On Wednesday in Brussels will host a meeting of the Russia - NATO - the first after the Crimea. For more than two years of open Russian geopolitical conflict and the West Board will meet for the first time. While NATO continues to play the theme of "Russian threat", atlantists want to show the Europeans that they are ready for a dialogue with Russia. Otherwise, it is already impossible to save Atlantic solidarity.
Contacts between Russia and NATO was in the spring of 2014-th - then Russia was declared a threat to peace, and attended Atlantic bloc alignment "protection against Putin's further expansion." Delusional - otherwise you will not name - warnings about the Russian threat the Baltic States and Poland for two years have become common place in the Atlantic propaganda.
And although a lot of intelligent American and European politicians and analysts all the time repeated that Russia's actions in Ukraine still can not be considered as an unprovoked (indeed, part of historical Russia gathered to subject European integration followed atlantizatsiey - that is Russian so nervous), on the general line NATO is not affected. The threat from the eastern flank became officially recognized - and this is the case when the "fact" invented by you, for some purposes, it becomes "true", that is, already requires specific actions.
Why do the Americans needed a myth about the Russian threat to the Baltic States and Poland? They had two aims - first, to make European allies-vassals to connect to the policy of isolation of Russia. It was necessary to organize a large-scale pressure on Moscow forces of the West - so powerful that Putin refused to fight for Ukraine. At the same time in Washington realized that the Crimea is not no going back - but hoped that seeing the united front of Western countries, Moscow accept the loss of the rest of Ukraine.
They were both naive and arrogant expectations - but the US were angered by the fact that Russia does not want to give the already "lost" Ukraine, and decided to play for high stakes. In large, because the stakes in this game becomes even Ukraine - so that it will not be able to withdraw under the Atlantic umbrella States actually non-publicly reconciled by the end of 2014 years, knowing even that may even lose it .
Bets Europe - no matter how loud it sounds. Because bullying own European allies, "Putin's aggression" - a dangerous thing: inspiring them with fear of a mythical threat and at the same time forcing the tear relations with Russia, the US risk that disgruntled such disregard of their interests then Europeans will remember his humiliation Washington. And when the spring slips mobilization anti-Russian, Atlantic unity can dramatically weaken, if not to crack.
Did Washington believe that there was a Russian threat to NATO's eastern flank? Of course, no - except for some very already Russophobic characters among the neocons. Believed in Europe in American tales? It is also not - except, of course, part of the political elites of Poland and the Baltic States, which, moreover, mainly played the American game based on the desire to raise the importance of their countries in the Atlantic table of ranks. Has the "eastern threat" worked, has it helped the Americans achieve their desired goals? By and large, no, on the contrary, the myth is already playing against them.
In the first stage anti-Russian hysteria has a tonic effect on the Europeans - after all there was a war in the east of Ukraine, and promotion that is only the first step in the Russian offensive to the west, partly fire. Centuries-old traditions of Russian image as a threat to Europe fueled a general atmosphere of fear. "Putin will capture the Baltic States, will threaten Poland, he wants to destabilize the whole of Europe" - and not a word about what the promotion of the Atlantic alliance to the east and provoked a split and the war in Ukraine.
But then the war in Ukraine largely ceased, the Europeans began to demand more sanctions and minimize the return to normal relations with Moscow. Stranglehold "Atlantic solidarity" still makes the European elite hold the line - but more and longer public discontent even by quite Atlanticist forces. At the same time almost all European countries are gaining strength Eurosceptics - most of which are in favor and against the dictates of the US and against quarrel with Russia.
The next year in key European countries, Germany and France will hold elections - and even Atlanticist policy will have to demonstrate to voters care about national interests. Most of them said that the conflict with Russia, it does not respond - and that's enough already to be obedient puppets of the Americans.
Especially as the United States itself in the last year in the open trying to negotiate with Russia, where they find it in their national interest - Iran, Syria. Europeans feel cheated - and no reminders about the "threat from the East" is no longer valid, even at the level of propaganda. Meanwhile, the US can no longer stay in operation "Russian factor" and use it only in the information war. We need to move from words to action - to demonstrate their concern for the security of Europe.
And in Warsaw, the decision on placement in the Baltic States and Poland, four battalions of NATO. From a purely military point of view it does not matter - it is clear that if Russia went crazy and attacked the country, several thousand NATO troops would have no serious resistance. It is purely a propaganda gesture - that is, you see, we are defending the eastern flank. From Russia? Yeah, well, you understand its aggressive nature. No, it turns out, do not understand - except Russophobes frank, no one believes in Russia's desire to attack the world's largest military alliance.
Even worse, do not believe in it and within the US - and more than likely win in November, Donald Trump may even lead to a review of US policy on Ukraine. No, not that the new president "will return" Russia Ukraine - but he has repeatedly said that it is a European problem, that is, face it, Europeans must together with the Russian.
But it is clear how it will solve Europe - if you imagine that it will allow yourself to negotiate with Moscow about the future Square, Ukraine will be suspended as a draw, neutral territory. In addition, Trump victory itself will be a major blow to the part of the Ukrainian elite, which relied on forcing a confrontation between the West and Russia - and, consequently, lead to a reformatting of the authorities in Kiev.
Not worked, "Eastern danger" and another important issue for the Atlanticist - work on the conclusion of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership. Agreement on the establishment of an "economic NATO" had to be signed before the end of this year - but it is already clear that this will not happen. The position of France and Germany, partly in fact led to the fact that a new phase of globalization - through trade and economic integration in the Anglo-Saxon terms of two sides of the Atlantic - turned out to be at least postponed.
In the post-election future that both the Old and the New World now seems much less Atlantic. National elites are trying to take revenge on the globalist forces - and it is likely that they will succeed in the coming year. Yes, revenge may be temporary - but in any case it will lead to a very severe test for the Atlantic bloc.
In these circumstances, the best tactic in Russian relations with atlantists is temporizing - the internal contradictions in the Western camp grow, while really working for us. Supporting nationally-oriented forces in the EU, working with various Western countries on a bilateral basis, playing on board with global supranational Anglo-Saxon elite, we are consistently improving their positions.
Given how we are weaker in institutional, government, financial and economic terms, how much worse were our initial position in confrontation with the Atlantic strategy, we can say that the game is made up of more than favorable for us.