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10.04.2017 - 09: 21

Merkel could come to Moscow to talk about Ukraine. And about Poland?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is leaving for Moscow - the Russian capital waiting for her 2 of May. This was announced last Saturday, 8 April, the German magazine Der Spiegel, on whose publication drew attention to the Polish edition, although not yet had time to comment on the news. A detail which lead German journalists, can not cause a reaction in Warsaw. Let us give them the Polish portal Dziennik.pl.

Chancellor's decision to meet President Vladimir Putin at his home is a turn in its policy towards Russia, according to Der Spiegel. In fact, until recently, Merkel considers that the conditions of the visit must be "success in Ukraine and Syria." Hence it can be considered as the Chancellor trip, came into the fight in the run-up to elections in September this year in the German Bundestag, not only the "unusual step" but also evidence of serious concern for the head office of the international situation. Citing sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany, the publication states that if Berlin fears a lack of resolve in the United States after coming to power of President Donald Trump would allow Putin to feel strong enough to force the split of Ukraine. Accordingly, a great loss for Merkel's reputation would be an agreement between Washington and Moscow, destroying the Minsk process, which the Chancellor considers its considerable merit.

In this situation, it could be a mediator between Trump and Putin in view of the fact that at a recent meeting of the American President and the Chancellor in the US, according to Der Spiegel, it was mostly about Ukraine. "The Federal Chancellery wants to get Americans back in the game - the paper concludes. - As Washington Kiev without pressure does not show the necessary flexibility. " However, the visit to Moscow will be for Merkel advantageous in terms of domestic policy, regardless of the outcome of negotiations with the Russian president. Social Democratic Party of Germany is planning during the election campaign for the Bundestag to attack the Chancellor for the "hostile attitude" toward Russia. In turn, as a deputy of the parliamentary faction of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) Rolf Myuttsenih, "we do not rush to Putin on his neck, but the focus on dialogue." Thus itself talks in Moscow will give reason to Merkel to talk his opponents in Germany, she "tried to improve relations with the Kremlin."

But equally, regardless of the outcome of negotiations with the Russian president's visit to Russia Chancellor creates another unpleasant surprise for the Polish diplomacy, which since the early 2017 year was too often missing telling blows. Middle East and kaleidoscopic mosaic becomes now the first sign of a stable-looking policy on the lines of Eastern Europe - Baltic - Russian. Warsaw with its foreign policy concept had inherited the ruling party "Law and Justice» (PiS) from the age of Baraka Obamy and Hillary Clinton all had a hard time responding to new challenges. Attempts to negotiate with Germany, Poland, taken the last time during the meeting 7 February this year in Warsaw with Prime Minister Beatoy Shidlo, Poland's president Andzheem Dudoy and president of PiS Yaroslavom Kachinskim, have shown their "effectiveness" during the re-election of President of the European Council. Recall that in March this position contrary to the requirements of Poland was re-elected her ex-Prime Minister Donald Tusk. And she Warsaw put itself in opposition to many EU countries and the largest center-right European People's Party, which includes Christian-democratic and conservative parties and defends the idea of ​​strengthening the EU today.

Thus, almost the only area where Poland could implement its foreign policy initiatives was the east. But even here it has recently been waiting for the big failures. About Ukraine and say nothing. IA REGNUM already informed, that Polish experts openly write about this state as "failed", especially given the recent shelling of the Consulate General in Lutsk. At the same time Vice-President of the Christian-Conservative Party 'rights of the Republic »(Prawica Rzeczypospolitej) Marian Pilka, the platform which will provide a respectable Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, demands from Warsaw to make adjustments in its policy with regard to Ukraine, recognizing that" it is not Poland, but the US and Britain guaranteed in 1994, the territorial integrity of Ukraine after its renunciation of nuclear weapons, and it is not Poland, and Germany and France, Ukraine has chosen its mediators in the negotiations with Russia. " By and large, Warsaw is not less than in Moscow has reason to Berlin to talk about "the split of Ukraine."

Attempts to get closer to Minsk ended in failure after a sharp reversal of the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who hinted at the involvement of Poland of provoking unrest in his country. At the same time in Lithuania in the report "Review of the threats to national security", which is published annually by the State Security Department, there is a conclusion that the execution of the Treaty on good neighborliness and friendly relations with Poland concluded in 1994 year, it would be useful for Russia. Special emotions in Poland and Polonia called words, that "if the Polish community had exclusive rights, this would give Russia and the groups who are under its influence, the occasion to demand the same rights for the Russian community in the Baltic States." The pro-government Gazeta Polska openly critical of the Polish Foreign Ministry, accusing him of the fact that "we are in a bitter struggle with Vilnius" because of its "anti-Polish action" and "demand that the Poles in Belarus not to interfere in politics and stay far away from the opposition." At the same time the Polish diplomacy itself represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Mareka Zhulkovskogo include "Belarusian issue" during talks with German colleague Markus Ederer to "talk about Polish-German relations and security in Central and Eastern Europe" context.

Considering also be taking place from the beginning of this year, the presence of the Bundeswehr contingent in Lithuania, Vilnius and intensify dialogue in Berlin, begins to take shape puzzle, in which the Polish-Lithuanian, Polish-Belarusian and Polish-Ukrainian relations, an important factor is the presence of Germany. Hence the question whether in this case, be that in the German press announced the meeting in Moscow, Chancellor Merkel and President Putin to discuss the conflict resolution mechanism in Ukraine will do without thinking on what to do in Russia and Germany and Poland? Theoretically, such a possibility exists, but in practice it looks unrealistic. Warsaw periodically gave and gives to know about their concerns regarding the possible some "secret conspiracy" between Moscow and Berlin over Poland. But then sprinkle ashes on his head in the case of what will have to Poles. As they say in this case the French, "you wanted it, Georges Dandin!".

A source: A REGNUM

Author: Stanislav Stremidlovsky

Tags: Germany, Merkel, Russia, Putin, Poland, Politics, International Relations, Research, Europe