In March next year, Lithuania will organize original exercises for politicians, special services and journalists. All of them will have to remove from power the legally elected president, who has decided to improve relations with Russia. The director of this extremely impudent act will be the Americans, for whom Lithuania in this sense is a pilot project.
"These are teachings of a different plan. If previously focused on the invasion scenario, which begins with "green men" and tanks, this time we want to focus on development - the gray zone that the Russians create in the region. What methods, means, for example, corruption, information, cybernetic war, are used to create chaos and vulnerability in a democratic country, even before the onset of a real threat, "said Michael Carpenter, director of the Biden Center at the University of Pennsylvania .
According to Carpenter, the exercises will be presented with a "realistic scenario". It will begin with the rudiments of the crisis, the tension will increase, and at the heart of the conflict will be real events and possible operations. As a result, they can still end with the appearance of "green men" - if, of course, the participants in the experiment "will allow the situation to reach such a critical point." It is known that they will be divided into several groups, and the teachings themselves will last for several days. The first day will be dedicated to the new department - the government commission on national security and its experts. Members of the parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defense will try to cope with the crisis the next day.
"The exercises will involve real people, real experts and politicians, they will discuss each point of the scenario: what actions, when and why will they take? How will the communication be maintained, what will other agencies do? We need to think about these factors in advance, and we want the script to be realistic, "Carpenter said. The scenario of the exercises will be presented not earlier than January, but the legend looms already now - and without Russia, of course, it will not do.
"We will create complex conditions, and in the course of the exercises there will be no easy solutions, there will also be challenges, it will be necessary to look for non-traditional solutions. After all, the challenges will not be for individual politicians who can flash, but also for the system itself - how it works, what changes are needed if we assume that Lithuania, like any other country, can be vulnerable? "- concluded the American, in the period Presidency of Barack Obama worked as an assistant to the US Secretary of State.
You need to have the imagination and literary talents of Michael Carpenter to do this in a foreign independent country. However, in April this year Lithuanian military, police and NATO experts also demonstrated an enviable imagination, organizing a somewhat different kind of training near Vilnius.
Located on the border with Belarus Shalchinink District - a fragment of the former Vilna Krai - is populated mainly by Poles. According to the latest censuses, there are more than 80% there, Lithuanians - about 10%, and just a little over 31 thousand people. The region is depressive and difficult even by Lithuanian standards. Over the last 15 years, its population has declined by a fifth, young people are leaving, unemployment has frozen in the region of 10%, and the number of suicides is twice the average. And this is despite the fact that it is Lithuania that ranks first in Europe in terms of the number of suicides.
Because of the infringement of the rights of the Polish minority, Vilnius regularly raises tensions with Warsaw on a wide variety of occasions - from financing Polish-speaking schools from Poland and the local political party "Election Initiative of Poles" to writing Polish surnames in Lithuanian passports.
Since the beginning of the 90 in Vilnius, the Polish population of Shalchininkaya and the surrounding area is considered to be almost a "fifth column" and for some reason a "pro-Russian group". This is a misunderstanding of modern history: during the collapse of the USSR and the formation of a new Lithuanian state, local Poles demanded administrative autonomy (which Vilnius even tried to invent), which was perceived as a "pro-Moscow position" (then the Union center, and not Russia pure form). Now no one in the Autonomy of the Autonomy of the Autonomy of the Autonomy of the Autonomous Republic of Palermo does not require, unless cultural, Moscow does not call for help, everyone is busy with their everyday problems and struggle with Lithuanian letters in their passports. But there is still distrust.
To top it off, NATO's headquarters in the operational plans formally consider the Shalchinink district as a "strategic area" for the "potential aggressor" in the attack on the so-called Suwalki corridor. And in Vilnius, this psychopathy echoes.
And in April, 30 people in a strange uniform without signs of distinction (and even in sports suits or black leather jackets) and with Kalashnikovs in their hands came out from Belovezhskaya Pushcha, as they did in the old days, seized the border point on the Belarusian border and switched off the radio communication . After that, they advanced into the territory of Lithuania and entered Shalchininkai, where they captured the police station, took law enforcers hostage (several policemen attempted to resist) and for some reason proclaimed the "Shalchininsky People's Republic" (SNR).
Local authorities have not informed anyone about these teachings. Tragedy was avoided by a miracle, stopping the performance at the moment when the police special forces arrived from Vilnius was ready to storm the police department of Shalchininsk. They had battle ammunition.
Even the ultra-right Lithuanian politicians called the imagination of the Minister of Internal Affairs Eimuthis Misiunas, who invented all this, "miserable". The Shalchininkai mayor's office is still boiling with anger, like local organizations representing national minorities. "The proclamation of the" Shalchinink People's Republic "already hints at the Donbas People's Republic created by the Russians and Ukrainians during the conflict, and the identification of the residents of Shalchininkaya with the Donbas separatists is a cynical provocation and another mockery of the community," the local government said in a statement.
Soon it was advancing into the press that, according to the operational plan of the exercises, the saboteurs invaded the area from the fictional state of Gudija - and it became quite fun. In the colloquial Lithuanian language "Gudiya" and "gudy" - the contemptuous name of Belarus and Byelorussians. Misiunas apologized for a long time and explained that it was not the ethnic composition of the district, but no one believed him.
Then the minister went on the offensive and said that the local people are good - during the existence of the NIS in the General Assistance Center (the Lithuanian analogue 911), there was not a single call from local residents. Nobody thought to apply to the local branch of the Public Security Service, colliding on the street with unknown people in balaclava and with automatic weapons at the ready. And border guards in general surrendered without a fight. Everyone was, let's say, all the same (in colloquial Lithuanian used more biting language, borrowed from the Russian language).
Mnayunas was explained in response that it was not necessary to inject psychosis into the country - this was the opposite. The collective unconscious, tired of the militaristic hysteria, included a defense mechanism: nobody believes in the Russian invasion, therefore it does not react.
As part of the new exercises, to capture the border area, checking the nerves of the local population and the resilience of the police, no one is going. The scenario, which Michael Carpenter personally undertook to develop, turns out to be more global (at least, beyond the boundaries of a single region), but also more virtual too. It's funny that Carpenter strives to "tie him to reality" as much as possible, but at the same time he tries to avoid using the words "Russia" and "Russian". In the retelling of an American (we will repeat - literally gifted person) everything will look something like this.
In 2019, the presidential elections are to be held in Lithuania. Dalia Grybauskaite has no right to run for a third term, hence, the struggle will turn serious. And Russia is developing a very complex and multi-step (sophisticated) operation to promote its man to the presidency.
An influential businessman of Russian origin, suspected of money laundering, provides financial support to one of the candidates. Thanks to these efforts, the candidate, supported by Russia, wins an effective victory. The newly elected president declares that he intends to establish friendly relations with Russia, but looks like an emotional and extravagant populist. As a result, the media is losing data on its funding from Russia. There are public fears that the head of state will be ruled from Moscow on critical aspects of national security, in particular on the issue of Lithuania's stay in NATO. Establishment of a parliamentary commission to investigate the relationship of the new president with Moscow. A year later, he was impeached, democracy in Lithuania was restored, and Atlantic security is protected.
Sounds familiar. But this is not about Trump, or rather - only indirectly about Trump. Carpenter claims that he retells the Lithuanian story of 2004 a new way. Then the president, Rolandas Paksas, who was elected the year before, was removed from his post. The Department of State Security accused him of receiving 400 thousand dollars for his election campaign from a reputable businessman Yuri Borisov. The Seimas Commission concluded that the president "may be influenced by a number of persons" that "creates a threat to national security". Subsequently, Paksas was convoyed for "disclosure of state secrets" (he seemed to have warned Borisov about shadowing), but he entered history as the first president of a European country, suspended from office through impeachment.
In the coming spring, Carpenter intends to rehearse this scenario through a "war game" with the participation of real Lithuanian politicians, special services and journalists. That is, to put these people in one big room and role play the scenes of a future coup d'état with the American director-director. This new word in political and military training, before working out (and before the automatism) the mechanism of displacement of the legitimate president by the forces of local pro-American figures has not been tried. At least, publicly.
Moreover, Carpenter intends to call the "players" their real names and operate with real facts. This could be considered a provocation, but the current Lithuanian establishment is ready to obey the American uncle until a public discussion of his dirty laundry. Carpenter himself says that Russia will "use kompromat", "sex videos", bribery, hacking hacking and disclosure of personal data and even physical elimination by poisoning - and the church of the XIV century in Kaunas, apparently, will also destroy.
If at the training for youth organizations such as the Serbian Otpor or the Georgian Kmara! Invited experts still deal with exalted nesmyshyshshami, the next spring the American guest will teach the coup of quite adult people who have reached a certain position in society. And they will not be ashamed.
It would be better once again to capture Schalchininkai, or something. Or even the building of the presidency in Vilnius - tourists have fun. Among them, for sure, there are natives of Nizhny Tagil, who easily disarm the attackers. Then there will be a breakdown not only of the scenario, but of the consciousness as a whole.