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The chemical reaction of Putin and Trump

The chemical reaction of Putin and Trump

Tags: Putin, Trump, Politics, Russia, United States, International Relations, Analytics, Syria, Ukraine, DPRK

The Hamburg meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump marked the beginning of a new phase of Russian-American relations. And if everything turns out the way the two presidents want, then it will be possible to talk about the most important changes in the international climate.

What happened was what eight months were most feared by opponents of Russia and Donald Trump: the presidents of the United States and Russia met, met and spoke.

Under normal circumstances, there would not be anything supernatural in the very fact of the Russian-American summit, even in the face of rather strained bilateral relations - well, the head of the White House was replaced, it is quite natural to try to establish relations in at least some spheres.

Even in the years of the most severe confrontation between the USSR and the US, the change of power in the White House or the Kremlin tended to lead to a search for new opportunities for dialogue - and now, when there are no two camps ideologically opposing each other, what could be objected to the very need for dialogue between the two presidents ? However, in the United States not only objections sounded - there was a purposeful campaign to prevent such a meeting.

What did the opponents of the summit fear? After all, it is clearly not the case that Trump will make any concessions to Putin or be defeated by the insidious Russian president - this propagandistic delusion is intended only for a credulous American audience. American globalists feared only that Trump and Putin would find a common language - not the Middle East, Ukraine, Korea or any other regional or global issue, but in general, according to the international situation.

Yes, with all the huge and real, partially irremovable, partially solved, objective and subjective contradictions and disagreements between the US and Russia as the two superpowers (and Russia remains a great power even in its current, truncated and weakened state - while retaining the potential of a superpower) Trump and Putin have one common quality. They are realists and supporters of strengthening the national sovereignty of their states. That is, opponents of globalization, carried out by the Atlantic, Anglo-Saxon elite - and since the most important part of this elite has become a large part of the American establishment, then also opponents of the "Washington swamp". This is the reason for the situation, paradoxical for the former times, that has developed now, when the globalist press, instead of concentrating on Putin's demonization, is compelled to attack both the American and the Russian president simultaneously. But no matter what the American media wrote, and they naturally say that Trump lost to Putin, he did not protect American democracy (he raised the issue of "Russian interference in the elections" in the wrong tone) and inflicted another loss on American national interests, it is clear that what happened was so feared. Putin and Trump began a dialogue.

This conversation can be a long one - at worst for globalists it can end in 2024 year (if Trump is re-elected for a second term). For these years in the dialogue between Putin and Trump there may be disagreements and disputes, quarrels and mutual understanding, agreements and failures. Maybe everything - but this is something that is unacceptable for opponents of Putin and Trump.

Trump is not run by the American establishment, for which he is hated even more than for his non-global views. He can sag, maneuver, but will bend his line, push and promote his concept. This happened in the very fact of the meeting with Putin: no matter how dictated to Trump the limitations and the framework for this "conversation in the fields," he, who had previously been postponed for several months so important for him, met with the Russian president, as well as the real president should conduct, instead of an executing role. Two-and-a-quarter hours of conversation in themselves became a challenge to the "Washington swamp" - and even more unpleasant was what happened during the conversation.

Best of all, she was described by the US Secretary of State. Calling the meeting "very constructive," Tillerson said:

"Both leaders, I would say, came together very quickly. It is clear that positive chemistry has developed between them ... There was such a level of involvement and exchange of opinions that none of them wanted to stop. People looked at the door of the meeting room. At some point they even sent the first lady to see if she could get us out of there. Obviously, she could not do it. "

This is the main outcome of the meeting: the two presidents saw in each other whom they can deal with. Do not trust - it's still early, but to speak frankly and directly. Do not haggle - the notion that you can play with Putin in "you, me, you" are ridiculous, namely, to seek a balance of interests, build combinations of forces and players, in general, play the most complex and exciting game in the world, in geopolitics, Combining all the advantages of chess-go-poker.

Yes, and before the meeting both had what was called mutual sympathy, although it is more correct to talk about the readiness for dialogue, but now these advances have been tested by practice.

Therefore, it is not so important, as agreed between Putin and Trump, because this is the beginning of a big conversation. Nevertheless, the topics of the conversation are still interesting. They talked about the Middle East, Ukraine, Korea - and, most importantly, about bilateral relations. The most exciting topic for Tramp's opponents - Russia's non-existent intervention in the US elections - was played out by both sides quite competently.

Trump could not fail to mention this - they made this issue "the number one" in the domestic political life of the United States - but it is clear that there was no question of any demarche or "protest against Putin's aggression". And it is quite likely that Putin himself started the topic of the "Russian trace" - he even asked Trump jokingly at the press, pointing to the American journalists who shouted their questions about "Russian interference": "Do they offend you?" Putin deliberately relieved Trump of the transition to this topic, a conversation about which is known so far in the exposition of Sergei Lavrov:

"Trump mentioned that in the US some circles are fanning, although they can not prove, the topic of Russian interference in the US elections. President Trump said that this campaign is already acquiring a rather strange character. For many months, when these accusations sounded, there was not a single fact that is recognized by those in the congress, who headed this movement at a certain stage. Trump said he heard Putin's clear statements that it was not true and that the Russian leadership did not interfere in these elections. He accepts these statements. "

It is clear that this will not satisfy the opponents of Trump - but formally the question would be posed. Moreover, the Kremlin and the White House will create a working group to combat hackers and interact in work on cybersecurity. In other words, now the administration of Trampov will respond to all claims about the "Russian trace" and "Russian hackers": we are working on this together with the Russians in a special commission. Rex Tillerson even called a working group dedicated to cybersecurity as well as a group on non-interference in each other's affairs. Naturally, the Secretary of State in every possible way emphasized the great attention and place taken by the discussion of "Russian interference" in the negotiations - but this is understandable, for the Trump administration this is a matter of political struggle and survival. Therefore, Tillerson said that Trump "repeatedly pressed" on Putin on the issues of "interference in the democratic processes" of the United States:

"We agreed to continue discussions on how we can get obligations, that the Russian government does not intend and will not interfere in our affairs in the future, and how to create a framework in which we can somehow assess what is happening in cyberspace and Whom to bring to justice. And this issue is certainly wider than just the relations between Russia and the United States. "

This arrangement has a piarne, propagandistic significance - everyone understands that Russia did not interfere in the American elections, Trump and Putin just played the topic.

According to Lavrov, three more practical agreements were reached. One concerns the acceleration of the procedures for appointing new ambassadors - behind this lies the discussion of the return of property of the Russian diplomatic mission, confiscated under Obama, and the other two - the main regional problems, Syria and Ukraine. The main for Russia - because for the United States Trump is more important than Syria and Korea.

Syria has reached an agreement on a ceasefire in the south-west of the country, in the Syrian-Jordanian border area - which is generally a continuation of the already intensifying coordination of the actions of the two countries in Syria and Iraq. The war with IGIL * is coming to an end - and the reassembly of Syria and Iraq will be a long, but mostly peaceful. There is no question of overthrowing or leaving Assad any more: Syria has long been considered a zone of Russian influence, and Americans have enough problems in their sectors of the Middle East (take at least the conflict between the Gulf countries and Qatar).

Another agreement concerns Ukraine - Trump appointed a special representative of the BWO to help efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.

"It was agreed to create a channel between the representative of the Russian Federation and the American representative in order to use this opportunity to advance the settlement on the basis of the Minsk agreements, taking into account the potential of the contact group and the Norman format," Lavrov said.

The American representative will soon arrive for talks in Moscow - that is, Washington will try to play a big role in the search for a settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. Do not try to simply tear Ukraine away from Russia at any cost - even if not even in Donbass - as the Obama administration hoped to do, but to seek options for alleviating tension.

Trump understands that Putin will not stumble from Ukraine - that is, Russia will not calmly watch the attempts of atlantization unflagging - that the Donbas is lost to the anti-Russian Ukraine, that the situation is deadlocked. Trump can not refuse to support the course on Ukraine's Eurointegration - Congress will declare him an agent of Putin - but he can reduce the support of the Kiev authorities to formal (which is happening in recent months). And this in itself will be a verdict for the current Ukrainian elite.

However, Trump considers the Ukrainian theme, first of all, as a kind of brick lying on the way to his relationship with Putin. To play a big game with Putin, he needs to freeze Ukraine - not giving it to Russia, but not continuing to blackmail Moscow with the Atlanticization of the western edge of the Russian world. That is, Trump is interested in the same thing as European business - show, draw, progress in the implementation of the Minsk process, to freeze the status quo between Ukraine and the People's Republic of China with the LNR, thereby obtaining the opportunity to restore normal relations with Moscow (even with formal maintenance of sanctions in force). And this means that the pressure on Poroshenko will increase - and from all sides.

The presidents also spoke about the Korean theme - it is clear that this issue can become an example of real joint work in the coming weeks and months to find a way out of the crisis created by the Americans in the Far East. The main thing is that now Putin and Trump began to talk.

Peter Akopov
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