The whole world is discussing how the events in Syria will develop in the foreseeable future after the treacherous American missile strike at the Shayrat airbase. The options are discussed differently, down to the most disastrous. But even against this background, the following message looks especially frightening: "The joint command center of military operations in Syria, which includes representatives of Iran, Iraq, Russia, Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, said that after attacking Shairat, the United States crossed the" red line ". And further: "From now on, we will respond with the use of force to any aggression or any intersection of the" red line "in any form. And America knows that we can respond well. "
It looks almost as a declaration of the president of the alliesBashar al-Assadwar to Washington. But how serious is this? Who signed this document on behalf of Moscow? And since when has the Joint Command Center for Combat Operations in Syria since 2015 in Baghdad been authorized to make important foreign policy statements that are customary to hear at least at the level of defense ministers or foreign ministers?
According to the RIA Novosti news agency, the main functions of the Joint Center are "to collect, process, summarize and analyze current information on the situation in the Middle East region in the context of the struggle against the Islamic state," its distribution according to its intended purpose, and the prompt transfer to the general headquarters of the countries indicated. " The leadership of this work is carried out serially by officers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Syria, Iraq and Iran on a rotational basis. Change occurs every three months. All! There is not a single word about any foreign-policy powers of this strictly coordination body of military command.
Therefore, most likely, said the statement is not particularly serious. Especially because the first of its kind published "Eelam group al-Harbi." And then the news was picked up by many leading news agencies of the world.
But whether this is the fact that a purely military-technical response to Assad's allies, the United States attack on Shayratu not follow? Of course not. On the contrary, such a reaction is bound to be. Joint measures for certain military leaders discussed the most active way. As evidenced in my view, a very significant fact: the very next day after the bombing of the airbase Shayrat held an urgent phone callChief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Army General Valery Gerasimovnot with the head of the Pentagon. Obviously, in Moscow we found that with such a turn of events with the subject of conversation is pointless. No, the first thing Gerasimov contacted his Iranian counterpartmajor general Mohammad Hossein Bagheri.
Lively contacts between Moscow and Tehran immediately arose, and at other levels of the military and political leadership. On the same day, they exchanged views on the latest developments in Syria, Secretary of the Board of Iran and Russian SecurityAli Shamhani и Nikolai Patrushev. What they said - we, of course, no one will tell. But perhaps a certain echo of these discussions and has become "a statement of the Joint Command Center", more like a very hot political fake.
However, based on recent events, we can try to imagine what could be the next defense activities scheduled, apparently Gerasimov and Bagheri.
It is clear that it was almost certain of an immediate and substantial strengthening of the anti-missile system to Syria. With the weapon for this delay should not be. The required number of anti-aircraft missile systems and air defense radars, our country is able to quickly put Damascus from its reserves. Worse prepared calculations. Their little the Syrians, and more to take virtually nowhere. Is that for the controls sit Russian and Iranian military advisors. The number of which then in this country would have greatly multiplied.
Perhaps interlocutors recalled, for example, the Iranian air base Hamedan. The same one which in August 2016 year landed a group of Russian heavy bombers Tu-22M3, the better to carry out raids on the militants stormed the Syrian city of Aleppo. Before this work had to do with our airport Mozdok. But flights there demanded to take on board a large supply of fuel to the detriment of ammunition. Therefore, it turned out not as efficient as we would like.
An agreement with the Iranians on the temporary use of Hamadan was the way out. But this lasted the military-political idyll is only a few days. Defense Ministry diplomatically stated that more than we do not need to go back to Mozdok. Unofficially - Tehran was dissatisfied with the progress of premature publicity in the press operation. And to break the agreement.
But even so. Who in the new conditions prevents our country again to talk about this? And that significantly enhance the grouping of RF FSI in the Middle East?
Obviously, a new breath and it is not excluded, the support of Moscow in the near future will have a long-standing Tehran's plans to acquire its own naval base on the Mediterranean coast of Syria. And - in the province of Latakia. That is at hand from the Russian point of logistics in the port of Tartus.
Harness the Mediterranean Sea, Iranian Navy began in 2012 year. Then, with the consent of Egypt several warships and auxiliary vessels flying the flag of Iran for the first time here passed through the Suez Canal. Then held joint exercises with the military sailors Syria.
Talks on this topic with renewed vigor broke out in November last year. Then the divisional general Mohammad Hossein Bagheri said that one of the main directions of Iran's military strategy is "to obstruct the access of the probable enemy to the Iranian territory." Including - through measures that will prevent the approach of "his warships to the shores of the country." Including - from the Mediterranean Sea. According to Bagheri, the establishment of bases located far from Iranian territory has almost the same containment effect as an atomic bomb. Only much stronger.
Based on this, I am sure the Iranian general, subordinate to the fleet must be present in these waters as active as in the Gulf of Oman. Which without a permanent naval base in Tehran not provide Syria. With the consent of Damascus, such a step could be a problem for sure not. Iranians so long and firmly present in this country, so many they must personally Assad that the Syrian leadership for agreeing to deal exactly will not. The only problem is the reaction of foreign players in the region. First of all - the US and Israel.
Most of the news aroused, as might be expected, Tel Aviv. Israelis get near by military forces of primordial and powerful enemy was not smiling.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusoon rushed to seek justice in Moscow allied to Iran. In the Russian capital March 9 2017, he said: "We see that Iran is trying to build an army and military infrastructure in Syria and also to establish a seaport on the Mediterranean Sea. All of this could have serious implications for the security of Israel, but also for the entire region. "
Israeli leader explainedRussian President Vladimir Putinthe Jewish state's position in regard to the conservation of the Iranian presence in Syria after reaching a peaceful settlement in the country. According to Netanyahu, this position is that Israel is "resolutely opposed to this agreement in the framework of Iran and its puppets have kept a military presence in Syria."
Most likely, Putin, then the concern of high visitor from Tel Aviv met with understanding. Perhaps even I asked a guest about something in return. And somehow even managed to influence Iran's declaration concerning the urgent construction of naval base in Latakia. Because virtually immediately from Tehran followed a sudden that's quite a statement: "Iran is going to build a military base in Syria." These are the wordsDeputy Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Political Affairs Rasul Sanai Rada. He called the Western media reports about plans to establish a military base in the Iranian Syrian Latakia "information hype."
But the same can not be imagined that the subordinate chief Iranian military commander just took and seriously denied the words of their own chief? All this strongly smelled diplomatic game. And the intention to put the ships in Syrian berths Iran really have not gone away. Because they are not dictated by the momentary situation and long-term geopolitics of Iran.
And now, a new alignment in this game. Israel has not only supported the American attack on Shayratu, but also actively provide its own military assets. And that certainly devalued March verbal agreement with Putin. Then why Putin does not play back with the Iranians in trouble with their new naval base in Latakia?
It seems to many that in fact such a base is not at all terrible for the American 6 fleet and Israel. Because Iran does not have enough modern combat ships of the far sea and ocean zones, capable of creating the necessary level of threat for the enemy. And this is absolutely true. Three more or less modern submarines of the Russian construction of the project 877EKM class Kilo, destroyers "Sabalan", "Alvand" and "Bushehr." The rest - obsolete junk or ships of small displacement and boats, capable of operating only near their own coast. Indeed, not enough even for a reliable defense of the Persian Gulf. The dreams of a rivalry with the Americans in the Mediterranean far from Iran seem groundless.
But, firstly, today the revival of Iran's navy began to actively promote China, which strongly suggests Tehran diesel submarines own construction.
Second, this market does not want to lose and Russia. In February 2016 yearsIranian Defense Minister Hossein dehgansI paid a visit to Russia. We discussed our supply arms to Iran for a total of about eight billion dollars. In particular it was a question about the coastal mobile missile complexes "Bastion", Russian frigates and diesel-electric submarines.
Third, Iran in recent years, unfolds its large shipbuilding program. Construct a series of class "Moudzh" destroyers. For several years in the world strongly suggest that Tehran will soon undertake even for the creation of a domestic carrier.
So it is possible that the basis for the Iranians will Latakia than arm.
But the main thing, I think, is not even ships. What is more frightening for both Americans and Israelis is the new Iranian high-precision cruise missiles of long range Soumar, which in such situations could be quickly delivered to Syria and placed on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. Their range is about 3000 kilometers. What allows to shoot through not only this sea, but to hit objects even in the Baltic. And this is serious for anyone. Moreover, according to the German newspaper Die Welt, Tehran has already successfully tested these weapons two months ago. However, on that day Soumar flew "only" 600 kilometers. But this is also very much.
Rumors of the existence of this missile Iran has appeared in the March 2015 years. Trying to understand, if not the most technologically advanced country so quickly managed to create quite a modern means of shock defeats, Western experts first of all drew attention to the striking exterior Soumar resemblance to Soviet / Russian cruise missile air-based X-55. I immediately realized someone actually required to be bad news. Even here without Ukraine is not exactly happened.
This March 2005, in an interview with British newspaper "Times Fayneshnl" first recognized thenProsecutor General of Ukraine Svyatoslav Piskun. According to him, during the presidencyVictor YushchenkoKiev company "Progress", a subsidiary of "Ukrspetsexport", was made a criminal deal. False documents six Kh-55 and a set of CCW-120 test equipment were secretly supplied to Iran. Another six have gone to China.
Apparently, to copy the sophisticated weapons it took years. As a result of these creative torments only now in Iran I was born Soumar. It needs some time to adjust production. And if the day will also start positions under Latakia - will not find anyone. Neither Israel nor the United States. Washington has indeed there will be new reasons to wonder whether it was necessary to step "red line"?
* LIH - "Islamic State" by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation recognized as a terrorist organization, its activities in the territory of Russia is prohibited from December 29 2014 years.