Is it possible that the appearance on the political map of the world of a new full state education called Kurdistan? Rather, there is no, than yes, since both foreign policy factors and the internal political situation in Kurdistan do not particularly contribute to this.
When regional politicians say that a Kurdistan referendum will blow up the situation in all nearby regions of the Middle East region, then this expression is not used for a red word. And there are many quite acceptable and logical explanations of political, military and even economic sense.
Armenia in any case acquires another friend in the region
In fact, whether a Kurdish referendum in the north of Iraq will take place or not, by and large, this is no longer so important. Barzani will most likely agree to an alternative alternative to the referendum proposed by the Americans and the British. And the formation of a new state on the political map of the world will be postponed for a certain (and maybe even vague) period.
However, today one can already say that Kurdistan has taken place, at least, as a full-fledged player not only on the regional, but also on the international political arena.
As for Armenia, the new full-fledged player in our region, so closely located and also maintaining friendly relations with us - is important in the current extremely difficult situation. It is not in vain that official Yerevan took seriously enough to establish close relations with Erbil. Up to the point that the consulate of Armenia recently opened.
And if the Kurdish referendum does not even take place, it is still necessary to closely cooperate with the Kurdistan. Both politically and economically. After all, it should be understood that Erbil for refusing a referendum will require such dividends and guarantees from the world community that it will quickly become a very serious player in the region.
Oil - a kind of mystical basis for all troubles and tragedies
The fact is that the basis of all the misfortunes that have fallen to Iraq are the oil fields in the territories where the Kurds want to build their desired state - Kurdistan. Speaking about the very oil that, being the basis of the economy of such powerful and developed countries as, for example, Libya, Iraq, Syria, at one time and could not guarantee their independence and security. On the contrary, it was she who caused either the complete collapse of the country (as in the case of Iraq or Libya), or led to the brink of a precipice, collapse and loss of statehood (as in the case of Syria).
And the most interesting is that the leadership of the modern Iraqi autonomy of Kurdistan knows this, probably, better than everyone else in the world. And he still aspires the day before, an hour earlier to hold a referendum. And frankly plans to build statehood, having in zagashnike, only 17 percent of the real economy (the remaining 83 percent is oil exports to Turkey).
Well, Barzani, smart enough and shrewd politician, can not make plans for creating a serious economic infrastructure, relying solely on the availability of oil, since Baghdad itself is fueled by this very oil (the same petroleum fields of Kirkuk). And with Baghdad, Erbil will still have a long and thorough explanation of the territorial integrity of Iraq, since this issue, as shown by the meeting of the Iraqi parliament, has not been resolved. But this is a policy, to which we will return a little later. Meanwhile, speaking of the economy that the Kurds will have to build after the referendum (if any), we will pay attention to neighboring states.
On Iran, which itself, as they say, oil - at least zalis. On Syria, which is exactly the same state. To Turkey, which now, if it exports from Kurdistan, it does not mean that it will act in the same way after the referendum.
After all, all three countries have their own reasons not to recognize the independence of Kurdistan, and in this regard hope that from the very first day it will be possible to work and, by swinging oil, it is not necessary to create infrastructure and economy in a fast way. Moreover, the interrelations of all these states are so intertwined with economics and politics (well, as is usually the case in the Middle East), that all of these should be taken into account.
Simple policy ...
In fact, trying to predict whether a referendum will be successful, and who from regional or world superpowers recognizes its results, it is necessary to take into account a huge number of both global factors and small local features.
At least that in Kurdistan itself, not all Kurds believe that now is the very fateful hour when it is necessary to hold a referendum. Some local (not the smallest) parties are sure that it is first necessary to resume the work of the Kurdish parliament, which was covered in 2015. Moreover, they demand new presidential elections, since for Barzani himself all the terms, as they say, came out.
However, then the logical explanation for both the closure of the parliament and the extension of Barzani's powers were the "knocking on the door" fighters IG, from which I had to fight back in a fairly tough fight. But now it is already clear that they did not just fight off, but also destroyed the enemy. It's time to think about restoring, let's say, constitutional parliamentary (or whatever) norms. And only then it is thoughtful to turn to the topic of the referendum.
This is how the parties "Gorran" and "Islamic group Kurdistan" think at the peak of the "Democratic Party" and the "Kurdish Union". And with this circumstance not to be considered, Erbil simply has no right.
Global Policy ...
As for this perspective, the question is even simpler. Who among the countries that have taken place (albeit in fact, naturally torn by the United States, like Iraq), in sound mind and good memory, will agree to give up part of its territory in favor of another?
Yes you look, as cling to Karabakh and Crimea, respectively, Azerbaijan and Ukraine. Although everyone knows that as part of the first Karabakh never was. And Crimea joined the Crimea under the Soviet Union, when it was considered that the country was all the same, and it is more convenient to administer in the Crimea from Kiev, rather than from Moscow. And when the country collapsed, the Crimea and its population remained "on the other side."
So what to expect today from official Baghdad? To pass "the keys to the apartment, where the money is"? It's not even funny. Of course, it will cling, of course, it can even reach a stalwart war - after all, among other things, oil is something everyone needs. And Baghdad needs Kirkuk no less than Erbil.
Well, we should not talk about why the neighbors will not recognize the formation of the new state - Iran (eight million Kurdish population), Turkey (18 million), Syria (two million). After all, in all countries, areas with Kurdish populations are adjacent to the Iraqi border in the northern part, where Barzani plans to create Kurdistan.
All clear? And to make it even clearer, we will specifically say that the West will not allow the Kurds to organize an independent state exclusively within the framework of northern Iraq. Not for that the Western antiterrorist coalition naturally from scratch created and armed, trained the Peshmerga, so that they then do not muddle the water in the region. In order not to pull Syria and Iran to protect their compatriots (well, to the territorial claims, of course, very quickly it will come).
And geopolitics are all against Barzani
Well, we can not even talk about the geopolitical situation in the region. Here everything is mixed up worse than in the Oblonsky house. Superpowers in the person of the United States, Russia, even China - all have their own interests. Everyone is trying to increase their influence in the region, dictate their conditions.
The American desperately needs to cut out the Russians to the south. For the sake of this, even the Iraq of 15 years are bombed, and even Syria is six years old. And the States need the local oil and logistics for this oil. In order to pump the local to Europe and throw Russia out of the energy market.
Of course, Russia does not want to tolerate this. Not in vain took a risk in Syria and won, figuratively speaking, a jackpot. Now the Americans have nothing to do here. Well, except that the Kurds should be peddled so that they, together with the Iraqis, would fight against Assad and separate a solid piece from Syria along with the oil fields along the Euphrates.
No wonder the Americans began to talk about the need to postpone the Kurdish referendum exactly at the time when Barzani (who is also a very smart politician) said that the new state undertakes not to claim an iota of the territory of neighboring Kurdish-populated states.
Such a Kurdistan is not needed by an American. Yes, and will not pull Peshmerga against, say, the Iranian, Turkish, even the Syrian army. Although they were trained by their Western instructors, they armed themselves - but still will not pull. It takes time, which (if a referendum is held), Barzani will not.
When they say that a Kurdistan referendum could cause such an explosion in the region, that Syrian events will seem like a trifle, that's all (and much more) have in mind. And they understand this, it seems, all the participants of the global game unfolding in the region. That is why, it seems, the other day, having familiarized with the alternative option offered by Iraqi Kurds to Americans, British and UN representatives, Barzani will agree to postpone the referendum. All such an intermediate decision should be made.