Since hitting US cruise missiles on the Syrian air base year and a half weeks. During this time, I had drawn and practically without consequences dissolve the North Korean crisis. Together these events with many others make it possible to talk about a new configuration of forces between the three major world geopolitical players - the US, Russia and China.
In the material from 8 April "Attempt of the US war against Syria and not only against Syria" we assumed that there are two main versions of Trump's blow to Syria: "The first - a deep state broke Trump. Mostly through Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner (this is our assessment), which, together with Trump's national security adviser, General Herbert McMaster, removed Steve Bennon from the National Security Council, who opposed the attack on Syria, which would now result in him (" deep state ") obedient puppet. The second version is that the main reason for the attack was the domestic political situation in the US, where opponents finally drove Donald Trump into a corner. "
And was chosen as a second corresponding to the truth: "This step is reallya)Trump seriously pushed by impeachment;b)allowed him time to enlist the support of the "deep state", while losing their voters,at)so it needs to get a break. "
Developments, especially never held US conflict with North Korea, has shown not only the fidelity of this assumption, but allows you to do a number of other important findings.
Division of the world for three: the US, Russia, China
Firstly, a blow to Syria Trump decided his main goal - prevention of impeachment, the question of which was a matter of just two to three weeks. Moreover, he showed the deep state that the tasks facing the United States, I emphasize - to the US, but not in front of a world government, it can be a much better deal than the team supranational hawks led by Clinton, without entering into the nuclear clinch with two other world superpowers. Trump, of course, showman, but he knows his business well and his tactics shows that it gives results.
Deep state for the time lost trumps Trump got so he needs a break, that was already evident during the course of the conflict with North Korea and now can more easily solve both internal and external problems.
Second, is now clear way how Trump is going to solve the problem - at the expense of building a two-tier configuration: if in some region of the world has a problem, her someone creates, it must address the one world superpower or regional, which is responsible for this region. And this way of solving the problem, he has made it clear China on North Korea's example - because the problems are created by North Korea, it is the task of the Beijing solve this problem, if it wants Washington to its respected and not interfered himself, because otherwise, China will not be affected zone.
Beijing did not consider it possible to resist such tactics of the US and not only took the DPRK's problem by undertaking a number of steps quite understandable to Pyongyang's leadership (the army's concentration on the border with the DPRK, the absence of a rigid public reaction to US rhetoric, the freezing of oil and oil products supplies, the refusal to buy North Korean coal and suspension of flights), but abstaining in the UN vote on Syria, where only Russia, left in traditional loneliness, vetoed. Also, China abstained, as did a number of other countries, including Russia's allies in the CSTO, against condemning the US actions in Syria as aggression, which was supported only by Russia and Iran.
And this decision is also clear, based on the Chinese logic: During the vote in the UN Security Council, China abstained, "do not support our position on Syria."China's decision to abstain from voting on a draft UN Security Council resolution on Syria, proposed by Washington, London and Paris, is" a huge victory "US President Donald Trump"- White House spokesman Shon Spayser. To understand what is happening, it is necessary to clarify the specifics of the Chinese world view, then it becomes clear why Putin has firmly defended our ally, being able to strengthen their position, while China passed.
China traditionally feels itself to be a "Middle Empire", in fact realizing itself as the only full-fledged state in the barbarian sea. This is not surprising, since it was actually in this situation for centuries, until the end of 18, the beginning of 19 centuries. The country, in the view of the Chinese, was surrounded by barbarians of varying degrees of civilization, i.e., involvement in Chinese civilization. They all were in varying degrees of dependence on the Chinese emperor. Opium wars and subsequent civil wars, smoothly flowing into the aggression of Japan, brought down this state. However, the mentality that has been forming for millennia does not change over a hundred years.
By the way, it is because of this that the Chinese, unlike the Japanese, have not yet learned to play on inter-imperialist contradictions, preserving their sovereignty. They have no experience of full diplomatic relations, since they assume communication with a potentially equal opponent / ally. They can not have allies in our understanding of the word, since they do not know how to take into account the long-term interests of other states and the consequences of their actions in this regard ... For China, time plays on his side, he "waits by the river when the corpses of enemies swim ". For them, the main thing: to delay the time of direct confrontation with the US, to win another couple of decades of peaceful development.
The international aspect of the incident to the Chinese simply catastrophic. Very many countries China was perceived as one of the centers of power to which we can rely in opposition to the hegemony of the United States. Pakistan, the Philippines, and many others, build its policy based on this "immutable" fact. Now, the international authority of China will fall sharply.Previously China opposed the United States in the group of countries seeking to ensure its sovereignty, but now for an indefinite term, he remained in "splendid" alone».
There are objective reasons for which, according to experts, the conflict over North Korea's practically impossible, "the conflict over North Korea is unique - there is there is a high threat level, but the low probability of the beginning of a real war. On the Korean Peninsula, all hate each other, exchanging threats (the phrase "respond to insults with nuclear annihilation" regularly repeated official statements of North Korean officials), but is not ready to put the first blow at the same time none of the parties.
North Korea's elite understands that any war on the Korean Peninsula over the capture of Pyongyang, and then farewell to a beautiful life. The Americans, the Japanese and the South Koreans, in turn, understand that the price of taking Pyongyang would be extremely high, and it is not even only in military losses to be incurred by the allies in the destruction of millions and (unlike Saddam Hussein) motivated by the North Korean army.
And not only in the nuclear contamination. Firstly, Seoul will not be - in the event of war South Korean capital, which is in 50 kilometers from the border, to bulldoze the North Korean long-range artillery. Second, what to do with the defeated North Korea? Integrated into the South? Experts claim that the cost of even the DPRK the peaceful reintegration of the Republic of Korea is several South Korean GDP, and in the case of the war-torn North price increases further.
Thus, China has outlined its position and the way in which he understands the realization of their national interests and the strategic partnership with Russia. Therefore, if Russia will clearly defend its national interests - not at the expense, of course, the interests of our eastern neighbor, but by building a reasonable, rational and long-term relationships in the triangle of Russia-US-PRC, no one should be offended.
Post-Soviet border states need to think
The understanding of the fact that the United States at the Trump recognize China for its area of interest, it follows that the same area of interest, including the post-Soviet space, and is recognized by Russia. Trump is willing to accept Putin as the same as him, the local sheriff. A sheriffs, as we know, the problem of local Indians do not care. Therefore indicative Tillerson response to questions about the European destiny of Ukraine - "it's not our problem."
The Vatican's response to the new sanctions against Russia proposed by British Foreign Minister Johnson suggested that at the meeting in Italy these proposals were blocked, including the numbers because the US did not insist on them, as before, but the president of Italy (the traditional Vatican's protege) on the same day went to Moscow to report. As soon as the new US alignment with Russia became clear to Merkel, she immediately decided to go to Russia to negotiate a lot: the relations between Germany and Russia, a new section of Europe, the conditions for the partition of the former "neenka" and how to minimize Germany's "hit" money. And here, too, Turkey has outlined its prospects of becoming a "sultanate" with all the ensuing "European community" for it. Everything is very simple.
Agreement Russia and the United States, of course, is not very satisfied with certain circles in Britain, who are willing to do everything possible to prevent the agreements between the two superpowers and due to its methods of diplomacy to continue their play off competently across the spectrum of global issues. In this regard, a very dangerous and untimely step looks pro-British decision of the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev on the transition to the Latin alphabet. Elbasy mistake can be costly. Russian blogosphere issued a verdict that decision.
As noted by Alexei Zhivov, "Kazakhs live in Russia in large numbers. The Kazakhs to some extent stand between Russia and China. Finally, the Kazakhs are the last Russian civilizational frontier before the oncoming plague of radical medieval religiosity. That is why it is even more difficult to understand how economic and geopolitical integration between Russia and Kazakhstan is going on, when Kazakhstan switches to the Latin alphabet. The Latin alphabet will be more abrupt than the Ukrainian Banderites. The change of the alphabet is the final and irreversible cultural gap, followed by the worst events. "
Herman Sadulayev takes an even tougher stance: "The message of the Kazakh leadership sent to an unlimited circle of people by this very political step and gesture to the point of indecency is simple: look, we are not with Russia, an outcast, defender of Assad, an ally of Iran and North Korea, an occupier of eastern Ukraine and generally bad guy, you and I, with the civilized world community, with Turkey, the West and, of course, with America. We are even introducing Latin alphabet in order to make it easier for your soldiers to read Chaihana on the signs of our hospitable restaurants, when NATO bases will rise on our land. They behave as if Russia no longer exists. And they are preparing to open hospitable duty-free customs and visa-free checkpoints on the Kazakh-Ukrainian border.
Why should not the Chinese go to the Latin alphabet? The Communist Party of China does not allow? And the Japanese, as much as possible westernized and occupied by America, why they keep their complicated hieroglyphics? Because culture is the last stronghold. This is a chance for a great future, even if now you are a backward periphery. China has maintained its culture and for a few decades has evolved from a penniless sweat into a country of superprogress. And Japan sooner or later will shake off the American military bases. Until everything is lost, nothing is lost. Until language, culture, symbols are lost, the people are alive. And its independence is a matter of time.
Kazakhstan decided to accept, decided to take the role of a backward periphery and in a symbolic way. So Kazakhstan deprives itself of hope for the future. Could become the center of the Eurasian civilization (together with Russia), but become a third-rate cultural colony of the Great Latin West, Eternal Rome. This is a betrayal of yourself, your people, your future. You can "integrate" - that is, become an American of the third grade. And you can remain a Russian, a Chechen, a Karelian, a Kazakh of the only, highest grade. To do this, we must preserve, and not nullify, our culture and traditions. Refusing the Cyrillic alphabet, Kazakhstan nullifies its common history with Russia, Russian history, Soviet history. "
It also follows that the decision of the Belarusian leadership not to start relations with Russia to a standstill and not to leave the Union State, the Eurasian Economic Community and not to block the CSTO's activities was very correct. Nevertheless, the existing economic model of the oil offshore requires urgent restructuring, since it will operate for a maximum of two or three years. And if it is not changed, then exactly to 2020, when the next presidential elections are due in the republic, Belarus will again find itself in a very difficult economic situation, which can provoke another conflict with Russia.
Therefore, those asking questions that the President of Belarus made to the heads of EEAS meeting in Bishkek, concerning the development of the organization - is very correct. Only in Russia today there is a very strong argument - you should start with themselves, shows how to perform the agreement, and only then, on this basis to make proposals on the way forward.
Nazarbayev, of course, behaves more cunningly than Lukashenka - he created the necessary support base in Britain and relies on her help, while the leader of Belarus periodically goes on a frontal conflict with Moscow, which, naturally, naturally loses. Nevertheless, the policy of Trump leaves less and less space for the anti-Russian fronts in the post-Soviet space. This means that Moscow in building the EAEC can more and more clearly and firmly defend its national-state interests, not particularly looking back at what the local elites think. And Ukraine will be the first example of this new alignment of forces. Who will risk to go second - Kazakhstan or Belarus - time will tell.
According to experts, "we are witnessing an interesting theatrical production designed to strengthen the power of the Trump in the US. Both Russia and China him in this, almost not noticeable, play along. Attack "Tomahawks" in Syria under false pretenses, and the nomination of the US Navy to the Korean peninsula, using the first available under the arm a reason - it acts the same play, called, as I said, to strengthen the power of the Trump in the United States and its credibility among allies.
I think that Trump and in a recent conversation with the Chinese leader Xi, and through Tillerson in Moscow (at a meeting with Putin) gave interesting for Russia and China's proposals on the list of zones of influence, Syria and Ukraine on trade (it is China important) at the same time asked to help consolidate his power in the United States that he is extremely, I would even say vital for his plans to strengthen the US economy.
So all in my opinion, is going according to the plan agreed upon by Washington in Moscow and Beijing. Moscow important decision on Ukraine and Syria. So what are waiting for the imminent development of events in Ukraine and Syria. China - Trade and the admission of Chinese goods to the European and US markets. Well, Trump - control of the US and allies in Europe and Asia, coupled with the economic strengthening of America due to the development of the internal, real and production. The children divided the world, and each side will gradually clear up by themselves their part. "
Trump coped with internal Fronde. He's ready for a big deal with Russia and China. This scenario - high probability division of the world for three - we had already predicted in one of analytical articles. And this will be the game is not a zero-sum. The world has become too small to win one at the expense of others. Or win all or none.