Last year there were two events that are not predicted nor the most eminent and the most highly paid in the world sociology of global politics, nor the quality press - if, after last year's elections in the US can be assumed that the planet has remained the quality press ... Brexit victory and Trump were surprises. For the reason that gave rise to them were unobservable processes for traditional methods. But the tools to work with large data discovered them and made it possible to effectively use. Let's see how it was.
The phenomenon of surprise political figures that the socio-economic processes do not go as they want, as well as defines the reality, and is known in our country. A classic example was a genuine surprise Jury Karjakin results of elections to the Federal Assembly 1993 years, which he expressed a cry - "Russia, you have gone crazy!". Well, it was difficult for the capital of entertainment shock to see people from the collapse of the economy and hyperinflation polyhnuvshey.
Governors, play in the nineties elections opposition candidates, and sends then under arrest and at the time of winning looked very surprised - but it was all very simple: hand sociologists who do not have the slightest idea of the theory of probability and matstatistike just painted the figures which in their view had to please the overbearing eye ...
But both domestic prescription example in a few dozen years, characterized by primitive disregard public opinion research - well, where he had to learn to post-Soviet dissidents and the governors of the secretaries of the rural district committees ... But in the referendum on Brexit in the US presidential election in 2016 year were involved the best experts Anglo-Saxon world ; experts, sets the bar in the global science and education. But they were wrong! Why?
Well, sociologists, if they ask this question, begin to talk about how difficult it is to compare two almost equal values of ... Well, it is difficult, it is passed at the beginning of any course of numerical methods. Where are the recommendations and what to do in this case - to improve the accuracy, dramatically increasing the number of measurements. The recipe is versatile - applies to engineering and sociology. But this was not done ... Why? Yes unlikely because Clinton headquarters had no money. Just not tracked socio-economic processes that led to the vote for Brexit, and Trump.
Classical sociologists - not tracked. Big-media UK and the US - are not tracked. But there were also those who process these not only detect and track, but also was able to use for the purpose of the election campaign, which was sympathetic. For Brexit and Trump, respectively. And did it not journalists, not politicians with sociologists. Made a specialist in information technology. However, a specialist who has experience in managing large business and is the sponsor of the famous political site.
Robert Leroy Mercer - financiers of kings did for a long time, but he reshapes the geopolitical map, bringing Britain from the EU!
Robert Leroy Mercer was born in 1946 year. Program studied in high school, the National Youth Science Camp, donated to the IBM computer. He studied, worked for the US Air Force and in the research division of IBM, where he created the Mercer Clustering, «Mercer clustering", which became a standard statistical procedure for machine translation and speech recognition. But in 1993, he was invited to the Renaissance Technologies LLC - a hedge fund, where worked during the Cold War, the mathematical methods used for investment management.
Used in highly successful - in the year 2015 Renaissance Technologies worth $ 65 billion and Mercer, executive co-director of the fund, long-billionaire.. Preserving billionaires coming from the industrial era, such as Andrew Carnegie built the library, the tradition of charity is combined with political activism. In 2011 year Mercer donated known conservative news network Breitbart News Network eleven million dollars. Well, a few years later I began to interfere in the electoral process itself.
First - on the side of Republican candidate Ted Cruz. Then he helped his old friend Nigel Faraj, a British fighter against the EU. Well, then ensured the victory of the main Republican candidate Donald Trump. In all cases, the instrument of Mercer was the British company Cambridge Analytica, whose activities are based on three technologies - on the analysis of large data; on computer behavioral analysis; on targeting of advertising, including political. About the financing of this company by Mercer using very complex schemes, first told the Swiss magazine Das Magazin, and then the British The Guardian.
The scheme of Cambridge Analytica is as follows: first, large data are analyzed, which users of social networks themselves kindly inform all comers. And here on these arrays - dozens and tens of millions of accounts, while classical sociology operates with surveys of only a few thousand people - there are conclusions about the existence in Britain of a large number of people who are dissatisfied with the abundance of migrants and the dominance of Brussels bureaucrats. Well, in the States, it is not difficult to find a sixty-year-old builder of frame houses, worried that his son will live much poorer than him ...
Kozinski Michael now works at Stanford - this modest scholar taught computers to understand human nature better hardened politicians ...
But this is just a trend, only the protest potential, which should be implemented. psychological profiling - For this second technology was enabled. It is based on the works of the Pole Michael Kosinski - he psychometrics Cambridge Center once created an application for Facebook, called MyPersonality. It responds to questions - and you get a psychological portrait. Well, the creators of the programs receive data about millions of users of social networks.
So it is necessary to build on the psychological portraits of voters in Britain and the United States, dissatisfied with the status quo, potentially ready to vote against the omnipotence of Brussels and clan Clintons. And go into action. Break these potential supporters to a sufficient number of groups and psycho form for each of them targeted advertisements that encourage him to come to the polling station and vote appropriately.
For an elderly parishioner, twitching of LGBT abundance, advertising will have its own, but for the lover of weapons, assassination attempts perturbed liberals on the Second Amendment - their own!
And it will be differentiated even within these groups. A conservator with a pair of doctoral degrees will receive a text written in good literary language. Well, rednek - the way they talk in his county. By the way, in the effectiveness of methods of computer analysis in application to rednekam many doubt, they say, are rarely used by white workers in the South of the United States social networks. But this is not necessary - each of us lives in a transparent world, and buying two packs of cartridges with a "nine" is enough to make a conclusion about the forthcoming hunt for a woodcock ... To write about this is unnecessary. A conclusion is something such a regular search engine ...
Eurosceptics Faraj Cambridge Analytica assistance was provided free of charge, or rather - for sponsorship donations Mercer. Staff Trump paid for it six million dollars, although according to some estimates and the figures reached fifteen million. Well, that increase the effectiveness of advertising in the application of Cambridge Analytica methods reaches 1400%, expressed doubts - «Eine 1400-Prozent-Bombe?». But the fact that they increase the efficiency at 60%, no doubt, and the most severe criticism of psychological profilers. And it's a lot!
Especially when it comes to a conflict between two almost equal number of groups. Find and analyze hidden from traditional sociology tendencies of society, to assess their prospects and make the right move - all these methods make it possible to Cambridge Analytica, which brilliantly implemented in the political practice of Robert Mercer. But such processes are in fact at all levels in all countries - and those who are not able to adequately work with them, waiting for unpleasant surprises!