At the congress of the Communist Party of China, international issues do not take a big place, but on the first day in the Xi Jinping report, two important statements were made: about the world hegemony and the Chinese army. One of them can even be called sensational - if you follow not the letter, but the spirit of what has been said. And it directly concerns what will be the Chinese army in a few years.
The report of the Secretary General of the Central Committee at the 19-th congress of the party lasted three and a half hours - and the key figures in it were the figures 2035 and 2050. These are the years - the stages on the way to the "great revival of the Chinese nation".
The first date is the time for the completion of socialist modernization, and the second is the time for the transformation of China "into a rich, powerful, democratic, harmonious, civilized, modernized socialist state." That is, by the centenary of the proclamation of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese dream must come true and the country must "become again great", in the words of Trump.
At the same time, China's ambitions are not only real, but also quite natural - most of its history, China was the world's largest power in every sense. It's just in our Euro-centric look that sounds awesome. But objective analysis suggests that for four thousand years of its history (this is a proven minimum), China has experienced many neighboring and distant civilizations, including those who claimed global scale, and retained its independence and self-sufficiency.
Not only its population, but also the economy were the largest in the world - making even two centuries ago a third of the world's volume. Just in the 18 century, the country began to have problems, aggravated by the fact that in the 19 century it was forcibly opened to the world. Coming to the coast of China fully armed, the West took advantage of internal crises, aggravated and provoked them, planted the Chinese on opium and ultimately made the great country its semi-colony.
Almost a century the Chinese troubles continued - from the middle of 19 to the middle of 20, the last forty years there was an actual disintegration of the country. With the establishment of the PRC, the country began to revive, but in the middle of the 60-x again fell into a small distemper of the "cultural revolution" - and only at the end of the 70-x came to a stable trajectory of growth.
Over the past 40 years, China has made a huge leap - but, on the other hand, it just returned to its proper place in the world. He restored the lost, becoming the main power of the world before our eyes. He already has the world's largest economy and the world's largest growth rates, the world's largest population and the most ambitious plans. In a good sense, words are ambitious. China does not pretend to world domination, to replace America as a world hegemon. More precisely, he will inevitably replace - and already replaces it as the most powerful one - but he always emphasizes that he will not become a new global hegemon.
Xi Xinxi Congress Xi Jinping said that China will never pursue a policy of expansion and will not sacrifice the interests of other countries for its own benefit:
"Whatever level China has reached in its development, it will never claim the position of a hegemon."
Well, of course, they say Kitaiophobes, it's all a lulling Chinese melody. And as soon as they become the strongest in everything, they will immediately turn into new Americans, dictate their conditions, seize territories and impose their mores.
It is clear that Russia, which has a rich experience of relations with Europe and the West as a whole, has got used to measure everything in the Western manner - but the Chinese geopolitical strategy is as much different from the Western one as the Chinese civilization from the European one. The Chinese do not impose their values on anyone. Including because all nations are considered different, and, to put it mildly, inferior to the Chinese in development - do not seek to control the whole world through military force, diplomacy and covert operations.
The Chinese are trying to gain control over trade and various businesses in foreign countries, but everything depends on the strength of the opponent partner, and not on the power of Beijing's pressure. Russia, for example, has nothing to fear from any form of "Chinese expansion" - if we in every joint business with the Chinese are clearly and cleverly defending their national interests. Our countries do not have unavoidable contradictions - and there are many truly mutually beneficial and strategically important common issues.
The fact that the rise of China is objective and inevitable, has long been understood by the Anglo-Saxons, but they have a completely different relationship with the Celestial Empire. And the problem here is not in the Chinese. For almost forty years, competent American analysts have talked about the inevitability of an American-Chinese clash in the struggle for global domination - and this is only partly true.
Yes, China is challenging America - but only because it does not just pretend to world hegemony, but also tries to behave as if we live in a "world in American way." The United States has been holding back China since the proclamation of the PRC, and although in the post-war period they were much more engaged in confrontation with the USSR, already at the end of the 80, after reconciliation with Moscow, the "Chinese issue" again became the key issue for the US.
It is enough to simply look at the geographic map to understand how the United States in the military sense literally overlaid China. Especially in the east and south-east, from Japan and Korea to the South China Sea. In a great country, whose economy also depends on the import of energy resources and the export of goods, such a "blockade" naturally causes nothing but irritation. And the desire to break the bonds - which, undoubtedly, will be done. And in an informal alliance with Russia, which, like China, is interested in changing the existing world order.
But if Russia traditionally pursues an active foreign policy, then China, as well as traditionally, adheres to extremely cautious tactics. This is due to a number of reasons. Now we can single out the fact that China does not want to disclose its plans until the moment when it is already useless to hide them. Such tactics are rather conventional - after all, Atlantic geopoliticians see what is happening in reality.
And it is not only an active Russian-Chinese rapprochement, but also a major program of modernization of the Chinese army. Xi Jinping also spoke about it at the congress.
"We have reached a new historic key moment in strengthening the national defense and armed forces ... We must fully implement the Party's ideas on strengthening the army to enter a new era and adjust the military strategy to new conditions. To build a strong and modern army, navy, air force, ground forces, as well as troops of strategic support ...
We will make this our mission, that by the time of 2035, the modernization of our national defense and armed forces has been basically completed. And by the middle of this century, we need to turn the Chinese people's army into a world class armed force. "
These words have already caused a bit of a stir - the fact is that some media have translated the "advanced world level" as "the strongest in the world". If Si really said that by the time of 2050, the Chinese army would have become the strongest in the world, this would have been a sensation. Not because it is surprising or outrageous, but because the Chinese never say anything that could be used to accuse them of claims to world domination. They do not want it - but who doubts that the US would immediately seize upon such a statement and declare it a threat to American, and international interests.
At the same time, the United States not only constantly emphasizes that they have the strongest army in the world (which corresponds to reality from the year 1991), but they constantly declare that they will not allow anyone to become stronger than them. Well, in general, what is allowed to Jupiter ... Naturally, neither China nor Russia disagrees with this - but it is not necessary to arrange an arms race with the United States. We have nuclear weapons, modernize land forces, aviation and fleet are being updated - so far this will be enough for us. But China, which needs to print its own borders, spread its shoulders, even in the zone of its own national interests, simply can not do this without displacing the US. Therefore, accelerated military construction is the only possible option for Beijing to achieve the "Chinese dream".
So Xi Jinping, speaking about the achievement of the Chinese army in 2050-th year of "advanced world level", really meant that it will become the strongest in the world. And there is no doubt that this will happen. The power of the Chinese economy, the funds allocated to the army (and the official military budget shows only a part of the costs), and, most importantly, the weapons program for the next few decades, does not leave it in doubt. By 2050, China will have the largest fleet in the world (including more than a dozen aircraft carriers) and the world's largest air force. This is what you need to squeeze the US out of the Pacific. At the same time, the United States itself will gradually take positions all these years, not only in this region (which, however, becomes the most important), but also in the world as a whole. So it is likely that before the Sino-American war it will not come.
Well, the option of provoking a "war ahead of time", which the UK applied to Germany in 1914 (in London it was understood that the program for the construction of the German fleet would inevitably lead to the loss of control by the empire over the world's oceans), the US will not work against China.
It is only the internal crisis and the new turmoil in China that can prevent the Chinese army from entering the first position in the world. But the CCP does everything to prevent this from happening. Including carefully studying the Soviet experience: from the October Revolution to the collapse of the USSR. And the construction of the Soviet Red Army - the most powerful army in the world in the second half of the 20-th century.