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11.05.2017 - 12: 02

Who eventually topple Trump

President Donald Trump, sensing a close victory in the Syrian city of Raqqa on terrorists IG *, decided to be generous to those who have secured this victory. Kurdish forces, modestly called generalized in the media - "militia" will be given as many weapons as needed to expel militants from their Syrian capital.

It would seem that what the stumbling block here, and why it is so easy idea is to equip "cannon fodder" in place of its soldiers, might not work? Firstly, because the Kurds do not have their own state, according to the Syrian north of the historical part of Kurdistan, and, of course, reclaimed land to give to anyone do not intend to. And from them in the United States expect the liberated territories will have to share (more on that below).

By the way, the map of the failed (so far) Kurdistan

The second problem, which will face Trump - dissatisfaction with Ankara. Turkey, historically opposed to any Kurdish groups and considers the local association of the Kurdish terrorist organization, is unlikely to approve the armed support of the enemy right in their own borders. Finally, the third problem, which finally drives the US to a standstill - Trump gave promise "to give the Kurds reclaimed the territory of the Syrian Arabs." This promise, of course, is aimed at to subdue Turkey for the period of operation in Raqqa. But what will make the administration trampovskaya when Rakka released (and sooner or later it has to happen), and the Kurds are not going anywhere? (Very silly situation appears, in which the Kurds, to clear the north of the IG *, begins massacre, in which American weapons is against ... American weapons).

Moreover, it is clear that Trump sent weapons will not only fight against terrorists, but also to fight with the local, but more crucial for the Kurdish enemy - Turkey. That is now the de facto States themselves become sponsors of war against his yet NATO partners. With that somehow preserved a fragile peace. Shortsightedness action against unrecognized Kurds indicates a lack of understanding of the long-term question, here and now we want a quick victory, and then you will understand somehow.

About as versed in Mosul, where more than six months ago, the same words were promised a quick victory, but things are there. Even the Russian aircraft in Iraq now - more frequent visitor than the American planes. Again, the obvious conclusion - history teaches nothing of American generals, they did not understand the intricacies of how the nature of the Middle East, and have not learned. Of course, the war in the desert - it is not the oil pump.

Within the context of the overall fight against terrorism, the Russian side to hand any action against IG *. And the Kurds have not been seen in the aggression against Russian formations in Syria, without claiming to complete the conquest of the country. Nothing to complain about, but it is not yet. Because already after a short time could be surprised to discover the American machine "in the wrong hands," noted the Pentagon looks away and says "nastamnet".

On the other side of the scale is Iran. Kurdish issue in Iran is quite acute because of the separatist sentiments of a national minority. Total Iran, in addition to the IG * on a regular basis, there is the problem of the Kurds and Israel, actively acting against Iran because of Tehran's support for the Lebanese Hezbollah. We must not forget that on Iran for many years act and Americans seeking a pretext to impose sanctions or even to drive to his troops. The problem can be solved very simply - in good cooperation with the Kurds, even after the Syrian operations Americans can continue their armed groups to continue the war on the territory of Iran is so unloved. Will be killed several birds with one stone - destabilized Iran, Israel satisfied, Kurds loyal and faithful. Incidentally, the same Israel of Kurds is even supported by regularly increasing the volume of bilateral trade. History turns out very interesting.

But again, Turkey does not fit into the overall fabric. Her relationship with the Kurds are characterized by constant and sudden wanton bombing of Kurdish neighborhoods in the Turkish territory. It is difficult to imagine that they will be able to silently watch as the main enemy gets to his feet and takes economic and military power. And Ankara, recall, has the second power of the army in NATO, has no serious economic problems, but becomes authoritarian features that helps a lot in the war. And the probability of new large-scale military action involving Israel, Iran, Turkey and the Kurds no longer seems so small.

So who eventually topple Trump? Turkey and Iran and its only partner of the Syrian war - the Kurds?

A source: Blog manzal

Tags: Syria, the Kurds, the Middle East, the war in the Middle East, the United States, analysts, policy