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11.05.2017

Who eventually topple Trump

President Donald Trump, sensing a close victory in the Syrian city of Raqqa on terrorists IG *, decided to be generous to those who have secured this victory. Kurdish forces, modestly called generalized in the media - "militia" will be given as many weapons as needed to expel militants from their Syrian capital.

It would seem that what the stumbling block here, and why it is so easy idea is to equip "cannon fodder" in place of its soldiers, might not work? Firstly, because the Kurds do not have their own state, according to the Syrian north of the historical part of Kurdistan, and, of course, reclaimed land to give to anyone do not intend to. And from them in the United States expect the liberated territories will have to share (more on that below).

By the way, the map of the failed (so far) Kurdistan

The second problem that will have to face Trump - Ankara's dissatisfaction. Turkey, which historically opposed any Kurdish formations and considers the local Kurdish association a terrorist organization, is unlikely to approve the armed support of the enemy right at its own borders. And, finally, the third problem that finally drives the US to a standstill - Trump made promises "to give back the Kurdish territory to the Syrian Arabs." This promise, of course, is aimed at pacifying Turkey for the period of the operation in Rakka. But what will the tramp administration do when Rakku is released (and sooner or later this should happen), and the Kurds will not go anywhere? (a situation where the slaughter of Kurds cleared the north of the IG * is a very stupid situation, a massacre begins in which the arms of the Americans oppose ... American weapons).

Moreover, it is clear that Trump sent weapons will not only fight against terrorists, but also to fight with the local, but more crucial for the Kurdish enemy - Turkey. That is now the de facto States themselves become sponsors of war against his yet NATO partners. With that somehow preserved a fragile peace. Shortsightedness action against unrecognized Kurds indicates a lack of understanding of the long-term question, here and now we want a quick victory, and then you will understand somehow.

About as versed in Mosul, where more than six months ago, the same words were promised a quick victory, but things are there. Even the Russian aircraft in Iraq now - more frequent visitor than the American planes. Again, the obvious conclusion - history teaches nothing of American generals, they did not understand the intricacies of how the nature of the Middle East, and have not learned. Of course, the war in the desert - it is not the oil pump.

Within the context of the overall fight against terrorism, the Russian side to hand any action against IG *. And the Kurds have not been seen in the aggression against Russian formations in Syria, without claiming to complete the conquest of the country. Nothing to complain about, but it is not yet. Because already after a short time could be surprised to discover the American machine "in the wrong hands," noted the Pentagon looks away and says "nastamnet".

On the other side of the balance is Iran. The Kurdish issue in Iran is quite acute because of the separatist sentiments of the national minority. In total, Iran, in addition to the IG *, regularly has a problem with the Kurds and Israel, which is actively opposing Iran because of Tehran's support for Lebanese Hezbollah. It should not be forgotten that Americans have been fighting Iran for many years, looking for an excuse to impose sanctions or completely drive their troops there. The problem can be solved very simply - with good cooperation with the Kurds, even after the Syrian operation, the Americans can continue arming their groups in order to continue the war in the territory of such an unloved Iran. Several hares will be killed - Iran is destabilized, Israel is happy, the Kurds are loyal and faithful. Incidentally, the same Israel, the Kurds, even supports, regularly increasing the volume of mutual trade. The story turns out very interesting.

But Turkey again does not fit into the general outline. Her relations with the Kurds are characterized by constant sudden and causeless bombing of Kurdish quarters in Turkish territory. It is difficult to imagine that they will be able to tacitly observe how the main enemy is getting on its feet and gaining economic and military power. And Ankara, I remind you, has the second largest army in NATO, does not have serious economic problems, but acquires authoritarian features, which helps a lot in the war. And the likelihood of new large-scale armed actions involving Israel, Iran, Turkey and the Kurds no longer seems so insignificant.

So who eventually topple Trump? Turkey and Iran and its only partner of the Syrian war - the Kurds?

A source: Blog manzal

Tags: Syria, the Kurds, the Middle East, the war in the Middle East, the United States, analysts, policy