Can we consider Erdogan steady partner?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking in Istanbul, said that Russia should stop supporting the Syrian President Bashar Assad and act in this Arab country together with the Americans. He hopes "that all this will not be reduced to the actions of the US alone. We expect that Russia will also take part in this - at least, it will stop defending Assad. " Earlier, Erdogan said something completely different. Openly accused Washington of supporting the terrorists IGIL (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation), promised to provide evidence - photographs and video. However, he did not provide it. On the eve of the US missile attack on Syria, the American edition of The National Interest, commenting on the conduct of joint naval exercises by Russia and Turkey in the Black Sea, wrote that such an action "will have serious consequences for the West and the NATO bloc because of Ankara's increasing rapprochement with Moscow ". At the same time, the publication did not forget to mention that "Russia forgave Turkey for such previous sins as a downed Russian Su-24 attack plane and the murder of its ambassador." Now, the UK-based portal Ar Rai Al Youm states that "Erdogan is moving against his ally Putin," in fact, breaking up the alliance with Russia and Iran, which was established in the Syrian direction.
The Turkish president speaks a lot and speaks a lot. His statements require reflection, but, as practice shows, it is not always necessary to make hasty conclusions. In particular, as to how his words about Syrian President Assad can affect the dialogue between Moscow and Ankara. Erdogan is not so independent in his foreign policy, as he tries to publicly present. Suffice it to recall that the failed national coup in Turkey 15 July 2016 preceded his statement on Syria, which was seen by many as a change in Turkish policy towards Damascus. Even now, many Iranian sources allude, Erdogan's position in Turkey remains unstable, and another coup attempt, inspired by Fars, by the Americans, can follow. At the same time, Iranian sources point to the involvement of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Turkish events.
It is no accident, experts say, just before the US missile strike on Syria, the Turkish president paid a visit to Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. In this regard, some Arab publications reported that then Ankara was asked to "mark the course for a gradual distance from Moscow and Tehran" and to restore an alliance with the Saudis and Qatarians on the eve of "the prospects for the administration of Donald Trump to send American forces to Syria and repeat the Libyan scenario there." It is no accident that after a missile attack on the Syrian airfield Erdogan said that his country is ready to support Washington in the event that the United States begins a full-scale military operation in Syria. "Let Trump's words about interference in Syria not remain words. We are ready to support the US operation if it comes to it, "Erdogan said, clearly hinting that he has no guarantees for the implementation of that scenario.
Moreover, when declaring the need to eliminate Assad, he understood perfectly well what position Moscow and Tehran would take on this issue, thus sounding for Trump the formula: "I have done my job, now deal with Putin and Ruhani". However, it remains to be seen whether the behind-the-scenes part of Erdogan's negotiations with the Americans changes their positions on the Kurdish issue, whether the White House agreed to create a buffer zone in northern Syria to prepare the section for influence zones, or, as the UN representative in Syria put it Stefan de Mistura, we are talking about opening "doors to hell in the Middle East" in Syria and redirecting waves of tension and escalation towards Iran.
There is another mystery in this connection, related to the divergence of the positions of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley regarding the future of Assad. "Our goal is to defeat IGIL (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation), which will lead to peace and stability in this region, as well as to getting rid of Iranian influence, which we think causes so many disagreements and serious problems," said Hayley. - The US does not see a peaceful Syria with Assad. " At the same time, Tillerson, on the eve of his visit to Moscow, stressed that "the fate of Assad will be decided by the Syrian people", and "our main priority is the defeat of IGIL (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation). For Erdogan, such a balance of power in the highest echelons of power in the US does not bode well. Perhaps Washington gave a false start to Ankara in order to withdraw it from a shaky, but still alliance with Russia and Iran. But the Turkish president remains an unstable partner for Moscow. How will Russia and Iran respond to another change from Ankara? We will learn all this in the near future.