Ankara defies Brussels.
The referendum on the amendments to the Turkish Constitution, which 51,3% of voters said "yes" to the amendments, has created a fundamentally new situation, not only in the country but in the international system, and therefore - and the Middle East. According to the well-known German publication Die Zeit, «narrow margin President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has shown that the ruling Justice and Development Party, along with its allies in the ultranationalist party" National Movement "has not received all the votes that have been on the parliamentary elections in 2015 year, country marked a serious split, which will complicate the use of Erdogan's mandate to a fundamental restructuring of the state. "
But it's not that. After the Council of Europe said that "in general, the referendum did not meet the Council of Europe standards, and the legal basis did not meet the requirements of a genuine and democratic process" in a difficult situation turned out to be Germany. She, on the one hand, announced its recognition of the referendum results in Turkey, on the other hand, the final tied their attitude towards him with the reports of the OSCE and Council of Europe observers. Well, reports received. So what? Erdogan during his speech in Ankara, said the following in turn: «54, we were kept waiting at EU doors. But now we will sit down and talk and hold a popular vote on this issue. One country - the founders of the EU, the United Kingdom, out of the union. Norway came. We solve the people, we ask him and do as he says. "
Recall that the European Parliament in November 2016 year voted to freeze the negotiations on Turkey's membership in the European Union against the background of continuing economic and trade cooperation between Ankara and Brussels. The EU's share in Turkey's exports of 48,5%, imports - 40%. If the Turks would lose the European market for their economies it would be a disaster. Nevertheless, Ankara pressure on Brussels - whether bluffing, or pursuing some specific goals. Turkish President seems determined to use the plan "B". However, one thing, though Ankara, London, was a member of the EU. Quite another that is not entered into an alliance, it is symbolically holding a referendum on the rejection of European integration. Despite the fact that none of its allies not questioning Turkey's membership in NATO.
As a result, the "European" referendum, the ruling party can get support for the percentage to which Upon purchase there are those that the Party of Justice and Development gleaning during the referendum to amend the Constitution to this foundation to start reformatting of the political system. At the same time Erdogan accused Brussels that EU leaders had "lost Turkey", but rather a strong Turkish opposition can no longer play the "European card". Apparently, such a course of events suit Washington, which, according to the British newspaper The Guardian, «Europe sees in the other circuits."
President Donald Trump called Turkish President, to congratulate him on the results of the referendum. Acting State Department spokesman Mark Toner, commenting on the results of expression, said that "Washington continues to support Ankara and remains committed to the strengthening of bilateral relations," adding: "The United States will continue to support democratic development in Turkey, in which adherence to the law, diversity and freedom of the media are fundamental ". And Erdogan himself states that he "continues to follow a democratic course." One gets the impression that the Americans are absolutely not worried about the fate of the democratic institutions of the European type in Turkey, and the concentration of power in the presidency for them provides more options for their projects in the Middle East.
Then there is its own affair. The fact is that since coming to power in Turkey in 2002, the current ruling Justice and Development US entered the country in the geopolitical experiment zone. He walked a few steps. First wrote about Bill Clinton in his memoirs, "My Life": "In the case of preservation of traditions" secular Muslim democracy Turkey can become for the West gate to the new Middle East, and if peace in the Middle East will be disrupted as a result of the rise of Islamic extremism, the stable democratic Turkey can be a bulwark against contagion in Europe. "
Second phase. The United States began to support the idea of Turkey's transformation into a regional leader in the Unitarian principles, which followed the Ottoman Empire at the end of his days. While the EU, pledging Turkey's integration into the union, sought to maintain in the country a parliamentary system and delay the process of forming a new Ottoman Empire.
The third stage. Brussels, forcing Ankara reform legislation to European standards, led to the fact that this country has become aware of itself multinational and multi-confessional nature. On the political scene brought the Kurdish question, the issue of federalization of Turkey was delivered. In turn, Washington after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 year almost realized the federalization of the country.
The fourth stage. Erdogan began to drift away from the EU, but he was in the arms of the Americans, who after the beginning of the Syrian crisis began to actively support the Kurds. But the US project to transform Turkey into a so-called moderate Islamic country interfere with the parliamentary system. Now she is abolished after the approval of amendments to the Constitution. As a result, the Kemalists are no longer viewed as a bulwark in the way of radical Islam, and Ankara, if it continues to Islamization domestic and foreign policies, risks to transform into Pakistan.
Therefore, it is possible that now in Turkey will begin mass arrests of opposition forces that stand for the preservation of the secular regime. In addition, the nationalists could be struck. Not by chance after the referendum the Turkish experts close to Erdogan harshly criticized the leader of the "National Movement" (MHP) Devlet Bahceli, who had previously entered into an alliance with the ruling party. He was accused that he "did not meet expectations" and now need to "strengthen the split within the IPA."
In Turkey, there comes a season of new elections. Many people in this country understand that the change of the constitution formalized some new trend. But what? And what will happen next?