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Kiev looking for a pretext for a new war with Russia Transit

Kiev looking for a pretext for a new war with Russia Transit

Tags: Russia, Ukraine, Economy, EAEC, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Railway, Trade, sanctions, Research, Europe, Belarus

Ukraine outraged new restrictions transit their goods through Russian territory. Now they apply to transit not only in Kazakhstan but also in Kyrgyzstan - and it really makes little difference in the current transit regime. With what is associated emotional reaction of Kiev?

In Kiev, fear a full stop of transit through Ukrainian goods to Russia. The reason they named the new decree of President Vladimir Putin regarding the transit of goods from Ukraine through the Russian territory.

"These changes may temporarily cause a complete stop the transit of goods from Ukraine via Russian territory, not only in the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, but also for third countries. Please note this information when planning the delivery of goods originating from Ukraine in transit through Russian territory of a third country ", - stated in the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine.

On the eve of Putin really has amended the decree on economic security and national interests of Russia, which since the New Year has established rules for transit from Ukraine to Kazakhstan via Russia.

According to the original text of the decree, since the beginning of this year, such transit must take place exclusively through the two checkpoints on the border of Belarus and the Russian Federation on a specified route. The load must be sealed, and the route should be monitored on the basis of the GLONASS system. Transit of goods that fall under the embargo was completely banned. The logic is simple - this arrangement allows better control the flow and avoid the "gray" Ukrainian exports, settling in Russia.

Since 1 July this year, all these requirements now apply not only to transit cargo to Kazakhstan, but also to Kyrgyzstan. Also, a temporary ban on road and rail transport for two types of goods is introduced. First, it is forbidden to transport agricultural products and products that fall under the embargo (which was already so). Secondly, it is forbidden to transport goods for which customs duties are applied for sale in the Russian Federation, established in the framework of the Unified Customs Tariff of the EAEC. Also, the restriction of transit of products is extended until 1 January 2017, which is explained by the extension of sanctions against Russia to the same period.

In fact, nothing new, these changes do not contribute. Kyrgyzstan, as well as Kazakhstan, included in the EAEC, so it is subject to the same customs rules. Just Kyrgyzstan does not border with Russia, apparently, so did not initially considered it necessary to introduce transit restrictions against her. But, apparently, Ukrainian unscrupulous vendors have taken advantage of this loophole by declaring goods to Kyrgyzstan, does not exclude the first vice-president of "Russian Club of Financial Directors" Tamara Kasyanov. And now Moscow deprive Kiev of such loopholes.

Kiev is clearly blowing out of proportion, saying the threat of a complete stop in the direction of transit. This clearly shows Ukraine Trade statistics with Kyrgyzstan. In this regard, Ukraine is the most used to take goods in Kazakhstan in relation to which restrictions are well established. Thus, in January - October 2015 the volume of Ukrainian exports to Kazakhstan amounted to more than 605 million dollars Ukrainian carriers flew about 80 thousand car trips to Kazakhstan by rail to be delivered 380 thousand tons of Ukrainian goods...

Notable was also exported to Azerbaijan - by rail was delivered by Russian 240 thousand tons of Ukrainian goods.. Quite a significant purchaser of its products in Ukraine is China, but the railway was sent only 4 thousand tons of Ukrainian goods, and the rest -. Through the ports of Ukraine.

The trade turnover between Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan also was small - only 77,8 million dollars at the end of the year 2015. Therefore, the application of Kiev, that the transit restrictions in Kyrgyzstan can completely stop the transit is clearly exaggerated. This indirectly confirms the assumption about the current Ukrainian carriers "Kyrgyz" loophole, which now overlaps.

Restrictions on goods entered for the same reasons - for better control and prevent the import of Ukrainian goods for sale in Russia under the guise of transit.

However, Kasyanov does not exclude that in the near future, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan will hold talks with the Russian side, so that it allowed the carriage of certain types of goods across the Russian Federation, and they are members of the EAEC, it can get such permission, subject to mutual agreement with Russia.

Kiev threatens sanctions mirror and claim to the WTO

Kiev could not take advantage of transit "pretext" to once again recall the "aggressiveness" of Russia. New restrictions Russia are unjustified and discriminatory, they violate the commitments undertaken in the framework of the World Trade Organization and the Agreement on free trade zone, said Ukrainian ministry. This refers to a violation of WTO rules, as well as the CIS free trade zone.

In addition, Kiev has promised that additional restrictions on transit and will enter into preparing your request for the WTO to initiate a dispute with Russia. "We are now dovnosim changes in the draft request to initiate a dispute in the WTO on the limitation of transit in the circumstances that have been established, and shall submit this request in the near future", - said Deputy Minister of Economy - Trade Representative of Ukraine Natalia Mykolskiy. Kiev will demand to abolish these measures.

WTO arbitrators in court may well stand on the side of Ukraine, as part of the WTO rules allow to find fault with Russia. Meanwhile themselves WTO rules relied on by Kiev - a vivid example of the double standards of the West, which has infected and Ukraine itself, wrote earlier newspaper VIEW.

In addition, Russia itself has many reasons to start similar courts against Ukraine. The sanctions imposed on Russia by a number of countries, to which Ukraine voluntarily joined, are also a violation of WTO rules. It is at least strange to blame Russia for this. As for the CIS free trade zone, it ceased to operate exactly at the moment when Ukraine's free trade zone with the EU began to operate within the framework of the association agreement. About what will happen, Kiev knew from the beginning. However, Moscow's appeals to find a compromise solution, so that both zones "did not conflict" with each other, Ukraine disavowed and did not go to the contract.

In order not to lose face, Kiev also promised to introduce sanctions against Russia SLR. According to the Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Stepan Stepan Kubiv, the government will make to the parliament a bill to restrict the transit of Russian goods through Ukraine, reports TASS.

However, after being on the roads of Ukraine this year began to wield radical groups, stopping the Russian truck, among the Russians wishing to carry goods to Europe via Ukraine and so much diminished. In addition, Ukrainian route and before the conflict was not very popular with the drivers of motor trucks. More often Russians driven by car exports through Poland, Belarus or Ust-Luga. Therefore, Ukrainian SLR sanctions once again a political step, from which he will suffer Kiev, than Moscow.

For 11 2015 months, Russia has put the EU 8,6 million tons of cargo, which is almost 20% more than in the same period of 2014 years. "However, the road transport in the total EU exports take up little space. Not to mention the fact that they are not only in Ukraine but also via Belarus and Poland, and the Baltic ports. Therefore, Russia's nothing to worry about. In addition, Russia has many economic levers of influence on Ukraine if it will persist in the creation of various "mirror measures", - according to Kasyanov.

Ukraine loses more

For Ukraine, the Russian restrictions on transit have had serious negative consequences. Overall, Ukraine exported earlier in the countries of Central Asia and Mongolia goods on 1 billion dollars. This year, according to Mykolskiy, Ukraine loses 450-600 million from transit restrictions. That is, in Kiev waiting for a drop in exports to the countries of Central Asia and Mongolia, twice or even more because of the new rules of transit through Kazakhstan to the Russian Federation.

According to official data, this prediction is coming true. So, in the first quarter, exports of Ukraine in Kazakhstan fell to 49%, in other countries of the region (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) - to 48%, the statement said Ukraine on trade in goods Council of the World Trade Organization from 15 April. Moreover export perishable agricultural products in new transit conditions likely to be reduced to zero.

The main items of Ukrainian imports in the countries of Central Asia is an agricultural and food products, in particular preparations of grains, sugar and confectionery products, and the second item of export is the production of metallurgy and machine building.

The Central Asian countries, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China and Mongolia is the second after Russia in terms of market for finished food products from Ukraine, previously recognized Trade Representative of Ukraine Natalia Mykolskiy. As of 10 2015 months of the year, exports of food products in the countries of Central Asia and Mongolia was approximately $ 300 million (almost 30% of the total exports), about half came from exports of Ukrainian confectionery.

Olga Samofalova
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