example of this new balance of power will be the Ukraine. Who dares to go second - Kazakhstan or Belarus - time will tell.
According to experts, "we are witnessing an interesting theatrical production designed to strengthen the power of the Trump in the US. Both Russia and China him in this, almost not noticeable, play along. Attack "Tomahawks" in Syria under false pretenses, and the nomination of the US Navy to the Korean peninsula, using the first available under the arm a reason - it acts the same play, called, as I said, to strengthen the power of the Trump in the United States and its credibility among allies.
I think that Trump and in a recent conversation with the Chinese leader Xi, and through Tillerson in Moscow (at a meeting with Putin) gave interesting for Russia and China's proposals on the list of zones of influence, Syria and Ukraine on trade (it is China important) at the same time asked to help consolidate his power in the United States that he is extremely, I would even say vital for his plans to strengthen the US economy.
So all in my opinion, is going according to the plan agreed upon by Washington in Moscow and Beijing. Moscow important decision on Ukraine and Syria. So what are waiting for the imminent development of events in Ukraine and Syria. China - Trade and the admission of Chinese goods to the European and US markets. Well, Trump - control of the US and allies in Europe and Asia, coupled with the economic strengthening of America due to the development of the internal, real and production. The children divided the world, and each side will gradually clear up by themselves their part. "
Trump coped with internal Fronde. He's ready for a big deal with Russia and China. This scenario - high probability division of the world for three - we had already predicted in one of analytical articles. And this will be the game is not a zero-sum. The world has become too small to win one at the expense of others. Or win all or none.