Polls have shown that the leader of the "National Front" Marine Le Pen for the first time outstripped by the popularity of his main rival, former French Prime Minister Fillon. Its electorate is not extended by the wealthiest segment of society - employees and workers. But does this mean that it will actually be able to become president?
From published on Wednesday by the weekly Paris Match poll results shows that the rating the chairman of the party "National Front" presidential candidate Marine Le Pen for the first time ahead of a rival rating from the party "Union for a Popular Movement," the former prime minister, center-right, Francois Fillon.
Recall, the presidential elections scheduled for April 23, the possible second round - on May 7. According to the poll Le Pen regarded as the winner in the first round with about 26,5% of the vote. Fillon is located on the second place with almost 25% of the vote. At the same time, RIA "News", who left the post of prime minister of France in order to participate in the elections, Manuel Valls, according to the poll, gaining 17% of the vote.
On Wednesday, Fillon announced its readiness to hold a debate with Le Pen, if they both come out in the second round. Speaking on BFMTV channel, he criticized opponents and the press, which represent its position in the caricature. "I suddenly found a candidate who wants to make the French work longer for lower wages, which tends to dismiss all the police, doctors, teachers, which pays Vladimir Putin. I am convinced that this incredible wave of criticism only make people turn away from those who circulate ", - the politician said.
In late December, the newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche made a rating of the most popular French. Traditionally, the top ranking settled artists (the first position occupied comedian Omar Sy), but Le Pen took 37-th line, and Fillon - only 42-yu.
Earlier this week, the results of a survey presented by the electoral Odoxa. More than half of respondents believe that an independent candidate, former economy minister Emmanuel Macron will be a better president than Fillon, 57% of respondents "bad opinion" of Fillon. At the same time former prime minister lost popularity 12% from November.
Regarding the comparison of Fillon with former Prime Minister Manuel Waltz votes almost equally divided: 49% support Fillon and 48% - Waltz. And according to a recent survey of Kantar Sofres OnePoint, Waltz, who are predicting victory in the first round of the primaries of the left forces, scheduled in late January, it is likely to give way to the second round of the primaries to another candidate, and also the former Minister of Economy - Arnaud Montebourg.
Chairman of the Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots France, French writer Dmitry Koshko believes that if Fillon did not pass the second round, Le Pen is likely to have to deal with Macron centrist, not a socialist Waltz.
"We Makron more likely because it is supported by many of the oligarchs. Although he has no vehicle, no party. Fillon to the right, probably the one who has the best chance. It is very difficult to predict exactly what the chances of Marine Le Pen, as many Frenchmen refuse to answer the question of sociologists. So the polls are not very reliable. So it was with surveys about Brexit and Trump ", - said the Cat LOOK newspaper. "If the Socialist Waltz climbs to second place, it can win" - he believes.
Koshko notes that the "National Front" in its rhetoric before the elections showed two trends at once. First, conventionally left, holds the vice-president Florian Filippo. "It's more social. They say it was inspired by the former Minister of Defence and Home Affairs Jean-Pierre Chevènement, who was in favor of independence from France, the United States, "- said the source. According to him, thanks to Filippo Marine Le Pen receives popular support, "including among employees, workers - those whom Francois Hollande called the" toothless "that is, the poor, from the" bottom of France. "
Another trend - the more traditional for the party and much more right. "She is represented by the granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen (the founder of the" Front ") - Marion Maréchal-Le Pen - the youngest deputy in the National Assembly. If the representatives of these two trends quarrel, it hurt "National Front" - said the expert, adding that Marine Le Pen is to be contained in both, since it needs the support of their constituents.
The leading expert of the Center for Social Problems of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sergei Fedorov, also caught a change in the pre-election rhetoric of Le Pen. As Fedorov points out, some French analysts say that many of the slogans of her election campaign are largely borrowed from the left, the socialists, and even from the Communists. "She herself says that without reliance on a broad electorate - in our understanding this is a certain populism - presidential elections are not won. Therefore, in his pre-election rhetoric Le Pen uses social moments, which in content bring it closer to some of the left representatives of this presidential race. In particular, there is some similarity between the extremely left-wing Jean-Luc Melanchon and some of his theses, "Fedorov told VZGLYAD.
According to him, if there will be no surprises in the second round will be released Fillon and Le Pen. "The rest of the contenders for the presidency fundamentally inferior to them in all the polls. Polls give primacy of the Fillon, the Le Pen, which has recently risen higher. From behind their main competitors - Macron and Waltz. While this trend is not broken "- summed up Fedorov.