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Trap for Turkey. Or what did Erdogan put in the fall of Afrina?

Trap for Turkey. Or what did Erdogan put in the fall of Afrina?

Tags: Turkey, Army, War in the Middle East, Syria, Militants, Analytics, Politics, Kurds,

Turkey's interventions in Syria since the beginning of the civil war were usually directed, directly or indirectly, against the legitimate authorities in the Syrian Arab Republic, and they did not cease in that status after Turkey became involved in the Astana process. Apparently the ultimate goal was to break the republic for territorial acquisitions at its expense. And it gets more and more confirmation, although there were no such accusations from the VPR of Russia in its address. But, as the events in Africa show, the situation may turn out to be a trap for the Turkish army, moreover, much worse than the situation in the north of the province of Aleppo. And this can, if not do away with Turkish ambitions, then make Turkey "surrender".

And the ambitions are large-as evidenced by the posting on the Turkish-controlled "proxy" signs that this is the territory of the Kilis province of Turkey, the flags on the administrative buildings and attempts to set up "observation posts" on the clear line of the future offensive to unblock Foa and Kafrai in Idlib and other actions from threats Americans before the threats of the Greeks to resolve disputable issues by force. Yesterday, the day before yesterday in Idlib, the column of the Turkish army was again circling (it was the same as a week ago, it was not salting), but it had already put up posts in Al Aisa, Serakib and at a helicopter airbase east of Foa and Kafraya. That is, in fact, they are trying to set up blocs to protect their militants in Syria and keep them in control over the seized Syrian land.

Information board in the zone of the "Euratsk Shield" in the north of the province of Aleppo. He says it's Kilis and not Aleppo.

Turkish Column in Idlib.

Airbase Taftanaz, Al-Ace is approximately on the same line. Serakib to the south (beyond the edge of the map - leading to the highway ends on the lower edge of the map).

The Turks said they were going to take control of the "hotbed of terrorism" - the Kurdish canton of Afrin. But for 17 days of operation their successes are very modest judging by the progress on the published maps - that the Turkish ones are the others. The declared successes in the destruction of the Kurdish militia by facts are not confirmed. As well as not the fact that the evidence of success is the seized areas. At least because the Kurds have not lost the possibility of armed struggle. Remembering the statement of Suvorov, the enemy retreating is not a defeated one. This also motivates the abandonment by the Kurds of a system of fortifications on the border line. Why they built a separate issue. But sit in them and leave the initiative to the Turks and let them just shoot themselves with artillery and aviation. Therefore, the hands of the Kurds are unleashed, although they had to leave a number of border settlements.

Moreover, the other day Kurds received reinforcements from Mancbidia in the form of a huge convoy of infantry with light weapons. Through the territory controlled by the government. What they bought a pass is unknown. According to various estimates - up to 1,5 thousand "bayonets"!

Arrival of the Kurdish convoy.

This is a very large force relative to the number of Turks and their "proxy" estimated in 6-10 thousand soldiers + an unknown number of "green". Therefore, further advancement of the Turks can be fully connected with the risk of a counterattack, a fire bag, or even a night pogrom of isolated avant-gardes. This will make losses unacceptable, as well as delaying the operation - at its cost. What is characteristic or the Turks do not have intelligence or something else happened but there was no blow to the column. Or, for some reason, Turkey, for some reason, does not inflict air strikes in recent days (evil tongues have advanced the version that ours was forbidden for Su-25!), Or is it an attempt to drag Kurds into the Afrina trap. Although it is very logical to drown this column in a sea of ​​fire. And again there were allegations that at first the government did not let the Kurds and then allowed (the Turks did not believe in such "meanness"). And it seems as if the trigger for the SAR was the deployment of Turkish outposts in Idlib.

And now the question arises: is Erdogan's failure in Africa fraught? Or is he like a clever demagogue justified without much loss for his reputation and his charisma? Or is his bet on the victory over the Kurds in Africa, not even Syria, equivalent to "victory or death" ?! What will be a failure for him? End of career? And for the country - Khasavyurt? Moreover, the military propaganda of the operation is very strong in Turkey and the worse will be the failure!

Although it may be that this is another trap for the Kurds. After all, they obviously weakened the cover of most of Rozhava from the Turks by transferring reinforcements to Afrin and, rather, the front with IGIL, than they will not fail to take advantage of. However, what is the essence of the transaction for the admission of Kurdish militants in Afrin is unknown. Or is it still the good will of the government of Syria, which officially does not recognize Turkish troops on its territory in any capacity and in fact opposes the invasion ?! But there is also such an aspect that in the operation Turkey has used so far less than 1 / 33 the number of its Land Forces. Does this mean that the transfer of reinforcements by the Kurds to Afrin could lead to the fact that for Manbij, for example, the twenty-thousandth grouping of the Turkish troops is being torn and its Kurds will have nothing to stop? Of course, not all forces of the troops can use Turkey, at least half of them will remain to cover the borders. But nevertheless, the country has people in the mobilization reserve according to various estimates from 90 to 300 thousand.

But if the Turks have a bad situation and in reality they have a failure both in the organization of military operations and especially the training of infantry, and with the money for the operation (for the fact that relatively little money for the purchase of S-400 and nuclear power plant construction is loans, the budget of the country is less than the budget of Russia by about 1 / 5 !!!) but nevertheless it is clearly billions of dollars from them that will come out taking into account the cost of American controlled aerial bombs, fuel, nemeryannogo number of other munitions. However, who knows, maybe now the pace of the operation is related to the fact that money is inadequate? After all, it would seem that such a small-scale war effort in Yemen costs the same Saudi Arabia in tens of billions a year. Here, in my opinion, the possible budget of the operation in Africa and Rust (although it could be anything, in fact) -2,2 billion dollars was sounded in my opinion. Free of charge, what do the Turks roll armored vehicles on tractors because even on the resource of engines they try to save (less often to change engines). In general, Turkey's military spending in 2018 was expected at the level of 26 billion. However, if Qatar pays for the "banquet" as its main ally ...

It is possible that Erdogan is given the opportunity to self-assure about the Kurds himself. So that he understood the limits of his forces and stopped dreaming of the land outside the state border. Granted that during the memorable meeting in Moscow, the heads of the Turkish General Staff and Shoigu spoke for themselves shortly before the start of the operation in Africa. The Turk understood what he was getting into and asked for, but he understood Shoigu even better. So he allowed himself to smile: "And try! Let's, self-assemble!" "I do not want to myself," the Turk answered, "but the highly respected President Erdogan ...".

The near future should show whether it will be possible to give a lesson to the Turkish leader so that in Syria they finally cease to kill and Syria could become united without the Turkish "wants" of the territories. And the Turkish army will finally collect the manatka and get to her, taking away her "green" ones. They can easily settle on those lands where the Kurds were driven off.

By the way, I will propose here a version of what the Kurds paid for the right to help Afrina. They, I think, agreed to give the government of the territory an eastern pooh, with the deposits. Let's see which of me "Vanga" turned out ... And then with minimal interference from the Kurds, the government of the SAR will be able to finish off the IGIL.


And, yes, the games around Afrina can still generate that "catharsis" for the formation of the Kurdish community which has not yet been and is not expected. Gratuitously, among the arrivals to Afrin, even the detachments of Iraqi Kurds and Sanjar Yezidis are called to the aid !!!

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